Though he wasn't on the ballot in California's recall election, Trump was the big loser. Californians really like their governor. So do I. He's one of those who, regardless of whether it was politically popular or not, took the necessary steps advised by medical science to protect the people of his state from the spread of COVID-19. They responded by showing their gratutide and appreciation last night, giving him an even bigger mandate than he got when he was elected.
Mask and vaccine mandates won last night, and they won big. Contrary to them being "tyrannical" as the Republicans claim, they are seen as the best path forward toward the end of the pandemic. It will be that way across the whole country if COVID is still around in 2022. Whining about mask mandates and vaccine mandates is a loser, politically. More than just a handful of Republicans running for the Senate, for Congress or to be a state governor or legislator are on the verge of finding out just how many votes they are going to lose because their position on those issues isn't resonating with the voters.
But looking at the exit polling and some of the commentary from last night's election, it appears that one of the big factors driving Democratic voter turnout to record high levels for such an election is "the Trump factor." The man most likely to have become governor had Newsom lost the recall was a rabid, flag waving, nasty Trumpie, a guy who makes his living lying on Trump's behalf. And from mid-summer to the election, fear of getting someone in the governor's office who listened to and got his marching orders from Trump drove many Democrats and independent voters, along with some Republicans, to the polls to make sure that didn't happen.
The standard rhetoric about mid-term elections, you know, the "fact" that the party in power in the White House loses congressional and senate seats during the mid-terms, has already been floating around. Sometimes, it sounds like people just take that for granted. Turnout is everything. There is no way that Republicans can gain a foothold in Congress if the size of the Democratic electorate is in the neighborhood of the 81 million, as is was in 2020. It's pretty clear that the anti-Trump vote drives turnout among Democrats. So what are the implications of that?
We're at a point where any Republican victory at the federal level is going to mean a threat to voting rights. Republicans seem to believe that if people have the right to vote, they aren't going to win elections so they must change the laws to prevent elections from determining who serves in government. Any Republican is going to support something like that if they get elected. So that means Democrats have to be motivated to turn out and it seems that being anti-Trump does get the margins up where they need to be.
What happens if, as a result of the hearings on January 6, Trump winds up going to prison where he should be? Will that motivate Democrats to go to the polls?
I certainly hope that's not the case. I believe, at the very least, Trump's role in inciting January 6 should make him permanently ineligible to run for President, if it doesn't send him to prison as it should. Democrats should be motivated by the Republican threats to suppress the vote and what would be the certain loss of voting rights if they are in charge. The "big lie" has to be beaten into the ground by a turnout unlike any ever seen in a mid-term by the party in power.
Protecting the right to vote means turning out at the polls every time there is an election and casting a ballot.
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