Washington Post: GOP's "Dobbs Problem" Getting Worse
There's still plenty of evidence visible among Republicans in political campaigns to indicate that the outcome of the Kansas referendum on abortion rights was a lightning bolt that shocked the party to its core. The outcome defied just about every means of predicting it, including polling data and any predictable voter turnout. Both the turnout and the outcome came as a complete shock, especially to Republicans. The result has changed conventional thinking about where abortion now ranks on the scale of importance as a political issue, and how it will affect the outcome of the upcoming mid-term elections.
The GOP has invested most of its resources into a very traditional platform dependent on the long-established "trend" of the party in power losing control of Congress in the first mid-term after gaining the presidency. And earlier in the year, it appeared that the issues they've been banking on, like the economy in general, inflation in particular, might yield the traditional result, though to be honest, they really didn't have a post-Presidential election "bump" anywhere close to either the Democrats' 2006 or 2018 waves, or the notable 1994 GOP landslide following President Clinton's election.
Pollsters are still using the same kind of factors in their calculations of data, even as the surveys of voter enthusiasm on specific issues are showing that there are several strong pulls going against the Republicans, including the utter unpopularity of the Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade that has risen to the top of the voters' list, and the plethora of negativity surrounding everything Trump, who posts a much higher disapproval rating, and a much lower approval rating, than President Biden, who never got close to those numbers at his very worst point.
If you want to gauge the true effect of Dobbs on what's driving voters to the polls, look no further than the campaign platforms of multiple GOP candidates in swing states and swing districts, where the anti-abortion position has disappeared from their stump speeches, media ads and card-stock mailers. Here and there, the effect of Trump negativity is also creeping in as the "big lie" seems to be fading from those same campaigns and speeches. And where it appears Republicans have become locked-in on Trumpism, candidates are seeing their poll numbers drop, while their Democratic opponents make gains and the extremist media now must rely on outliers and obscure far right pollsters in their reporting.
The 1994 Effect
It's an unpleasant memory, but if you recall the GOP's campaign theme in 1994, "Contract with America," led by Newt Gingrich, the Republicans defied the conventional wisdom and polling data by putting a campaign in place that energized the base and motivated voter turnout while Democrats were counting on the status quo to "hold" the line. The Republicans got their voters out and picked up independent support while the Democrats were devastated by an apathetic showing, losing districts and seats that were considered "safe" by the polling data.
The issues used by the GOP to flip 54 house seats and 9 senate seats seem ironic now, but were related to cutting taxes and government spending. Painting Clinton as a "tax and spend" liberal, pointing to his first term proposals as more of the same, the party leadership was credited with controlling the narrative, sticking with the "tax and spend," cut taxes and streamline government theme, and they suceeded in making it stick. Clinton's failure to get his health security plan enacted, introduced in 1993, was cited as the main reason for Democratic party division and apathy and for what turned out to be an unusually low turnout among Democratic voters.
The combination of negatives on the Republican side at this point, primarily the effects of the January 6th hearings, which, in spite of Republican rhetoric, has had a major effect on public opinion, far more than they will admit to, particularly among independent voters along with the Dobbs decision, overturning Roe v. Wade, are the two biggest negatives for the GOP. These factors are undergirding all of the negative on the Republican side, creating a solid base of voters that is expanding rapidly as voter registration since the decision was handed down has surpassed the gains claimed by the GOP last spring.
A Competent Presidential Administration and Congressional Leadership is a Democratic Party Advantage
Democrats have not been sitting idly by on their hands, watching the political situation develop this time, as they did in 1994. We have yet another competent and experienced President in the White House, who brought with him experienced leadership. They know how inflation works, how it has affected the economy, and they've been actively working to bring those numbers down, while helping the supply chain recover from its COVID pandemic malaise, bringing government resources to bear. And what they are doing is working.
Nancy Pelosi's leadership in the house, helping to move legislation along and getting it passed is defeating Republican obstructionism. The President did an outstanding job of managing the situation, giving the reluctant Democratic senators enough rope to wrap around their necks and finally feel some pressure to act. They're beginning to see that the day is not far off when they're going to become irrelevant, and that's opened the door to the Biden Administration being able to lay claim to having had one of the most effective and productive legislative first terms since the 1960's.
That hasn't come easy. But it has been helped along by the fact that the mountain of corruption now being revealed from the previous administration is growing, and people are being made aware, once again by Democratic congressional leadership, of just how bad and dangerous the past four years have been to the continued existence of the United States as a free country and as a democracy. The January 6th Committee Hearings were among some of the greatest moments in all of Congressional political history. The uncovering of this massive corruption not only justified the two impeachments brought by the house under Pelosi's leadership, but it has confirmed the accuracy of the Mueller investigation. More importantly, it put just the right amount of information in just exactly the right way to hit public opinion exactly where it could be used most effectively. And it is a huge reason behind why any traces of a Republican advantage in the 2022 mid-term elections has vanished.
The Dobbs decision was monumental. It has led to the voter registration advantage that was being experienced by the GOP to be wiped out, and to millions of new voters planning to head to the polls with women's rights at the top of their priority list. The President has engaged in the debate in what appears to be an incredibly effective manner which links his administration to the issue that is energizing Democrats and independents. We are seeing a presidential administration working on behalf of the people while at the same time mobilizing its political strength. Did we ever expect anything less from President Joe Biden? You'll note, from reading The Signal Press that our support for, and confidence in this President has never wavered.
Obvious and Not-So-Obvious Signs of a Coming Democratic Storm
I don't want to sound cynical, but our country worships the dollar. It was founded as an economic colony of an empire, a place where people could exploit resources to make money for a King to make him happy while keeping a larger share for themselves than the old system permitted. Americans put their money where their mouth is, or at least, where their interests lie. And the Democrats are collecting campaign funds from a much broader, wider, larger segment of the population than the Republicans are doing right now.
I personally know Republicans who won't give through some of the party's regular channels because they're not sure it will actually go to help Republicans win elections. In spite of all of the loyalty to Trump and all of that rhetoric, the kind of trust necessary to sustain that kind of support doesn't exist on the Republican side at all. While they might mutter about the media exaggerating Trump's financial condition, they aren't putting a lot of their campaign cash in the party channels. But Democrats certainly are. Instead of using polling data to measure voter enthusiasm, use campaign contributions.
The President is a welcome sight on the campaign trail. Democratic candidates welcome his presence. And he's got a message that's right on target. A surge in his approval ratings has helped boost the chances of Democrats in November. Republicans, not just in obscure corners, but the more prominent party leaders, are openly whining that Trump's insistence on inserting himself into the election process, against their recommendations, is hurting their party's chances.
I agree. He is. So keep the rallies going.
From my own experience and knowledge of history and political science, I know that gathering and reporting polling data is complicated. It seems simple enough, but it is difficult to get a genuine cross section of political opinion without the factoring and running of models that are used by most pollsters. What we have access to see on the internet tends to reflect the past trends and the rolling averages of the polling data at any given time. What lags behind is the effect of specific events, such as the "bump" that comes after party convention coverage in the media, or the Supreme Court's ruling overturning Roe. The full effect of that has not yet been seen, with many states not having changed any laws or requirements at this point. It's taken more than a month for abortion rights to rise to the top of the list of priorities for voters going into November's elections. The polling data is certainly encouraging for Democrats, but I don't believe we've yet seen the full effect of the Dobbs decision on either turnout or what the voters are planning to do.
The surge in voter registration, which is somewhat vaguely reported since the data varies from state to state, is perhaps the most encouraging sign that the Democrats are on the cusp of what will be a major victory. Those who register to vote in the wake of an issue like the overturning of Roe are more than likely planning to cast a ballot. Those numbers heavily favor Democratic candidates especially in hard line right wing states where a shift of a hundred thousand ballots could mean the difference between a loss or a win.
A Reverse 1994, Complete With Some Notable Upsets, Is Possible
What I'm not expecting is a 54 seat gain in the house and 9 seats in the Senate, though I would be very happy if that happened. But I think, at this point, it's no longer going out on a limb to say that Democrats are likely to keep control of both houses of Congress. There will be more surprises, like Alaska, where the numbers and the data indicate that Mary Peltola will keep that seat and expand the win she got the first time around. Speaker Tom Foley lost his seat in 1994, wouldn't it be nice if the same thing happened to Kevin McCarthy?
The polling trends show a sharply divided America, something not likely to change soon, with the conspiracy theories and outright lies circulated by extremist media. The "big lie" still has some support, though there have been some Republican candidates who, after winning a primary nomination, have backed off of that, along with their anti-abortion rhetoric. But the movement of voter momentum is favoring Democratic candidates and the trend line is moving up, while it has started to decline on the Republican side. I like what the DNC is doing to keep the momentum moving forward, and I'm particularly pleased to see President Biden taking the time and making the effort to get involved. Some Republicans aren't issuing invitations to Trump to help them out.
We need the Democrats to win, and then to make sure that those who want to hijack American Democracy are completely disabled. There are a lot of things on my agenda, including modifying the Judicial Act to add seats to the Supreme Court and the federal bench, abolish the electoral college, make social security and medicare untouchable, establish health security for all Americans and take federal elections out of the hands of state legislatures. For any of that to be possible, I have to vote, and so does anyone else who desires to protect the constitution and their freedom.
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