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Thursday, September 15, 2022

Polls. Lots of Them. So Which Ones To Trust.

President, General Election, You Gov September 2-6. 1,200 registered voters, Biden 48%, Trump 42%.  

Generic Ballot, September 3-6, You Gov, 1,337 Likely Voters, Democrat 44, Republican 38.  Two other polls from You Gov, same time period with 1,600 adults, and 1,244  registered voters are both +5 Democrat.  

This one is remarkable, considering the source. 

September 1-5, Rasmussen, 1,500 likely voters, Joe Biden approval 45%, Disapprove 53%, a -8 margin but it's conservative Rasmussen which is always a conservative outlier.  An Economist poll from the same time period, of 1,377 registered voters shows Trump disapproval at 57%. 

Those numbers are all much better for Democrats than they were three months ago, and since many of the polls depend on averages, with the trends moving Democrats ahead in some cases by as much as a 10 point swing, the trend 

Then there's this:  Biden job approval jumps to 49%

And something to really make Republicans mad, the price of gas dropped 20 cents since Labor Day.  


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