It's early, but with a 24 hour cable news cycle and several Republicans taking a shot at becoming the nominee of their party instead of their most recent failure, there's a lot of information floating around, and a lot of reaction to it, that provides some insight into the possible outcome of the 2024 election. I have my own sources and they have served me well. And it's my conclusion, from observation, that Democrats will find themselves in control of both houses of Congress and the Presidency after the dust clears from the 2024 election.
Here's why.
Culture Wars Don't Win Elections at the National Level
Part of the problem with those who want to run on the "culture war" themes is that they have to exaggerate the effect of the problem. Most of the claims aren't credible and there's too much content that comes from conspiracy theories. It's hard to convince people that there's such a thing as a "Jewish space laser" and when that gets mixed in with everything else, it zaps the credibility with most voters. Sure, there are people willing to believe anything that certain sources tell them. But they're not a majority.
The biggest culture war issue of all came completely unraveled in 2022 with the Dobbs decision being handed down from the Supreme Court prior to the election. The issue of abortion rights has always come with a significant number of complications and exceptions and even some conservatives recognize that the medical ethics alone makes laws without exceptions have consequences for all women, not just those considering an abortion.
And in a democracy where religious liberty is a constitutional guarantee that works both ways, the belief that life begins at conception is rooted in religious principle. Can the government force women to accept consequences their own conscience wouldn't choose? Can it establish an exclusively religious principle, that life begins at conception, as law? Clearly, a majority of Americans do not think so. Most conservatives raise abortion to the highest priority when they vote and it became apparent in the 2022 election, with the impact of the Dobbs decision, that just as many of those who hold the opposite view have also raised it to one of their highest priorities when choosing a candidate.
Michael Moore picked up on this and said so, right before the midterms. He was right. Republicans, expecting a landslide and openly talking about more extreme agenda plans prior to the election got caught off guard, not only by the narrowness of their house win, but by the fact that they lost one additional senate seat. That rarely happens in a midterm, and if a couple of the state branches of the Democratic party had picked up on the trend, instead of thinking in traditional terms, there might not be a Republican majority in the house, either.
Election Denying is a Loser, Too
Trump's most strategically placed, high profile election deniers in battleground states not only lost, but the poor quality of the candidates themselves were the cause of election losses. Kari Lake, whose only qualifications were having read off a teleprompter during newscasts, and who wouldn't agree to an unscripted, open debate with specific rules and a neutral moderator, lost in spite of being the beneficiary of huge amounts of out of state money. Among the cluster of similar Trump endorsed election deniers, she stands out as the biggest loser.
Look closer at the loss. In Arizona, where Republican voters still outnumber Democrats, though the margin is shrinking quickly, and where turnout was higher than previous midterm elections, Lake lost because a big Democratic surge paired with Republican ticket splitters to give Katie Hobbs a narrow margin. The estimates of Republican voters who picked Democrats at the top of the ticket in Arizona, because Lake and Blake Masters, who ran against Mark Kelly for the Senate seat, only aired Trump grievances was in double digits, at 11%, compared to only 5% of Democrats who split their tickets.
Lake's subsequent law suits have allowed election officials in Maricopa County, where she challenged the vote totals, to lay out the evidence that it was a clean election, followed all the rules, everyone had a chance to have their ballot count, and all the normal glitches and problems did not result in a single disenfranchised voter. She's done the election board in the county, mostly Republicans as well, a huge favor, as they have had repeated public opportunities to show just how clean and accurate election counts are in Maricopa County, with evidence.
The same thing has happened in Michigan where Democrats won a sizeable majority as voters surged to the polls against election deniers and as a statement against armed terrorists who thrive on conspiracy theories. Governor Gretchen Whitmer put herself into consideration in conversations about future presidential aspirations as a result of the clean sweep of objectives. Michigan voters responded to the revelations of a kidnapping and torture attempt on her, to armed terrorists showing up in the state capitol building for intimidation purposes, and to a high profile school shooting in Oxford.
With few exceptions, this is the trend around the country.
The Republicans Aren't Offering Anything
Look what we got from CPAC this week. Nothing. They offer nothing except griping about other people's liberty. The fact that a lot of Republicans seeking the nomination for President bypassed this forum says a lot about their perception of its effectiveness. Frankly, most of the media attention it got, including the coverage on MSNBC, and on the Sunday morning shows, was way overblown. Why cover something like that? It wasn't news, they could have just replayed any of a dozen Trump speeches from the past couple of months and got the same thing. That's not a campaign aimed at getting votes, it's one aimed at trying to keep the shrinking base from getting smaller.
The sources I look at, which are not all election analysist, but which have a solid record of accurate predictions, which include Michael Moore, Rachel Bitecofer, and Nate Silver, also includes a scattering of politicians. One of whom I respect tremendously, and who is always on target with predictions and also with bold moves, is Congressman Eric Swalwell. When it becomes available, I'll post a clip of his comments made on Medhi Hassan's show on MSNBC tonight. He has the ear of the DNC, and what he had to say really resonated with me. He's credible on his own, but the Republicans have noticed something that has made him a particularly hated target of theirs.
But the key piece here is that I believe Trump will be facing indictments and trials that will eventually bring him down with convictions and sentences. I have no insider information, I just have trust that America is still America, and that our justice system will work and the will of the people will result in fair trials and convictions for all the crimes he committed. And when he goes, it will bring down what has been propping up a lot of the hangers-on for a while. People like Lindsay Graham, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, the fawning sycophants like Greene, Gaetz and Boebert, will fall into the political hell he created right along with him.
So cheer up, my friends. There's a silver lining in the over-coverage of the 2024 Presidential election. The lack of unity in the GOP and the lack of any substance in what they are offering is a fountain of cheer for Democrats who seem to finally be getting complete control of the narrative, and are taking advantage of the confusion and chaos in the Republican party. There's even some optimism over the fact that the Missouri Senate seat up for election in 2024, held by Josh Hawley, may actually be in play. And I'm looking forward to who might be the Democratic challenger to Ted Cruz in Texas.
And yes, I'll go ahead and say it. From my mouth to God's ears. Heads up! It's all good.
No comments:
Post a Comment