Ohio has always been one of those "other places" in my life. I was about 2 years old the first time I was ever in the state, but I don't remember much about that experience. We had relatives there, some of my Dad's family had migrated there from West Virginia, in the post-war period, including my grandmother. They lived in and around Cleveland, so I do have memories of being there. I do remember that there was quite a contrast between the grity, inner city of Cleveland, where three of my Dad's cousins were raising their families, while working in the steel mills and being very, very active in the unions, and the town of Wooster, in rural Wayne County, where my grandmother had settled with her husband, my Dad's step-father, who was born and raised there.
They were 40 miles apart, but two different worlds. And it's still like that.
It's one of the political quirks of American history that no Republican has been elected President of the United States, since World War 2, without carrying the state of Ohio. It has an interesting history that has made it an influential state in American politics, being in the "Western Reserve," territory opened for settlement on what was the far western frontier during the colonial period. The climate and landscape make it ideal for agriculture, it's geographic location, accessible to Lake Erie and the Ohio River, as major transportation routes, also made it ideal for industry.
I think it is also a political quirk that President Obama carried the state both times he ran, in 2008 and 2012, and in fact, in 2012 it was Ohio that put him over the top with enough electoral votes to win after the state was called, but Donald Trump carried it on his way to the White House in 2016. The political dynamics which changed the outcome there, as much as it was changed, had to be quite an inexplicable abnormality. Even now, commentary on what happened there in 2016 is not easy to find.
Was the Special Election in Ohio This Week a "Bellwether"?
There's been a lot of talk about Ohio this week on radio talk shows and news programs, especially those I listen to on progressive radio and on mostly MSNBC on television, or satellite feeds. It's the latest in a series of red states where the issue of abortion rights has produced a result that has shocked, and frightened, Republicans and encouraged Democrats. And I've heard everything from this being a clear indication of the coming blue landslide, to extreme caution, noting that there's still an actual referendum to be voted on regarding abortion, that this was just a preliminary tactic to try and make it harder for the votes of the people to count down the road.
This is really a double hurrah for Ohio Democrats. Not only does it protect the will of the people by keeping the referendum standard at a simple majority, which is huge and an open door for democracy to work well, especially when a single party has manipulated the system, but it also subjects the incredible gerrymandering that has been done, worse than just about any other state, to referendum as well. Republican leadership in the state has been livid since the outcome was announced, and I mean livid. Only the govnernor, who is kind of an old-line Republican, was realistic about it. Everyone else was the victim of exploding heads.
And yes, it is a bellwether.
Democrats, in a state where the party's fortunes haven't been promising since 2012, fought against dark money from outside the state and won a difficult special election by getting their voters to turn out, and by controlling the narrative in such a way as to get a reasonably high turnout of independent voters to take their side and vote with them. It was simply a referendum to raise the threshold required for constitutional referendums from a simple majority to an impossible 60%, but Democrats tied it to necessary changes coming up which need to be made to the Ohio Constitution. So this was an issue to protect the will of the people, and in an odd year, August special election, it got over 3 milllion voters to the polls.
How Did They Get it Done?
Election Results August 8 Referendum in Ohio by County
This wasn't supposed to be identified as a partisan vote, but it most certainly was. Democrats would be pleased with a map of Ohio that looks like this one for the 2024 election. Two things happened. One, the turnout in heavily Democratic counties with the larger cities was a good bit over the threshold needed to win statewide with the turnout for this particular vote. But, the Democrats got a larger than their usual percentage of voters out in suburban counties as well, and picked up half a dozen counties that usually vote Republican, like Delaware County north of Columbus, and Medina County south of Cleveland. In fact, all across the Lake Erie shoreline, from Toledo to the Pennsylvania border, the No vote carried every county. That bodes well for Democrats.
And I think the big key here is getting Democrats to turn out even in deep red counties where local races might not be competitive, or where there might not be Democrats running for some offices. The party needs to encourage and help candidates run everywhere because the 16,015 voters who cast a "no" ballot in Clark County, a rural area in west centra Ohio, outnumbered the 16,014 voters who cast a "yes" ballot. In the Presidential election, or a statewide Senate election, getting that many Democratic votes out of what is normally a 65% Republican county would significantly dent a Republican's chances of winning statewide.
Democrats win when the voter turnout is high. This is some kind of record for an August special election in Ohio. Looking at other recent special elections in red states, most over abortion rights, it's been a clean sweep for Democrats.
Is There Significance Beyond Ohio
This makes me pretty optimistic looking ahead at the election season as it shapes up for 2024. I tend to agree with Edwin Eisendrath, the Saturday afternoon host on WCPT 820 in Chicago, that Democrats are on the political offensive, the relentless removal of individual rights by far right wingers, and the echoes of the past from the Trump Presidency, along with their current approach to politics, which is to put failure at the high point in the party, have taken their toll on voters. Democrats are getting hold of the messaging and the narrative, and this cluster of local and regional electoral successes will be reflected nationally as the 2024 election approaches.
I'm personally hoping that Trump is disqualified from running for office by conviction on the indictments that have rained down on him. But I have growing confidence that 2024 is shaping up to be a blue wave, and that following the victory, Democrats double down on the legislative precautions that need to be put in place to keep these kind of shenanigans from happening again. The United States is not immune to ideological attacks on its democracy. It must be constitutionally and legally protected. The idea that someone could incite an insurrection against Congress, interfere with the process of counting ballots in a legitimate election, solicit and accept foreign interference in a Presidential campaign and still be allowed to run for office is abhorent in a country that claims to be a nation of laws.
It's not just the danger posed to abortion rights by the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade that is causing this surge. That's certainly a big part of the picture. But voters are seeing this draconian agenda of censorship and cutrailment of individual rights and freedom of expression, much of it coming from news about what's going on in Florida, and it's waking up a younger generation of voters who are determined to keep their freedom in tact.
In spite of obstacles which include getting network news time and media coverage, the other side of this issue contains the whole picture of Joe Biden's accomplishments as President of the United States. And in spite of hard-line partisan thinking which makes it impossible to compliment someone from the other party, because of the hatred and the lies that divide us, the fact of the matter is that we are living in one of the most effective Presidential administrations since World War 2. That also gives me confidence that whatever we might have to put up with during the next presidential campaign, Trump won't ever again see the inside of the White House.
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