Follow-up on the Weekend Polling Data: No Hand-Wringing Here, Just Caution

In yesterday's post, Weekend Polls are a Wake-Up Call for Democrats, the Signal Press acknowledged the inaccuracy of early polling data, compared with the prior record of pollsters.  It's a year away, all of the polls are within their margins of error, and it is too early to start wringing hands and conceding elections that are a long way off.  

But, given Trump's record, the prosecutions, his post-election behavior and his open attempts to steal a legitimate, fair election, combined with his continued harping about it as the only theme he has for a campaign for re-election, I think we should be disturbed by the fact that Biden is not 20 percentage points ahead at this point, and running away with it.  That is concerning, considering that the President has been among the most successful and accomplished in several decades, and Trump has been the most corrupt.  

I have confidence that the Biden campaign staff, the President himself, and the Democratic party, are looking at all of this, analyzing it and figuring out how to approach the data they consider credible.  Personally,  I will do everything I can do, from blogging and promoting the blog, to engaging on social media, to talking to people, to making phone calls, knocking on doors and committing a percentage of my income to campaign donations, to make sure that Biden gets a second term, and the Democrats get control of of both houses.  We can't let up and we have to make the right choices.  There's too much at stake. 

Part of that process means taking a look at what is happening, being realistic about it, and changing what needs to be changed.  

Perception can be Deceiving

Trying to figure out why the prosecutions and information about Trump's corruption, and there's a mountain of damning evidence, doesn't seem to contribute to peeling off any of his core support can be frustrating.  But it's pretty simple.  They see this as political revenge for his winning in 2016 and as an attempt to keep him off the ballot.  They've already looked past the fraud and corruption that is characteristic of his entire adult life and passed on all of that to make deals to get what they want in exchange for feeding his power hungry cravings.  The charges, upcoming trials and all of the information about his corruption have likely convinced everyone who see it for what it is.  

I've even heard some Democratic commentators say that maybe it is too much, and he should be let off the hook in order to focus more on defeating him based on his incompetence and inability to function as President.  I was horrified to hear this, which amounts to a complete abandonment of American justice.  I'm already disgusted with the games that have been played by this, the foot dragging and the slowness of the process that runs counter to effective justice.  But this is where we are.  And playing the persecuted victim of a witch hunt is among the things that he can actually do well.  

Covering up Everything in the News Cycle

Yesterday's post mentioned the fact that Joe Biden is very likely the first President in modern American history to serve three years in office and be in the complete shadow of his predecessor with regard to media coverage.  The fact that many conservatives consider the mainstream media controlled by far left wing liberals is a laughable joke.  They are controlled by commercial interests and money and dependent on ratings.  So the soap opera and drama surrounding this totally corrupt and worldly former President gets two thirds of the time devoted to political coverage on every major network, and it's a 24 hour a day rerun on the outlets controlled by far right wing extremist conservatives.  

This is where Democrats lose the ability to control the narrative.  Hard line conservatives aren't paying attention to mainstream media anyway, that's no longer the most effective way to carry a political message to the people.  And until Democrats figure out how to get control of this again, and reduce the Trump soap opera to its rightful place while getting the President double the face time, this will be a nagging problem.  It is one of the reasons I believe Trump is still considered a viable candidate. 

The Effect of Foreign Relations

Ukraine, and now Israel-Hamas, would be turning into unmitigated disasters for the United States, as well as for those involved, if Trump were President.  But both of them have been the victims of the propaganda war that Republicans are controlling.  The rally in Washington this weekend should also have been a huge wake-up call to Democrats, and to the President.  The irony of the situation is that the Republican Party and Donald Trump are the sworn enemies of every single protester who participated in that protest.  A Trump Presidency would be devastating to both the Americans in the protest, and to the people of Gaza and any hope Palestinians might have for reprieve.  

But there they are, and that's not a good look for unity within the Democratic party, nor for American idealism and humanitarianism.  And it has the potential to be explosive come election time. 

There is an Erosion of Support 

Biden has only temporarily been able to shake the effect of a job approval rating hovering in the low 40% range.  The consistency that is showing up in most polls is that his approval is sagging among constituencies that are more progressive and further left, but that are going to be essential to unite to win the election.  That would include younger voters, under 35, African Americans and Latinos.  He needs more than 58% of the Latino vote, 78% of the black vote and 65% of the younger vote, which is where those numbers run pretty consistently across the board now, in order to win.  

Trump has given working class Americans absolutely no reason at all to vote for him.  He won in 2016 on the strength of their vote, and then turned around and sold them out in the first year of his Presidency with a tax cut for the very rich, saddling most of the working class with tax increases, reduction in government benefits and dropping wages.  And they still supported him in 2020, out of a lack of awareness, and because Republicans controlled the narrative enough to shift the focus to conservative social issues.  

The temporary effect of the shock of overturning Roe v. Wade is wearing off.  It helped Democrats avoid a red wave during the mid-terms, and it has helped Democrats win the lion's share of elections since then.  But more is needed if the President is to be re-assured of his re-election.  And if this poll does nothing else, I hope that it gets the attention of every Democrat in the Biden White House and in his campaign and gets them working on building back a coalition that clearly needs shoring up.  

A Little Optimism Goes a Long Way

These are the kind of moments that turn things around.  The fact that everything going on around Trump should be giving Biden a 20 point lead means that the potential is still there for that to happen.  People need to find this out on their own terms.  Trump isn't gaining support, and his negative numbers don't get smaller.  But in the midst of inflation, expanding war and a lot of social confusion, the Democrats need to get their message out and demonstrate their commitment to democracy and to the people.  So here, in what's going on, is the motivation to get this moving, now.  

The Biden Campaign will apparently be very well funded and capable of a ground game, especially in battleground states, that are necessary to the electoral college win.  He's outraising Trump by a considerable amount, and right now, not spending it on a primary run.  That's how Obama won in 2012 over Romney, who had a five point lead in the polls and was in control of all of the "battleground" states in November of 2011.  

Inevitably, Trump will do or say something to alienate potential marginal voters.  With two major trials coming up in the spring, where the potential for sabotaging himself is unlimited, no doubt there will be a lot of votes lost by Trump as a result.  He can't help it.  

But I would like to see the Biden Administration, hard upon this news, become more pro-active in reaching out and resolving problems that are election sticking points.  That would give those of us who are big supporters a measure of much needed confidence right about now.  Trump has nothing to offer any of the constituencies where there is apparent erosion of support for Biden at the moment.  They're not turning to Trump, they're asking for another Democrat to be the candidate.  And the message I see in that is for Biden to become the other Democrat they're looking for.