As late as Thursday evening, on Alex Wagner's MSNBC time, conversation was still focusing on the New York Times-Siena College, CBS and CNN polls that came out over the previous weekend, suggesting, from however they decided to factor the data they collected, that Donald Trump might have a slight lead over Joe Biden in five of six battleground states. Several other polls from that same period of time came up with a different conclusion from their factoring of the data, including one from a marketing and law firm in Arizona that suggested Biden might be ahead by as much as 10 points in that state, but the media, almost all of them, seemed determined to create a laser focus on these three polls.
I'll give credit where credit is due. Jen Psaki and Nicole Wallace, both of MSNBC, both with experience working inside a Presidential administration on, among other things, diseminating information from polling data, pointed out inconsistencies and flaws in the data that was reported, and noted that these polls in particular, especially the Times-Siena, have had a poor record of accuracy with their numbers this far ahead of an election. Good for them, and for whoever was listening.
Apparently, the Biden Administration was also annoyed by the incessant nattering of negativity, and issued their own statement, pointing out that the coverage seemed one sided, since the data wasn't conclusive. But the fascination with these polls, and somehow getting some kind of jump on everyone else's reporting, led to some embarassing moments for those who kept harping on them.
An Election is Actual Voter Data, but a Poll is Only Speculation
Tuesday night rolled around, and some news outlets had been bold enough to cast doubt over potential election results in Virginia, Kentucky and Ohio, as a result of the data from these polls, hinting that a poor showing by Democrats would be a bad omen for Biden's campaign. Conversely, if that were the case, it seems that a good night for Democrats would be good news for the strength of Biden's campaign, and of his position, since he is the undisputed leader of the Democratic party right now and that would be an accurate statement. Only a couple of commentators, MSNBC again, seemed willing to take that step.
Solid wins for Democrats materialized very early in the evening. Before Lawrence O'Donnell had the opportunity to come on at 9:00 p.m. central time and do an excellent job of demonstrating how these wins were indicators of the strength of Biden's administration and its achievements, the results had already conformed it. Even in Mississippi, where the Democratic candidate for governor lost, the vote totals he secured, compared to the previous Presidential races, were an impressive display of Democratic party advances and strength.
So much for the polls, right? Well, no. A smashing humiliation of the Republican party aside, news commentators, who apparently didn't plan very well ahead, and didn't anticipate the impact of those election results, turned back for another go at the polls. Alex Wagner even gave some time to trying to draw comparisons and contrasts between the data from the polls and the results of the election and left a lot of conclusions hanging, including the most obvious one, that these polls are outliers.
A Real Conclusion
I'm only a journalism minor, and an amateur. My observations don't follow the dictates of a commercial news outlet's sense of direction. What I've noticed is that since Joe Biden won the Presidency in 2020, and the Democrats took full control of Congress at the same time, the Republicans have had some of the toughest election battles in, literally decades. There are few bright spots that they can point to and say, "here's a sign we're on the rebound." They eked out a narrow majority in the house, flipping fewer seats than the minority party has achieved in mid-term elections going back to even before the Reagan Adminisration. And it isn't improving, it's getting worse, and eating into their majorities in states that have long been red.
What can I conclude about this week? The election results do not match the media's evaluation of the position of the Biden administration and his candidacy for President.
Some pollsters probably need to revamp and re-evaluate their factoring methods, and their gathering of data. Some news commentators and news outlets need to spend some time changing their narrative.
The Republican Party needs to figure out what went wrong and make adjustments. And that should leave us all rolling on the floor, laughing.
Doubling Down on a Losing Agenda
It didn't take the GOP very long to go right back to the mess that cost them dearly in 2020, and again in 2022, and now in 2023. One day. On Wednesday, the Republican candidates for President, sans the alleged front-runner, doubled down on themes that voters have repeatedly told them, with their ballots, will not win elections. Not only that, but voters also told them, through a series of local elections, that their attempts to suppress votes and subvert the will of the people will not be tolerated either.
The Republican party is losing for several very clear reasons. One, it is still dominated by Trump, and as long as that is the case, it will not win elections, no matter what the polls say. The extremism, while appearing to have a following among hard core Trumpie supporters, doesn't appeal to anyone who isn't a hard core Trumpie, and that's a clear majority of the population and the electorate. So no matter what the "factoring" issues might be, to get numbers to move in a particular direction, it is pretty obvious that a clear majority of those who go to the polls will not support anything associated with the Trump brand.
At the ballot box, by the way, that involves the vast majority of Democrats, somewhere around 65% of Independent voters, and about 10% of Republicans. Stick that in your poll data and smoke it
The biggest mistake the current dysfunctional Supreme Court ever made was to wade into politics and overturn Roe v. Wade. Regardless of which side of the issue one takes, messing with settled law, that has been established for 50 years, is not a good political move. It has not achieved the purpose those conservatives who have advocated for its overturning envisioned, and it now, very clearly, will not achieve that goal. I have little doubt that if the issue appeared on the ballot as an initiative in Florida or Texas, voters would put the right to choose right back into the law.
And we haven't even come to the issue of the economy. Yes, the Biden administration is having quite a time dealing with inflation, and perceptions of an economy that isn't working. But inflation doesn't happen in a functioning economy, it's a symptom of prosperity and growth. That's why raising interest rates, which slows the economy down, is one solution to slowing the inflation rate. The Biden adminstration has succeeded in doing that, by the way, precariously but it's working.
What is it that the Republicans have proposed to deal with the problem? That is, if they have time and can get to it between their frivilous time wasting in Congress right now. I haven't heard anything yet, so post a comment and let me know if they ever come up with something productive and useful. Right now, they're mired in pointless minutia.
Another Loser Joins the Presidential Race
And what a perfect week it was for Jill Stein to decide that she will accept the Green Party's nomination for President once again. If there's a candidacy with less direction and purpose than Donald Trump's, it would be this one.
The Green Party has some good ideas, but has no idea at all how to implement them. It seems they exist for "getting their ideas out there," but fall very short of even that goal, much less actually achieving something. Stein successfully helped Trump win the White House in 2016 by syphoning off enough votes that could have gone to Hillary Clinton in the three states she needed to win. Now in all fairness, it's not a foregone conclusion that Green party voters would have picked Clinton. Stein's fascination with and closeness to Putin casts some suspicion on her motives and those who are aware of this aren't likely to support a Democrat. But what is clear is that a Clinton presidency would have been far more sympathetic to, and far more willing to listen to Green party issues, than Trump would be, and that makes them pretty darn stupid for running a candidate of their own.
From Trump, the Green Party gets contempt and less than nothing, and so nominating Stein again is a demonstration of bithering ignorance and stupidity. Albert Einstein said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Jill Stein will run again, will get fewer votes this time than she got last time, a prediction you can take to the bank without a single poll to support it, and she will lose again. That's insane. A vote for her is a vote for Trump and that theme needs to be at the core of the Democratic party's political campaign in 2024.
And We Move Forward with Optimism
For Democrats, it was a great week. It's time, as Paul Waldman of the Washington Post said on Wednesday, for Democrats to start trusting the courage of their convictions, and show some confidence in their strength. For all of the hoopla surrounding Trump, and the media's fascination with how it is that people think that's something of value, the Democrats have had the most success against Republicans in politics since Trump has co-opted the party's politics.
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