Primary season begins soon, though we are still 320-some odd days away from election day in 2024, and though in American politics, where just enough opinion along the margins can change in a short period of time, there are some things happening in politics that point to the formation of a nice "blue wave" beginning to develop for 2024. And yes, it's pretty visible after a couple of months of gloom and doom for Democrats, brought on by some selective emphasis on a few prominent polls, several, which used the term "red wave" to describe the 2022 mid-term elections up to within just a few actual days prior to the election itself, when no red wave, or anything like what was predicted, actually occurred.
There's a segment of the American electorate that lives isolated in its own media bubble, unaware of real live events or what's actually happening in politics. That's a problem, of course, but that whole segment is not large enough to win on the kind of nationwide scale that would be necessary to claim victory. The doom and gloom polls started coming out in October, suddenly, and with no real rational as to why there was such a shift in public opinion all of a sudden. Then, we had off-year elections which some media pundits jumped out to say were a "referendum on the Biden administration." That was before the results were in, and the impression that the media wanted to create was that it wouldn't be a strong endorsement. After all, their polls were showing doom and gloom and their prognostications on the elections, specifically in Ohio, Kentucky and Virginia, two red states and a purple one, weren't good for Democrats.
If that were the case, then it was a rather resounding referendum, right in the teeth of the polling data. Afterward, there was some backing down from the "referendum" talk. Well, the results didn't fit the media poll results, nor their predictions. So the "refererendum" talk died down.
Trump is going to get beat in the 2024 election, and the Republicans will struggle mightily to maintain their House majority, something I don't think they will get back. In all likelihood, the Democratic senate majority will remain slim, but intact. And yeah, I'm optimistic, but I think there's good reason to be this way.
The President has achieved a long list of accomplishments, due to his experience in politics, that have greatly benefitted the American people, among them, a series of policies which have led to a growing, roaring economy.
These achievements cannot be overstated. They have provided much needed improvement and they have generated the most prosperous economy we have had in ages. His success in dealing with the COVID pandemic stands alone in contrast to the blithering incompetence of his predecessor and that alone is reason enough to re-elect him. But the economy, in spite of inflation, is roaring. In fact, a roaring economy produces inflation. When there's lots of money to grab, the grabbers are game.
Then there is inflation, a.)which the President said would take time to deal with but which would eventually come down and b.)which is the result of a prosperous economy, and c.) which is now coming down as a direct result of what the President's policies did to make it happen.
The political phrase, "It's the economy, stupid," is countered by the fact that a majority of Americans are bored by economic facts, and that just makes it easier to blame whoever is in the White House, even though they don't have that much control over the economy. For whatever it's worth, the propaganda being spread about people not feeling that the economy is prosperous is countered by the fact that they are buying a lot more stuff and they are working.
So keep talking about it.
Trump's indictments, especially those surrounding his attempt to overturn the constitution and the election, and his campaign rhetoric about revenge and dictatorship are having a negative effect on his campaign.
If we took a poll of people who have noticed a significant downturn of Trumpie rhetoric among their social media contacts, it would be virtually universal. I don't know how well my own social media contacts represent the country as a whole, on the two sites where I maintain a presence, I have just over 500 different contacts, friends or followers. I'd guess, with a quick count, that the percentage of them who once were Trump supporters, but who are no longer, is around 15%. And what's interesting is that there's been almost no chatter that I've seen about Biden's age or his job performance. Sure, a lot of my contacts are strong Democrats, but that flies in the face of polling data that says a majority of Democrats are hoping for someone else to run.
There are two ways of looking at Trump's numbers among Republicans. Yeah, he seems to have a large lead among the rest of the strange and moribund Republican candidate field, but in many of the polls, between 45% and 50% of those questioned would prefer someone other than him. That's among Republicans, and that's not a strong showing for a former President. And a recent Quinnipiac poll mirrors the Morning Consult's finding that 44% of Republicans would not vote for him if he is convicted on election or document theft charges.
The Dobbs Decision overturning Roe v. Wade is the gift that keeps on giving and giving and giving...
Any time that 60% of the electorate strongly favors something, in this political atmosphere, that says something. This has been the ticket to upsets in red states, big wins in blue states, and big turnouts everywhere. Democrats tend to win, and win big, when more voters turn out to vote. So if there's an issue that should be at the front of every campaign for every Democrat running for President, Congress, governor and state legislature, this should be it. Heck, if it works, even if you're running for dog catcher, use it.
Republicans in Congress seem to be engaged in a foot-shooting contest.
Taking the wrong side on issues that are of importance to the majority of the electorate is not a good pre-election campaign position. I have mixed feelings about starting hearings into determining whether an impeachment is warranted with regard to the President. But it will have a decided advantage for him at the ballot box. In addition to helping the President, it will help Democrats get some congressional seats back.
George Santos and Kevin McCarthy are also gifts that keep on giving. Santos is proving to be just as bad as he was accused of being and is one of the best neon flashing signs that tells voters to stay away from the GOP as has ever existed. McCarthy is still so bent out of shape about losing the speakership that he isn't careful about what he says, and he's basically telling voters that they can't trust the GOP. Thanks, Kevin.
Crime and inflation are the whines and complaints of Republicans trying to get some election traction. If they were really concerned about those things, why are they going on Christmas break without doing anything about them?
Leaving Ukraine aid hanging is dangerous. That, in and of itself, may be the nail in their coffin. Support for Ukraine is high on the list of political priorities for a clear majority of registered voters.
Former Illinois Congressman Adam Kinzinger, a conservative if there ever was one, and not necessarily oriented toward bi-partisan cooperation has said that he will vote for Biden if Trump is the nominee. Former Wyoming Congresswoman Liz Cheney, daughter of one of the most Republican Vice Presidents in modern history, has come out with a book to support her effort to make sure that Trump doesn't get re-elected. I'd say both of them are probably capable of drawing off about 20% of the GOP electorate within their own sphere of influence, Cheney probably more of a share than Kinzinger. It must be enough to cause Trump plenty of consternation and draw his ire, because he obsesses about both of them. They're on his revenge list, which means something.
Then there's Trump, on the campaign trail, making speeches...
He's doing a wonderful job of convincing voters to support Joe Biden. Even when conservative commentators, like Sean Hannity, whitewash everything and open up the door for him to publicly deny the worst charges against him, he refuses. Of course, he's going to be a dictator, we saw that the last time and now he has the thugs and cronies he needs to carry this out. If there ever were a case for a man not being qualified to be anything, much less President, Trump has made it for himself. When he takes vocabulary out of Hitler's former speeches, using terms like "vermin" to describe people he doesn't like, meaning those who don't bow at his feet and kiss his rear, and claims that immigration is poisoning the blood of the country, he's telling patriotic, real Americans who live in the real world, and understand this country's values, "Please don't vote for me!"
I Don't Need a Poll...
The Biden campaign is well funded, by far more contributors than Trump's has. And frankly, I'm not bothered by the fact that there might be other Democrats who seek the nomination. They'll do us the favor of keeping the nomination in the media instead of being ignored by whatever bad behavior Trump comes up with to get mentioned. And when the time comes, I expect they will concede, graciously, and give their support to whomever the party nominates.
I hope there is a major effort to get underneath the issues that the Green Party promotes, and a lot of effort put into neutralizing Jill Stein as a candidate. Get on board, Jill, and you and your party will have a much better chance of getting most of what you want than you will if Trump wins. If she's being bankrolled by Russian interests, namely Putin, then that will come out. Cornell West, well, Cornell doesn't seem to be getting off the ground. I'll say it here, a vote for a third party candidate, by a potential Democratic voter, who supports interests to the left of center, which includes the Green Party, is a vote for Trump.
Stein helped Trump get elected the first time. She has no chance of winning, so she might as well tell the truth and tell us which candidate she prefers, so we know, and so her voters can support that candidate. Unless she doesn't value truth or justice, and is in this entirely for her own ego, she needs to be up front and honest.
I am hoping that our experience in the 2022 mid-term elections has finally taught the younger voters in the Democratic party that staying at home instead of voting has long ranging consequences, mainly neutralizing the majority and undermining the will of the people. And that includes casting votes all the way to the end of the ballot, including voting for judicial nominees at the end.
The Constitution provides for succession to the Presidency, so the age of the candidate isn't an issue. And if you think the physical stamina and mental functioning is an issue with the current President, you'd be wrong. But if you watch Trump's speeches and rallies, you'll notice there's something wrong from the slurred speech, wandering thoughts and his having to be helped up and down steps. When was the last time you saw a photo of Trump jogging? Biden does, every day.
The choice is clear. Voting for President Biden is voting for America, the Constitution, the Democracy and the continuation of the freedom of all people. Voting for Trump is voting for dictatorship, the dissolution of the Constitution and the disastrous end of the United States of America. He was the most incompetent, anti-Patriotic President we've ever had, his first, and what will be his only term, was an inept, abject failure.
In November of 2024, we are going to see a clear repudiation of Trumpism, and an affirmation of freedom in a Biden win by a comfortable margin.
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