Trump wins the Iowa caucuses, in which just under 5% of Iowa voters participated. Well, caucuses always lower voter turnout, that's the intention. Reading headlines leaves the impression that this was a smashing victory that secures the GOP nomination and the White House for Trump. There are a few mentions of the fact that the Iowa Caucuses are not a bellwether on politicians and that its rare for the winner of Iowa to go on and get the GOP nomination. Other than that, some of the details I picked out, with a little help from the panel at MSNBC, seem to indicate that this wasn't exactly what it has been billed.
Trump got 50.9% of all votes cast. In the math courses I had in school, that's just a sliver over half. In a state with a conservative GOP dominated by Evangelical Christians, for a man who has dominated news cycles since he first started running for the White House in 2016, that's not a great showing. The fact that half of the Republicans in Iowa voted for someone else, in a very weak field, isn't the kind of dominance I'd expect to see from someone who the media has covered 24 hours a day, seven days a week. I'd think that 70% of the Republican vote would be a disappointment, at this point, especially considering his opponents.
Then there were the exit polls, which, according to MSNBC's panel, showed that one third of Iowa Republicans consider a conviction on current charges a disqualification. One third also don't believe the 2020 election was stolen. Now I get the panel's fascination with the fact that two thirds of Iowa Republicans do think the election was stolen, and more than likely the same two thirds think the convictions would just be political and not worth considering as a voter, but that's a remarkable figure. We're talking Iowa Republicans here, one of the most conservative state GOP groups. Trump cannot lose the votes of a third of his own party, matched with the percentages of independent voters and Democrats, who have a large presence in the state, who also hold the same beliefs. Losing that many of his own party's votes in Iowa means he can't win the state. And if that holds true across the country, it's not a good sign for his re-election bid. It's a very bad sign.
A Growing Opposition is Showing Up
The media is fascinated by the fact that people listen to, and believe, Trump. That's not surprising, really. Media polarization and isolation keep a lot of people in the dark, and while we like to think we are immune to ideology that is oustide the norm for us, such as Communism and Fascism, we've seen from evidence in our history that we are not. But along with the constant news items mentioning Trump every day, there are some developments that can't be ignored. The isolation and relative loyalty of his base is not enough to sustain a second run for the White House. The Republican party isn't offering a lot of opposition to that, to its shame, but ultimately, there are many indicators pointing to the fact that the voters will not put Trump back in the White House.
When the time comes, and the voters have a choice between him, and the sitting President, who they might not like for various reasons, a majority will choose the latter, simply because a majority, 55-58% of voters, know what is at stake and understand politics well enough to know that Biden needs a second term so that we can save our democracy. There will be enough Evangelicals who see the truth, and enough conservatives who are honest, to cast a vote to keep Trump from getting back into government.
And that's what we saw happen in Iowa last night.
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