Newsweek Says Big Suozzi Win "Increases" Biden's Re-Election Problems
What Democrats "Can Learn" From Suozzi Special Election Results
One of the best barometers measuring both the impact and significance of the special election in New York Congressional District 3 to replace expelled Congressman George Santos is Trump's reactions on his social media site. All of the spin, downplaying, indifference and obfuscation in the conservatively biased media is nullified by everything from Trump's attacks on the Republican candidate, whom he claims he didn't endorse, but which, in fact, he most definitely did, to his over the top, angry, and partly incoherent rants in response.
They wanted this win, they desperately needed it, they recognize the political significance of losing it and it is one more in a growing string of Democratic party election victories that is pointing to the re-election of President Biden, regaining a majority in the House and holding on to, and possibly increasing, their margin in the Senate. On the Democratic party side, the winning combination includes the same post-Dobbs reaction that has led to significant shifts in support for Democratic candidates over Republicans in a whole string of elections going back to the 2022 mid-term, a clear drop-off of support for election denying conspiracy theorists in the core of the MAGA cult, and, perhaps, the newest bad news for the GOP could be backlash from the political game they've played over border security.
It might be just a bit too soon to see any real effect from that gigantic political mistake, but long term, that's going to cut deep into any chances they have of winning an election. Dobbs and election denying have been big losers for the GOP, as their favorability evaporates.
The Biggest Take-Aways From Tuesday's Special Elections
We're just two years away from the GOP candidate for Governor of New York, Lee Zeldin, winning this district by 10 points, at the same time Santos won it by eight. On Tuesday, Suozzi, who had been elected to Congress from this district before, won it by 8, a 16 point shift from 2022. That's with votes still being counted and decimals in percentages rounded off, but regardless, it's a complete turnaround.
There's no doubt that the Dobbs decision by the Supreme Court continues to have far-reaching effects in propelling Democrats to victory. It's not fading as a campaign issue, it's front and center, and was visible in both New York, and in Pennsylvania, where Democrats won a state house seat in a purple suburban Philadelphia district to gain a two seat majority in the state house. It shows up as being one of several decisive factors in elections, especially at the state level. That, along with much stronger resistance to candidates who spout conspiracy theories and are hard core MAGA election deniers than originally predicted, have been the one-two punch for Democratic candidates, who are currently on an almost unprecedented roll of victories in elections.
Mazi Pilip, the Republican candidate in NY3, presented almost the same ethical nightmare that George Santos brought into the election. It seems that Trump's MAGA influence in the Republican party is attracting candidates that fit Hillary Clinton's definition of "deplorable," when she was roundly criticized for using that term. The ideal GOP candidate for office now seems to be someone who has a record of cheating the government out of taxes, cheating in business, borrowing with no intention of paying off the debt, and believing some of the most unprovable and ridiculous conspiracy theories to use as political fodder for the ignorant and stupid.
But it appears that, while the Trump attack on Senator Lankford's bi-partisan immigration bill is still a relatively new development, it may have been one of the larger factors in widening the race out and putting it soundly and solidly in Suozzi's camp. That move, which I believe is going to go down in history as one of the most fatally flawed political acts of all American history, is going to cost Republicans all down the line, including Trump, a significant number of votes in the coming election. It may be worth as much as 5% to Democrats. Along with Dobbs, it will be one of the political factors that leads to a big Biden win over Trump. Big.
Looking Toward 2024
This, along with the state legislative seat the Democrats claimed in a special election in Berks County, Pennsylvania on Tuesday night, is another part of the arrow pointing toward the Democratic party taking control of Congress in November. It's coming. Everything in this particular race, similar to other special elections in this winning streak for Democrats, including the re-capture of the state house in Virginia last fall, is a strong indication that the GOP does not have anything it can run on in order to win. Being Trump and MAGA is obviously not enough, and in fact, it is obviously a losing proposition when it comes to national elections, and even to a majority of elections in the states.
So ignore the gloom and doom news media. They're desperately trying to make money off this while it lasts, which won't be long.
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