Where Nikki Haley Went Wrong

I'd love to sit around the table while ballot counting is happening, providing commentary as results come in, like the commentators on the cable networks do.  I'd have more fun at MSNBC than anywhere else, I think, because they seem to recognize the fact that observations and results don't always go along with old political standards.  They bring up the past, use some trends that used to be reliable in making predictions, but they're a lot more open in their discussion, and more likely to note when things have changed and the old ways of predicting outcomes aren't accurate any more.  

And there's always someone at the MSNBC table who comes out with a blatantly honest evaluation of a campaign, and nails the analysis.  Count on Rachel Maddow, Chris Hayes, Lawrence O'Donnell, and Nicole Wallace to tell it like it is, and Joy Reid to move the conversation to the left and take into consideration things that most reporters and commentators would ignore, or not even catch.  Last night was great.  

An Honest Evaluation of Nikki Haley's Campaign 

I'll acknowledge that some of my information, and my perspective, has been influenced by the MSNBC election night coverage crew.  That's fair.  But I think I have a pretty informed, and well observed viewpoint of my own.  I am a trained social studies instructor, have taught students from middle school to junior college, more of this kind of experience than Kari Lake, or Donald Trump, had before they got into politics. But I'm not just parroting MSNBC here.  I think they held back more than they should have, but I also get why.  So let's chat for a bit, huh? 

Of all of the potential GOP nominees, Haley had the best shot at winning the nomination, next to Trump, whose former Presidency is his name and face recognition.  Out of the traditional kind of Republican base that Mitt Romney and George W. Bush built their base, and with which they won, Haley was the best candidate to fit in with the ideology and bring some of her own perspective into the mix without losing voters.  The problem is that base is now fragmented, scattered and no longer unified.  Some of it has given into the MAGA philosophy out of party loyalty.  The rest of it might have had a candidate around which to rally if Haley had given them something at the outset of the campaign, instead of joining in the chorus of sycophants who doomed their chances by trying to be Trump clones.  

But she didn't make the turn into the sort-of anti-MAGA, never Trumper candidate until too late in the campaign.  And that made her look less savvy and much less experienced than she needed in order to attract the kind of voter to the GOP that she needed to have a chance. There are moderates who are somewhat reluctant to support Biden this time around because of his age, voters at which she might have had a shot at getting, had she started by pointing out how far away from traditional Republican and Christian values the MAGA cult really has gone. But she joined the sycophants.  Her line that he was a good President then, just not so good for now was weak and demonstrated a fear of his political power within the GOP.  And ultimately, that was what sunk her boat.  

She was also, frankly, just too Republican to attract the kind of voter who would have stuck through the campaign and voted for her instead of Biden.  The Dobbs decision has been, and will be, a huge turnout machine and vote getter for all Democrats in 2024, especially the President.  She either can't or by conviction won't go there, and that's what would have taken her out of the competition against Biden. 

Her economics was more of the traditional Republican favor for the white, corporate elite.  She offered nothing that made her stand out, and a lot that spoke very loudly of potential recession, higher taxes for the working class, cuts in social security and medicare, and a general indifference for the kind of people who once put her in the South Carolina governor's mansion.  

Haley needed to forge a coalition of moderate Republicans, maybe the 20-25% of the party whose votes she did pick up, with the broader spectrum of independent voters, who make up 40% of the electorate and for whom the President's age might actually be one of several problems they have with him.  However reliable polling data might be these days, Haley had a shot at independent voters, had she only been more assertive in her anti-Trumpism.  

Anti-Trumpers in the GOP Come to the Surface

Haley did seem to uncover a rather unexpectedly large number of anti-Trumpers in the GOP who are, by their own admission, not going to support him in November.  There may be more of those out there than we realize, or than showed up to vote for her in the primaries.  Turnout of primary voters hasn't met expectations, it's been under polling data estimates and a lot of the primary voters are willing to tell exit pollsters that they're not going to vote for Trump in the general election, along with an additional group who say that a conviction will change their minds.  

By the time Super Tuesday rolled around, and the rest of the GOP field had dropped out, it was more difficult to tell whether those not showing up were just staying away because they figured the primaries were already foregone conclusions, or whether they're not going to support Trump now that their preferred candidate is no longer running.  Either way, if 2024 turns out to be anywhere near as close as 2020 was, the big question is whether primary voters who aren't showing up for him now, and those who showed up for Nikki Haley, will be party loyalists or independent thinkers.  

And perhaps one of the best things Nikki Haley has done to take votes away from Trump is that she has helped establish a Republican anti-Trump narrative that will carry some weight into the campaign.  She pointed out, from a conservative Republican perspective, that Trump is a liar, is incompetent, is showing signs of dementia and isn't the best choice for America as its president.  And if that only resonates with 10% of Republican voters, then that's enough.  But Trump has clearly lost the majority of the independent vote as well, something we saw in the crossover primaries.  

So in the long run, it was her failure to put a lot of distance between her and Trump early on that brought about her campaign's failure.  She didn't look like a leader, she looked too much like just another Trumpie sycophant, and that, in the long run, did her in.  

This is What Democrats and the Biden Campaign Have Been Waiting For

I don't think there's ever been much doubt on the Democratic side of this campaign, that Trump would be the nominee.  And while it is concerning that he is able to gather the kind of support from as many people as he does, there's a confidence there that he has hit a ceiling of support and is never going to get enough electoral votes to reclaim the White House.  He hasn't done anything to expand his base of support, in fact, he's done things which lead people away from it.  The same baggage that Haley picked up when she started her campaign is dragging Trump down.  

The President, on the other hand, can campaign on a roaring economy, on the reaction to the Dobbs decision, and to the negativity on the Supreme Court, record economic growth, record low sustained unemployment, higher wages, America regaining the respect as the leader of the democratic world it lost when Trump was President, and on every gaffe and mistake Trump hands him.  The border deal botch was gigantic.  And by Trump being the apparent GOP nominee, Biden's age has evaporated as an issue.  Poof.  Gone.  

Biden's Presidency has a response to every Trump false accusation.  America is more respected around the world now than ever.  When we hear "drill, baby drill," we know that we are producing more oil than we ever have.  Inflation is a sign of wage growth, which is approaching record levels now.  Three million more Americans have jobs now than prior to the pandemic, and unemployment has been sustained under 4% for the first time in more than 60 years.  "The election was stolen" has not only run out of steam, but its driving people away from Trump.  And to people for whom personal character is an issue, it's no contest.  

My biggest fear isn't that Biden will have difficulty winning, but that Trump and the MAGA crowd has already laid the groundwork for cheating and trying to steal the election.  We know they have.  What we're doing about it, I don't know, but I do know they're going to pull all of the tricks out of the bag, including using the people they have in state offices to suppress votes, skew vote counts and cheat to high heaven.  

I will be volunteering, canvassing for votes, writing blogs to support the President's candidacy and doing all that I can to help.  We've got this.  The blue, democracy saving wave is on the way.