Over the past half of 2024, I've seen a lot of political news that I think can hit the trash can, or as we do it these days, the delete button. There are a lot of catch phrases and buzz words being used, accompanied by adjectives indicating a lack of certainty of the author that makes me wonder why they wrote what they did in the first place. For example, Newt Gingrich, who I wouldn't trust even if angels wings appeared on his shoulders, thinks he's seeing some "indications" in some polling data which "might" be interpreted as a coming Trump landslide.
Of course he is. He saw the same thing for Bob Dole, running against Bill Clinton in 1996. And we know how that worked out. But what I don't understand is, why bother reporting that? Gingrich has been bonkers for a long time, and while it might be comforting to some far right wingers or extremists, he doesn't have the credibility that makes a statement like that worth reporting.
There are some sources who seem to want to insist that they are seeing a "trending" movement of younger, black men toward support for Trump. Polls "seem" to be indicating this movement. Trump, of course, has announced that he knows it's happening as a result of his recent indictment and now convictions, because this has given him some kind of solidarity with black men. So, insinuating in a manner that couldn't be more disrespectful or insulting toward black men, he claims that their affinity for him is out of sympathy for the fact that they share the experience of being unjustly accused. So, unjustly accused black men are lining up to vote for him.
Except, they're not.
Black Men Are a More Reliable Source on Black Men Than "Polls"
Richard Chew is a morning talk show host on Chicago's progressive radio station, WCPT. He also happens to be a black man, though his comments and his show doesn't focus exclusively on black political issues. His focus, ever since he replaced the nebulous, narrowly focused Santita Jackson, has been convincing his listeners that voting for President Biden is the only way to preserve and protect American democracy as we know it.
And it doesn't seem that he senses, or believes, the reports that black men are increasingly planning to support Trump. In fact, his conclusions seem to be more directed the other way, that what little support Trump may have had among black people last time around is evaporating, that they can see where things are headed and are going to turn out in larger numbers to vote for Biden than they may have done last time around. And while it would be hard to determine the full scope of his listeners, based on calls he gets, there's no indication from them of any support at all for Trump. None.
Richard is, of course a local guy. He, along with our mayor, Brandon Johnson, who is also black, though I shouldn't have to point this out, don't seem to think the polls reflecting this specific trend is accurate.
The Rev. Al Sharpton, on the other hand, has a national audience. He's not really convinced of this, either. On his MSNBC program, Politics Nation, he's said so, and pointed to evidence to the contrary.
The "war on woke" being waged by Ron Desantis, governor of Florida, is producing its own kind of opposition and has probably done more for Democrats in that state than anything from the last 20 years. It's actually put Florida back in play as a possible gain for Biden's electoral vote total, and because it has centered specifically on put downs and discrimination directly against the black community, it is creating its own opposition core.
What Would Cause Such a Shift?
Politically, black men have nothing to gain by switching support to Trump. So why would they?
First of all, I think there's a legitimate question of the accuracy in poll surveys identifying responses coming from "black males." That's difficult to verify, and not an easy demographic for which to get an accurate reading. And in the process of sorting out responses and determining how likely or unlikely they are to vote, I'd really like to see how those factors play out in putting the data together. In the few groupings where black men are included in the data, the shift has been more toward Biden, not away from him.
And what's missing is the really visible evidence, where people identified as leaders and spokespersons among this constituency are actually speaking the rhetoric. That's not happening. In fact, what is happening is just about the exact opposite of what we would need to see to confirm it.
Big headlines were made in the electronic media, attracting attention to the fact that Trump made a speech at a rally at a "black church" in the heart of Detroit. Yes, he did make a speech at a church identified as a building owned by a black congregation. But with the exception of a few well-placed people for photographic purposes, the audience in the church was--white. With Trump's habit of not paying bills, I hope the church collected the money he offered them before he used their building. But that's not proof that black men are turning to Trump. Not at all.
It wouldn't be consistent with Trumpist politics to commit to any significant enough benefit to black men that would cause a shift big enough to make a difference. He doesn't like black men, and they're not part of his white supremacist, Christian nationalist perspective of a future America. He's accused them, openly and just about at every rally, of being the cause of a crime problem, along with Latino immigrants. He's given them no reason to vote for him, while Biden's policies has decreased their unemployment to record levels, increased their wages and opened the door for unprecedented economic opportunity.
My Own Back Yard
I live in Chicago. And while Chicago is a heavily Democratic city, and the collar counties have significant Democratic majorities, if there were a shift in black men over to Trump, we'd be seeing it here as well. It's not happening, not visibly, or perceptively, anywhere. I don't know enough black men to conduct an accurate poll, but I do know quite a few, from business, from church, from being neighbors. I don't know any of them who are not all-out Biden supporters, the kind of people who put bumper stickers on their car and yard signs in front of their house.
And while this doesn't appear to be a yard-sign, bumper sticker kind of election, I'm not seeing any of Trump's flags, signs or bumper stickers. Well, I take that back. I've seen one.
Fickle voters are out there, but to claim the kind of inroads into traditional constituencies without evidence causes a lack of credibility. And I'm not seeing anything that convinces me that black voters, male or female, will turn to Trump at all. What I hope they will do is turn out for Joe like they did for Barack in 2008 and 2012. That's what we need to work together to save this democracy and rid it of the MAGA plague.
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