"It's a razor thin margin," they say. "It's as close as any we have ever had." "We're basing our predictions on the odds combined with the numbers," is the answer to the question as to where this election will go. And right now, as the pollsters and the pundits see it, it's a toss up.
That might be the best way to characterize it, in terms of keeping voter enthusiasm for Harris on a high note. Post-debate, with polls coming out now showing her leading nationally by as much as 6 points, in the most recent ABC News poll, her volunteers, their enthusiasm and the general upbeat tone she has brought to this campaign seems to be working in her favor.
Harris Will Win on the Issues
The primary job of the Vice President is to be prepared and ready to assume office at a moment's notice. We rarely get to see how well prepared a Vice President is, because it is rare for them to have to step into the Presidency. The last time that happened, it was Gerald Ford, who had not been Vice President for very long. Opinions are varied on how well prepared he was.
But it's been clear from the start that Kamala Harris was ready to go. She didn't have to step into the Presidency, but she had to organize and run a political campaign on very short notice. She was obviously well prepared to do that. And I think that's one of the biggest advantages she brings into this campaign. She is familiar with the role of President of the United States, understands that responsibility and demonstrates the ability to provide the kind of leadership necessary to be the President.
Vice President Harris has been part of an administration that has had to deal with a viral pandemic, assume responsibility for the nation's recovery, maintain economic growth while dealing with global inflation, and take the blame for something they didn't cause, put the NATO alliance back together in order to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian aggression, continue to protect Taiwan's independence and get us out of an expensive, pointless war in Afghanistan. They were successful in dealing with all of this.
There are those who want to place blame on the administration, and include Harris, for the problem we've had with inflation. I could go into a discussion of how blaming the President is economic ignorance, but that doesn't really make the point. The point is that this administration has been on the ball as far as this particular economic issue is concerned, and in this period of inflation that has affected the entire global economic market, which is evidence that no policy or practice of the Biden administration caused it, the administration has actually put policies in place which have made the effects of global inflation affect consumers in the United States far less than it has almost anywhere else in the world.
According to the New York Times "the price of gas has fallen below $3 in most of the south and Midwest, and is nearing a three year low nationally. Spiking grocery prices have slowed to a crawl. Mortgage rates are down nearly a percentage point from their peak. The Census Bureau reported last week that the typical household income rose faster than prices last year for the first time since the pandemic."
Let's see. Gas prices falling. Grocery price hikes halted. Mortgage rates declining. Wages and personal income growing faster than prices are increasing. Stock market achieving record highs. Unemployment staying at record lows not seen in 60 years. Sustained economic growth at 3% with no recession in sight.
That's all good news economically, for an administration in which Harris serves as Vice-President. Add to that her tax policy, which doesn't add a penny to the taxes of the working and middle class, and I think we have one of the reasons why Harris will win. We always have those who simply complain, cite the cliches and never pay attention to the facts, but Harris and Walz have both underlined an economic policy and plan that helps the vast majority of Americans. And they are getting the word out. I love explaining, to those on the extreme right, how this President sold off oil from the strategic reserves at premium prices, and then refilled at a significant savings which helped keep our gas prices lower than almost all of the rest of the world.
And Trump and Vance have a concept of a plan. Basically, giving billionaires a tax break and placing high tariffs on imported goods, which will increase prices dramatically.
The fact that women's reproductive rights referendums are on several state ballots is a distinct advantage for the Harris-Walz campaign. Yes, it's popular, but not for the reasons that the far right argues against it. It's popular because it takes decisions about all aspects of a woman's health care out of the hands of the government. Since the Roe v. Wade decision was overturned, and there are now states banning abortion after six weeks of pregnancy, there are multiple examples of women whose lives have been put in danger because doctors will not perform procedures that would save their life, but violate the law. And yes, that's a sanctity of human life issue, too.
If these religious right wing conservatives were really interested in the sanctity of human life, they'd be passing laws to keep kids from being slaughtered in schools. Why would a religious conservative be in favor of anyone owning a weapon built for the sole purpose of destroying a life? That's just as contrary to their religious teaching as an abortion performed for birth control purposes.
Their plan, "it goes back to the states," is unworkable. And it contradicts the position of Evangelicals in the GOP, who want a nationwide ban on abortion. If their whole point is banning all abortion to protect the sanctity of life, then Trump's "it goes back to the states" position is also contradictory to that.
Harris Will Win on the Realities
Trump was President for four years, and other than pandering to his Evangelical base, and nominating some of the most unqualified judges to the federal bench and to the Supreme Court, achieved absolutely nothing as President. He pandered to dictators who used flattery to get everything they wanted out of him. He practically disbanded the NATO alliance, opening up Europe to Russian aggression, resulting in the attack on Ukraine, planned while Trump was still in office. His billionaire tax cut created the largest budget deficit and added more to the debt than virtually all other presidents before him combined, which led to the dollar's instability. He handed Afghanistan right back to the Taliban, undermining the democratically elected government. His mishandling of the COVID pandemic is a classic example of the total collapse of ineffective, failed leadership.
And on top of all of that, he showed his disloyalty to the Constitution, broke the oath he took to defend and protect it, and betrayed the American people by inciting an insurrection aimed at disrupting the peaceful transfer of power. It's really beyond comprehension, to me, that there is not any constitutional provision to disqualify someone who is so unpatriotic and hostile to America and its constitution from ever running for office. So it is up to us, the American people, those of us who love this country and are willing to fight for it, to enforce such a provision.
Trump's age and his inability to gather and communicate coherent thoughts, which appears to be the result of dementia, are also realities we need to deal with. Only two years younger than Joe Biden, and in worse shape as far as his health and stamina are concerned, I suspect that his being kept from making anywhere close to the number of public appearances he once did while campaigning is an effort to keep the public from seeing, up close, what bad shape he is in. I thought he might stroke out on the stage in Las Vegas this past week, sweating profusely, stumbling over words, no longer allowing the speaker stand to be placed on a platform where he must climb steps to get to. We can certainly hear it in his voice, and in his confusing, jumbled, stumbling conversation.
I cannot recall, in my lifetime, any candidate of one major party getting so much support from people who once held positions of influence and importance in the other, including Senators and members of the House and former cabinet. They represent a percentage of Republican voters who seem committed to Trump's defeat. Having been among those who have supported him in his last two runs for the Presidency, the percentage of Republicans he is losing along the margins will be decisive in his defeat.
Oh, the Polls, the Polls, the Polls
While it seems the polling data is catching up with the reality of where things are headed, I honestly don't think the pollsters have a model for predicting, and determining how to analyze the data they're receiving, to adequately and accurately tell us what the voters who are likely to cast ballots actually will do. The contrast between the fresh vision and enthusiasm, and the positive, upbeat message Harris has brought to the campaign, and Trump's anger, thirst for revenge and negativity is astounding. There are hints, in polls and in other data, including from some deep red states, showing him losing significant support.
And whether or not some of them are fairly accurate, she's now hovering around the 50% threshold, which shows substantial gains over the time she's been running, and the trends keep moving forward, as her lead grows every day.
I believe Biden would have won this election. There's a solid 55% of the electorate that wasn't ever going to vote for Trump, and isn't now, and getting most of them to the polls won't be easy, but it has to be done. Trump just doesn't have the ability, as an indicted insurrectionist and a convicted felon, to command the kind of votes he needs to win.
Harris is sharp, well educated, politically experienced and she's genuine, sincere, and doesn't need to be fact checked because she tells the truth. Electing her and giving her a Congress in which she can get things done will be a far better way to improve this country than electing a demented, immoral, dishonest, duplicitous, lying scam artist and convict.
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