The size and scope of the turnouts in elections on November 4th, along with the results, certainly did point to one factor that can be found in common across the board, in every Republican defeat. The government shutdown is being blamed straight up on the GOP. You can see it in exit polls, in turnout, in the results, especially in places where Trump got involved and made himself and his endorsement known. Turnout was up, higher than predicted, margins were wider than predicted and even the President, who does his best to shut out the truth and run from reality, acknowledged it.
I've heard the excuses. What did we expect from deep blue states? Well, not margins or turnout like this, not with our best guesses.
Yes, New York is a deep blue spot in a deep blue state. But the Republican wasn't even a factor in the race, and the independent had Trump's endorsement, money and a barrage of social media tweets, and he still underperformed. New Jersey is reliably blue, but not deep blue and these margins for a Democrat not only exceeded polling expectations, but show an increase in Democratic party support. Virginia is by no means a deep blue state, and the advance that Democrats made there yesterday speaks directly to exactly how unpopular the shutdown is, given the percentage of government employees in the total vote.
Pennsylvania may be the biggest surprise of all. From what I've read, there was real fear that the Republicans would gain the majority on the state Supreme Court and that not only didn't happen, but the Democrats won in a big way. In a swing state, that's probably the best measure of just how unpopular the President is, and how much people blame him and his party for the shutdown.
Why Change When Things Are Going So Well?
Stick with your principles in time of adversity. Don't be a flip flopper. That's good political advice, isn't it? From my perspective, I think it is. I would strongly advise Republicans to keep the government shut down, at least for a little while longer. It's not working for you, clearly, but it sure is working for us. Be lazy, stay home, enjoy your vacation time that we, the taxpayers, are providing for you. Leave the appearance of doing nothing. That will be so helpful, at least, it will to any Democrats running to take over your seats.
The President's meltdown today confirms it. Somehow word leaked out in spite of the fact that he booted reporters before he started spreading across the floor like the wicked witch of the west. Since, in his mind, nothing can ever be his fault, he blamed it all on the shutdown. But what does he know anyway, the loser? Listening to the guy who endorsed all of yesterday's losers, and helped by paying for the campaigns of some of them, can't be productive.
Well, here's the thing. Trump always chickens out. Now you have to decide whether you can trust his judgment. You can't, but that's the beauty of this think. Republicans are in one bitch of a bind and it is going to be a rough stretch down the road. Even if they get the government running again, more than likely on Democratic party terms, they have to deal with Trump's growing unpopularity. It's a lose-lose situation and I'm so happy about it. It might be simpler just to keep the government shut down for damage control purposes. That might be a better thing to do, for those political ends anyway, than trying to guess where the bottom is on Trump's unpopularity.
I think the 2026 midterms are going to tell us exactly where that is.
Sometimes, You Just Can't Fix Stupid
The Republicans are the party in power. So of course, voters are going to blame them for the shutdown. Ultimately, it is their fault, not that of the Democrats, who are the minority party right now. We know they could have resolved these continuous requirements for budget resolutions to temporarily keep things running a long time ago, and they didn't. They promised to fix health care going all the way back to the first time they tried to overturn Obamacare. They had a great plan, which we were supposed to hear about in a couple of weeks, but never did.
We aren't that stupid. Apparently Republican leadership, including the President, thinks their own supporters and party members are stupid, and they certainly show nothing but contempt for the intelligence of their own. \
So go ahead. Keep the government shut down, in spite of the lessons from yesterday which apparently were unsuccessful in teaching anything.
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