What's Trending, Less Than a Month Before the Midterms?

 538 Polls October 11 Showing Biden Job Approval Within One Point of Disapproval

For reference, in the link above, there are three polls from YouGov/The Economist which are worthy of note.  All three were taken from October 8-11, so they are the most recent.  They have a B rating, which isn't great, but which is equal to the other two polls on the same subject from Rasmussen and Ipsos, which put factors in place that make the data skew to the right.  The poll of 1,030 "likely voters" has President Biden's job approval rating at 48%, a 5 point jump from the last similar poll, and disapproval at 51%.  The poll of 1,330 registered voters has approval at 48% and disapproval at 49%, and the poll of 1,500 adults has approval at 45% and disapproval at 46%.  

That's a 10% to as much as 12% swing from similar polls in mid-September, what some pollsters call "trending."  I'm not a pollster, but I'd call it that.  I'm not sure of the factoring they do on job approval ratings, but that much of a shift should generate some interest in finding out what it is that has caused this.  The President made a major campaign speech in Philadelphia, which blasted the GOP for its extremism and which silenced a lot of the whispering and speculation about his mental sharpness.  He's actually been out a lot more, because candidates seem to want him to appear with them on stage.  It's pretty obvious, at least to those who aren't politically biased toward the right, that he's actively engaged in trying all of the steps economists say are necessary to curb inflation.  Combined with the shock of the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and the revelations that Trump took top secret documents to Mar-a-Lago and there are some reasons to support the trend.  

And, reasons to be optimistic about the mid-terms. 

Further down the page is the results of the generic ballot poll.  That's been trending, too.  Last spring, Republicans had a seven point advantage and there was lots of talk about the party in power always losing the mid-terms, blah, blah, blah.  But the Democrats now lead in all of those generic polls, by as much as 4 points, and by an average of just over 3, which is a 10 point swing.  

Herschel Walker:  A Poster Child for GOP Extremism

Herschel Walker isn't just turning off Georgia voters.  He's becoming a poster child for GOP extremism.  Not only is this guy pathetic when it comes to the ability to put words together and form a coherent, intelligible sentence, but his see-through lies and denials just make it so much worse.  It's not going to move political die hards, of course, but in a state like Georgia, where the Republicans need independents to win elections, this is not playing well.  But it also underlines the fact that there are other extremists running on the GOP ticket elsewhere, and it's not helping those candidates, either. 

Ultimately, I think a combination of Walker, Trump and his boxes of documents, and the last public January 6th hearing will be the demise of any chance the Republicans might once have had to take control of at least one house of Congress.  All of this has a long term effect when it comes to trending, because it takes people a little while to absorb the information, evaluate it and respond to it.  Election day looks like it will come at the exact time when the negative vibes are peaking and people will be in a mood to vote the extremists out. 

Trump Raising Money for Democratic Senate Candidates

Oh, I knew that headline would get your attention.  Trump has been holding rallies, of course, it's his full time job to put his pinched lips behind a microphone and blow hard for hours.  After years of this, people have learned to not show up.  Attendance hasn't been filling even small venues.  And after he visited Nevada, the Democratic Senator, who is running for re-election, Catherine Cortez-Masto, raised over a million campaign dollars in just two days.  She appears to be locked in a dead heat, according to the polls, but Nevada has seen what many states have seen since the Dobbs decision by the Supreme Court, and that is long lines of young women registering to vote.  That's never good news for the GOP, especially in a state like Nevada. 

Trump's rally in Arizona, which was also not well attended, had the same effect there for both Katie Hobbs, Democratic candidate for Governor, and Mark Kelly, running for re-election to his senate seat.  A mountain of small contributions flooded into the Arizona Democratic Party, which has also been boosted by a wave of new voter registrations.  And while it is another issue that bears discussing, the fact that so many unregistered voters are lining up to promise to cast a ballot is another one of those "trends" we've been talking about.  

Nothing Surprises Me Any More

Midterm elections are won by turnout.  That's true of most elections, but it is particularly true of the midterms.  That's how Doug Jones won a partial term in the senate from Alabama.  It's also how Republicans won control of Congress and state legislatures in 2010 and gerrymandered their way into close competition.  It will take a while to undo all of that, but Democrats have the best chance at winning a midterm election as the party in power as they ever have had.  

I'm pretty optimistic, looking at the trends.  The best news that we could have received was the surprise initiative in Kansas, and the fact that Mary Peltola, in Alaska, outpolled two once-popular Republicans to gain a house seat, and will likely be re-elected again in November.  The trends have been moving in the direction of the Democratic candidates virtually across the board.  The economy, which was once the big issue for over half of all voters is still big, but its dropped to below 45% while abortion rights, which were single digit, have morphed to almost 30%.  That's quite a trend and it indicates that turnout among pro-choice Democrats is likely to be high, and more than that, likely to be the decisive factor in this election.  

And Biden's job approval rating, while not great, has seen quite an improvement, a trend, if you will, while Trump's unfavorability is also showing a trend in a negative direction.  We have less than a month to go, plenty of time for Walker to be revealed as even more of a hypocrite than he already is, and for Trump to open mouth and insert foot again and again.  It's reliable, folks.  It will happen.  

Make sure you register and vote.  

I Used to Love Watching the Polling Data...

Don't get me wrong, I still do.  But there's an element of unpredictability in polls, and it's been there since at least 2012, when President Obama won a solid, convincing re-election bid over Mitt Romney.  Republicans were sincerely expecting that Romney would eke out a narrow electoral college win, based on polling data from Ohio and Florida that gave him a slight edge.  But he didn't carry either state, in fact, he lost Ohio outside the margin of error of the poll, though Florida was much closer, Obama still carried the state. As it turned out, with Ohio, he didn't need it.  

Then there was 2016, when Hillary Clinton was given better than a 70% chance to win the Presidency.  But the polls were off in the blue wall states, notwithstanding a little Russian interference.  And again, in 2020, state by state, they were off again.  And while there are plenty of theories about what went wrong, I don't believe any of the pollsters has yet figured out why the composite numbers are out of balance, and the margins of error seem skewed.  

But in Spite of All of That...

Democrats have a lot of reasons to be optimistic about their chances of keeping control of Congress, and expanding their control of the Senate.  When I first started looking at the composites back in February or March, we were down by nine points in the generic ballot, and Pennsylvania was the only really bright spot in the senate races.  But looking at the 538 polling composites today, Democrats lead the generic ballot, it's close, one point, but that's a ten point improvement since the low point last winter. The numbers in the senate races, if the election were held tomorrow, would yield a gain of three for the Democrats, with Nevada being the closest thing Republicans have to a possible flip, and I wouldn't bet on that.  Beasley and Demings, in North Carolina and Florida, have moved the needle to well within the margins in their races within the past two weeks, and if they can pull it off, that's a net gain of five for the Democrats.  

Florida may prove to be interesting, with a large number of displaced voters from heavily Republican areas of the state.  And what has really fascinated the poll watchers there, among other things, is that neither of the candidates at the top of the ballot have crossed the 50% mark in the polls.  That's DeSantis and Rubio, by the way.  And that's a drop in the support that both of them had the last time they ran for election.  

Then there's this, from Michael Moore: Michael Moore Predicts Democrats Will Win Big in the Midterms

Being one of those who didn't listen to Moore when he predicted Trump would win in 2016, noting that he pointed directly at what he saw as flaws in the polling data, which is the same sort of thing he's pointing to now.  Abortion rights have gone from near zero in priority for voters to double digits, which represents a significant shift in what voters are thinking, and as a motivating factor, it's 5 to 1 odds, Democrat to Republican, as far as those in polls have expressed themselves.  There were polls on the ballot issue in Kansas, perhaps not in the same class with Quinnipiac, Marist, YouGov or Morning Consult, though the latter leans toward Democrats maintaining control of congress and making a few gains in senate seats, but no one saw that coming.  

And when it comes down to it, it does take a little time for people to see extremists for what they are.  But once they do, it's hard not to see it and harder still to cast a ballot for it.  The Democrats drawing even in a mid-term year when they control the White House and Congress is a good sign.  The extremists have another month to pull another Herschel Walker or two.  I'm looking forward to seeing who the next one will be to open their mouth and insert their foot. 

Running for Office as an Election Denier Nullifies the Election Denier Argument

Believing that the 2020 Presidential election was "stolen," especially without any evidence at all to support that claim, is about as ignorant and ridiculous a position as a politician can take.  In my own opinion, believing that should disqualify anyone from running for public office.  There are always glitches and places in the system where ballots can't be verified, or may have been cast in a manner not consistent with law or defined procedure, but the number is so low, compared to the number of ballots that are cast and counted accurately, that it is safe to say American elections are the most secure and accurate in the world.  And 2020 falls into that same category, in spite of the ignorant rhetoric that keeps going on and on from the right.  

But, making that kind of fraudulent claim goes beyond identifying those who believe it as idiots and morons.  Trump wasn't the only name on those ballots.  Every state had a list of senate candidates, congressional candidates, state legislative elections, judges, constitutional propositions, and all kinds of things to elect or which required casting a vote.  If the Presidential election was "rigged," then so was every other election on the ballot.  That means that many of those who are currently serving in Congress on the GOP side of the aisle believe their own election isn't legitimate.  Right?  I mean, if someone was elected and the election was rigged, then so would be their election.  

So, based on the logic, or should I say, lack of logic, of election deniers, isn't running for election a denial of election denial?  If a candidate is running for election, the very act of doing so expresses a confidence in the accuracy of the system.  Otherwise, what would be gained by running, if the election is already rigged for "the other guy" whoever that might be, of course, a Democrat since Republicans would never, ever rig or cheat in an election [huge tongue-in-cheek here].  

If the election is rigged, then why bother to go to all the trouble to raise money, spend all that time on the campaign trail and go to all the trouble and effort.  That would be a waste of time and money.  If a candidate believes the election is rigged against them, the expense and effort would yield no result anyway.  

And what about all of the Republican congressmen and senators who were elected in 2020, but who went ahead and allowed themselves to be sworn into office anyway?  What an absolute collapse of integrity and honesty, for politicians to claim belief that the election was rigged and then to go ahead and step into the office to which they may not have been legitimately elected.  

I'm not really making any point here, except that denying the accuracy of an election, without a shred of evidence, is stupid.  It is a demonstration of the widespread ignorance of Americans who have absolutely no idea whatsoever how an election is operated, how ballots are collected and counted, and what safeguards are in place to prevent fraud.  

It's time to overhaul some institutions.  Starting with the schools, it's time to overhaul social studies and civics curriculum.  Because if there are as many people as polls suggest who believe this ridiculous stuff, then the educational system that passed them through has failed miserably.  And it's time to move toward an independent, non-commercially supported media.  Corporate interests run most media outlets, and that leaves a public that is grossly misinformed, and continuing to have conversations about the sensational, attention-getting narratives that they keep pushing.  

The bottom line is that even the orange headed buffoon himself does not believe the election was rigged or stolen, and he's admitted as much.  But he's sure made millions of Americans look like fools.  

Behind the Slogans and the Rhetoric, There's a Big Picture

My parents grew up in West Virginia.  My Dad was a chemical worker, a union member and both he and my mother belonged to the Democratic party and would never have dreamed of voting for a Republican.  I can remember conversations he had with other relatives and friends when Arch Moore ran for governor, not understanding how a state full of working class people, many of them coal miners subjected to poor working conditions, low wages and few benefits, would elect a governor who was supported by the corporate interests that were keeping wages in the state low, especially the mining and transportation interests.  

And for most working class West Virginians, nothing changed under Arch Moore.  West Virginia continues to be the state that has the largest per-capita population decline in the nation.  And as a result of that continued loss of population, it has lost a seat in the house of representatives.  Not that much has happened with the representation they do have.  Shelley Moore-Capito, the daughter of corporate energy's best friend Arch, is now one of the state's senators.  And people are still leaving.  

There's a major opioid and prescription drug crisis going on in many of the rural areas of the state.  The decline in population has created a crisis involving access to health care as doctors fold up shop and move, and hospitals and their emergency rooms close.  Such was the case in the coal mining town of Williamson, the seat of Mingo County in a very poor, rural, mountainous area of southwestern West Virginia, along the Kentucky border.  Two years ago, as job and population loss plagued the area in a county that has lost a third of its residence in less than a generation, the Williamson Memorial Hospital, the only one in Mingo County, closed its doors.  

And the state's Republican leadership didn't lift a finger to help.  It's not likely that they even knew about it, as several hospitals in small communities have either closed or downsized in recent years.  I'd say that a closed hospital ranks a lot higher on the priority list than the fantasy of election fraud for the people who live there and must now either incur the added expense of visiting a hospital across the river in Kentucky, or driving 70 miles to Huntington for emergency care.  

The state does have a Democrat in the senate.  And at the prodding and prompting of the Biden Administration, he helped land federal funding in the amount of $2 million for necessary renovations to open the hospital back up, which it will do later this year.  That's what Democrats do, and while I'm disappointed that Senator Manchin hasn't consistently showed interest in this kind of thing to help people, I'm glad to note that he has helped get this accomplished, along with some other health access issues for West Virginians.  Williamson is in West Virginia's third congressional district, represented by Carol Miller, a Republican who has had nothing to do with any of the federal dollars now coming into these rural areas because of Biden Administration legislation.  But since the state is losing this district, and will have only two, it will be in the 2nd district, which is currently represented by Alex Mooney, who also has nothing to do with any of the help coming into the district from the Biden Administration. 

In fact, West Virginia's congressional delegation, made up of individuals who are tightly connected to corporate interests, including the energy business, has no interest in helping the working poor in their state.  None.  Yet they keep getting elected, mainly on social issues and on the political rhetoric of right wing liars.  

Fear Tactics

Job loss for rural communities in West Virginia is a regular occurrence.  Coal mines run out of coal and shut down, and now, as cheaper, cleaner alternatives are being developed, even productive facilities are being shut down for lack of markets.  Democrats have proposed some solutions which will create jobs in other fields, bringing in and growing different industries which would add jobs and improve the local economy.  The infrastructure bill and "Build Back Better" both carried immense potential to create jobs in the state.  But its politicians followed a party line and voted no.  

Voter turnout in West Virginia is not great, and when there is a decent turnout, it's because there's a pervasive fear that corporate employers will "pull out" if they don't like the outcome.  In 2016, campaign ads run by Republican PACS had voters convinced that if the state were carried by Clinton, coal companies would shut down mines in protest.  A few years further back, a water crisis caused by chemical contamination of a good portion of the water supply of the town of Parkersburg, by DuPont Chemical, scared a lot of voters into believing that DuPont would close down, leaving more than a thousand workers out of jobs.  In spite of the increased rates of cancer, birth defects and other issues suffered by residents, politicians were reluctant to get involved and voters, fearing the plant would close as a result of political pressure, were reluctant to elect those who would advocate for them. 

This is a common theme in West Virginia.  In the state's northern panhandle, during the 1980's, the steel mill in Weirton avoided closure when the local union negotiated a deal with the former ownership to allow the company to be bought by another owner who basically raised the money to pay for it by selling shares of the company to the workers.  The union saved 3,000 jobs, for about two decades, and made the company profitable and competitive at a time when mills were closing all over the country.  But, lacking political support, when the corporate ownership decided to sell out to a foreign competitor, Arcelor Mittal, the new owners shut the steel production down and laid off 2,000 workers, keeping only a raw materials operation open.  And they've since sold out to yet another company with further job loss.  West Virginia's GOP dominated legislature yawns.  

A Hand Up, Not a Hand Out, From the Biden Administration 

Remember Thomas Frank's book, from 2004, What's the Matter With Kansas?.  Well, the second edition could well be titled "What's the Matter With West Virginia?"  Trump made a lot of noise about helping coal, not because he really cared about the coal industry, or the workers, but because he needed votes to carry the state against Hillary Clinton in 2016, who, of course, was a clean energy advocate.  Coal isn't going to make a comeback, Trump knew that, and once elected, did nothing that would benefit the coal industry.  West Virginia lost jobs and population all through the Trump administration.  

Senator Bernie Sanders, who won the Democratic primary in West Virginia in 2016, went back with MSNBC's Chris Hayes for a town hall in Welch, in the far southern part of the state, deep in the mountains, to address the opioid crisis, prescription drug addiction and the health care issues plaguing the rural areas.  It was a rare opportunity for West Virginians to be heard, and they were, by Democrats.  Once Trump was gone, what the Biden administration offered to West Virginia was a hand up, and they've benefitted tremendously from the infrastructure bill.  Williamson and Mingo County are not the only place that will have an operational hospital due to Biden administration assistance.  Welch, where Sanders and Hayes held their town hall, also got assistance to keep their medical facility open, as did several other rural health operations across the state.  

Senator Manchin has been mentioned in some of the news coverage as having lent a hand to help direct this assistance, but it doesn't seem he's taken as active a role in promoting this as Senator Sanders.  The Vermont Senator's message resonates in those mountains, and a lot of voters who supported him in the 2016 primary stayed home or voted for Trump in the general election.  And that's part of the problem.  There's something wrong politically when people turn out to vote for a liberal Senator from Vermont in the primaries, then, when he's not the party nominee, stay home or vote for the Republican in the general election.  There's something in the political water there that has to be filtered out and changed.  West Virginia is a working class state, and Democrats need to figure out how to get it back.   

Not All Republicans are Happy With Herschel Walker's Hypocrisy on Abortion

I must admit, I have not been able to wrap my mind around the fact that some of the worst possible candidates that I've ever observed in my lifetime, and who rival some of the worst who've ever run for public office, are still gathering enough public support to still be considered as a viable candidate for office.  Mehmet Oz, running for the Senate from Pennsylvania, is a quack doctor who made himself rich peddling quack pills and health regimens, is at least trailing badly enough in the polls to keep Pennsylvanians from looking ridiculous.  Blake Masters, in Arizona, is actually so bad, he's having trouble finding other candidates who will appear with him in public.  

Then there's Herschel Walker.  I'm honestly stunned, and completely baffled, as to how it was that there were enough Republicans in Georgia to support his nomination and get him on the ballot as a candidate for the Senate.  He was a good football player, in his time, not outstanding or remarkable, or legendary, as the sports phrase goes, though running with an oblong ball down a hundred yard field isn't exactly the kind of experience I'm looking for in a political candidate.  But beyond that, someone who can't put enough coherent words together to make an intelligible sentence is probably not going to be a good representative of the people in the United States Senate.  And I don't really think, when it comes down to it, that the voters in Georgia will give him that job over Senator Warnock, who has already characterized himself as an outstanding Senator serving the people of his state as well as anyone has ever done. 

Abortion Revelation Exposes Right-Wing, Evangelical Hypocrisy

Walker has been the ideal Trump-endorsed candidate for this position all along.  With Trump, character doesn't matter, truth doesn't matter, issues don't matter.  Power matters, and once it is achieved, by whatever means necessary, using it for personal benefit matters.  Use it to toss a few favors in the direction of the supporters, but ultimately, using it to eliminate their necessity is the long-range goal.  

Walker has lied about his background, his identity, and his character.  He picked up right wing themes and spoke out against absentee fathers among the African American community without ever thinking he'd be called out because he's fathered children in whose lives he's never been involved.  By the same standards that the religious right applies to Democrats, he's worse than a politician who supports abortion rights, since he actually paid for one of his girlfriends to have one.  By their definition of terms, doesn't that make him a "baby killer"?  

The reaction from among the religious right wing of the GOP to this news is clear evidence that they don't care one bit about abortion.  If this had been a Democratic candidate for the senate, and this blatant hypocrisy on a political issue had been displayed--and I can point to multiple examples of such--lips would be flapping, voices would be shrieking holy horror and heads would be exploding with rage.  

I'm going to say this, because it needs to be said.  If any Evangelical Christian, or Republican for that matter, who has drawn the line on the political issue of abortion and won't vote for Democrats they call "baby killers", still supports and plans to vote for Herschel Walker after this revelation, their Christian faith is meaningless and empty.  Using Matthew's analogy in his gospel account of the life of Christ, they are salt that has lost its taste, no longer good for anything except to be thrown out and trampled under foot.  

There Will be Some Loss of Support Among Evangelical Voters for Walker as a Result of This Revelation 

A met the pastor of a small, rural, 200 year old Baptist church outside Savannah about 18 years ago while volunteering for a construction ministry project assisting low income homeowners with weatherization and repairs.  We've been "friends" on social media, and I occasionally read his tweets and his blog.  His church is small, less than 80 regulars in attendance, mostly elderly Caucasians.  He was bold enough to express his disappointment with the news of Walker's paying for his girlfriend's abortion, and to declare that he couldn't continue to support his candidacy.  

I doubt that very many of his congregants are on social media, but those who read his tweets were sympathetic to his view in their response, some of them registered voters in Georgia.  There are some Christians whose view of abortion is sincere, who are stunned and disappointed in this news, who don't accept Walker's hasty, bumbling denial and who, by conviction, won't vote for him.  Unfortunately, there will be many more for whom abortion is less a conviction and more of a temptation to political power and they, frankly, would throw Jesus under the bus if it meant they would gain from it.  They are the modern version of the Gnostics, intruders in the church, "worldly people, devoid of the Spirit, who are causing divisions," according to the Apostle Jude [see Jude v. 19}.  

Growing up in church, I've heard preachers all my life reference Jesus' analogies of sheep and goats, wheat and tares, distinguishing the "true believers" in the church from those who were just socially or culturally connected.  But the religious right has set the tone of this discussion with their "baby killer" rhetoric.  With this revelation about Herschel Walker, they are now facing a moment of truth.  Jesus said, "If you continue in my word, you are truly my disciples; and you will know the truth, and the truth will make you free. [John 8:31-32].  

This is a moment of truth, and it will reveal a lot about who in the church is represented by sheep or goats, wheat or tares.  

Turnout Wins Elections; All Hands on Deck and Other Cliches

Election day is November 8.  Mark the date on the calendar in red, circle it, put a reminder up on the fridge, or, better yet, get the ducks in order and send in your mail-in ballots. There is no excuse for not voting this time around because this could be the last chance Americans have to cast a ballot that counts in an election.  There are people running in multiple states who, if they are elected, and they get their way, will work to do away with individuals casting ballots in elections and a new ruling class will emerge which controls politics, abolishes term limits and listens to crazy, baseless, false conspiracy theories instead of the truth.  

The biggest advantage that Democrats now have on their side in this midterm election is Donald Trump.  Yes, that's what I meant to say.  Even though the orange headed buffoon hasn't announced his candidacy for President, and he's not running in this election, he is on the ballot in the form of every election denier, conspiracy theorist, extremist and rich one percenter who is.  It's pretty clear that most Americans, a clear majority that shows up in polls as a consistent 60% who do not approve of him, can't stand him and have no desire at all to see him ever live in the White House or serve as President again.  If the Department of Justice does its job, his next government residence will be federal prison.  

But the voters, which includes all but a handful of Democrats, over 65% of independent and third partiers, and a growing number of Republicans in double-digit percentages, don't want him back.  And that means that they must show up at the polls in record numbers, especially for a mid-term, and beat back all of the extremist nut jobs who have won nominations for office.  I believe there are enough of these people, even in some of the southern backwaters, to send a decisive message and give government the legislative power it needs over the next two years to enact legislation and get court rulings to block any attempt by Trump Fascists to have any influence.  

The opposition to Trump, which includes Democrats, a large majority of independents and third partiers, and some Republicans, has been handed some political gifts over the past few months that, in spite of some pollsters resistance to change their factors, is showing up anyway.  The Supreme Court, dominated by conservatives, gave us the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade.  I believe that was the clincher, though I think the January 6th hearings, and then the news that Trump was still holding classified documents at Mar-a-Lago has also motivated voters to move to the left on their mid-term ballot.  We've come a long way since Watergate toppled Richard Nixon.  There's a virtual expectation of some kind of allowance for Trump's corruption and criminal behavior that has given him an advantage and stymied the legal system.  But I think the voters will call this out.  Even some Evangelical leaders have their limit when it comes to insurrection and potential treason. 

And what are the Republicans offering, except to feed the conspiracy theories, deny that the most secure elections in the world aren't, and letting trillionaires take our hard earned dollars?  

Encouraged by Democrats in Red Country

Watching news clips of Beto O'Rourke campaign rallies in county seats of conservative stronghold counties in Texas is exciting.  Proportionately, when a thousand people show up and pack out a venue at a school or fairground in a place like Mineral Wells (population 15,130), most of them Beto supporters, and they drown out the few Abbott supporters who have come out holding signs, it sends a message.  Abbott isn't showing up in those kinds of places, he prefers the millionaire's clubs in the suburbs of the big cities.  

It appears to be working.  Voter registration in Uvalde County has been headed upward since the school shooting, and it surged after O'Rourke's visit there.  There are still pundits who say he won't quite make it, that Abbott, as distasteful as he is, isn't disliked as much as Ted Cruz, whom Beto almost defeated in the senate race.  But these rallies are focusing on Democrats in areas where they haven't really turned out very well since the GOP became predominant in the state, getting voters registered and going door to door making sure people get out and vote.  And as close as it appears to be, I wouldn't bet against Beto at this point, especially since Abbott isn't showing up in those places.  

At the top of the list is Stacey Abrams.  I would bet on her becoming the next governor of Georgia.  She was massively under-rated the last time she ran for statewide office, and it appears that the GOP's tactics to suppress the black vote only helps her organization register and get more black voters out.  It also picks up a lot of support from independents and third partiers.  Then there's Cheri Beasley, who, without a lot of help from the DNC, is tied with her Republican opponent in North Carolina.  That's another election where I'd bet on the Democrat.  She, too, is not assuming anything and is rallying Democratic voters in predominantly Republican areas of the state, something that I don't believe is a waste of time.  

So Do You Get the Point? 

We need to do everything we can to make sure the voter turnout on our side, and for our candidates, is an overwhelming flood of resolve that sends a clear message to the conspiracy theorists, extremists, fascists and Trumpies.  We don't want you in our government!  In addition to votes, I think this effort will probably also take courts and protesters to convince reticent GOP election officials that the power lies with the people of the United States, and not with a judge or a state legislature.  

Let's do this! 

 

Crossing the Line

 "Saying or implying that the court is becoming an illegitimate institution or questioning our integrity crosses an important line."  --Justice Samuel Alito 

Let's make something perfectly clear here.  Justice Alito works for me.  And you.  He does not work for the one-sided political interests he seems bent on representing on the court, he works for the people.  We have the right to determine what we consider to be integrity from the justices and we have the right to determine whether the current practices of a government institution contribute to its legitimacy, or take away from it.  The justice's job is to rule according to the law, the way it is written.  

We, the people, have not crossed any line.  But there are justices on the court now who most definitely have crossed lines, plenty of them.  They've called their integrity into question, ignored hundreds of years of court tradition stepping into partisan politics and then had the audacity to criticize the people who noticed and called it out.  At least, some of them did.  

Someone of Justice Alito's stature and reputation in the legal and judicial community ought to know better than to criticize the people for holding the court accountable.  He's in the wrong job if he's going to criticize public opinion.  That's for someone holing up as a law clerk in a windowless office somewhere, not in a courtroom that is open to the public.  There are many Americans who have a much better understanding and knowledge of the Constitution than some Supreme Court justices do, and those who go down in history as being respected for their honesty, integrity and are evaluated as successful in their work are the ones who acknowledge this fact, and show respect for its truthfulness. 

What I'm hearing from Justice Alito's whining about being criticized is the clear message that his retirement date should be imminent.  His chances of being remembered and revered as one of the better justices to serve have been gone for a long time and this sharp edge of frustration in his temperament won't improve his image one bit.  He's a good seven years past prime retirement age, he's never really been known for legal or judiciary brilliance or for being particularly articulate.  Now would be an excellent time to find a replacement for him.