Watching the Dallas Cowboys play the Green Bay Packers tonight, and seeing the ads that Ken Paxton is now running as he falls further and further behind James Talarico was almost heartwarming in a way. Paxton is obviously desperate, making accusations that can easily be proven false, and showing a level of contempt for the intelligence of those he thinks are his core base is as bad as anything Trump has done. Claiming that there is a chance that a kid could undergo a sex change operation during the school day is about as desperate as it can get. Claiming that his opponent isn't as Christian as he, Paxton, is, when the whole state knows that he's a serial adulterer who had one very public affair, and is known for his philandering, is the equivalent of saying that all conservative Republican Texans are stupid idiots because they will believe this tripe.
Now I've lived in Texas, over the course of 26 years from 1983 to 2010, and I can attest to the fact that there are a lot of Republicans there who are stupid idiots, and they've proven it by electing some of the worst politicians in the country, like Rick Perry and Greg Abbott, to start with, and Ted Cruz, among some other doozies. But I would guess that there are now some Texas Republicans who are looking at this tripe coming from Paxton, and who haven't forgotten the embarrassment of his impeachment and all that happened prior to and afterward, and are having real doubts about ruining their own political career by supporting him.
To my knowledge, and factually, it is not possible to perform a sex change operation on a child during a school day. And the fact that there is anyone who even thinks that there's a problem in Texas with kids leaving their house in the morning with the physical equipment of one gender and returning home later that afternoon with the equipment of another is a sign of just how stupid Paxton thinks his supporters are, and how gullible they must be. The fact that this is now part of his campaign should tell anyone who has even the smallest inkling of political knowledge that Paxton should not get their vote under any circumstance.
And Talarico's response is going to prove to be the best approach, which is to simply let Paxton rant, and spend millions on ineffective television ads while he continues to draw increasingly larger crowds, and has expanded his lead in 19 different polls by well over a 5% margin. Paxton has been running these ads for weeks, now, while Talarico's polling lead has extended to take in even the more conservatively skewed polls, and his support has reached the 50% level in virtually every poll. He now leads Paxton by percentages outside the margin of error in almost every single poll tracking this race.
Us Conservative Evangelicals Are Right, and Them Mainline Liberal Protestants Are Wrong
It's no surprise that Paxton doesn't have a church connection that includes the identifying marks of membership and regular attendance. He claims he was once associated with Prestonwood Baptist Church, the largest Southern Baptist church in Texas. It's one of those kinds of places where the pastor is flattered that some Republican politician wants his name associated with the church. But in this case, it's been somewhat controversial that Paxton, who like his inamorata Trump is a serial adulterer, a sin that Southern Baptists used to condemn. In any case, church officials at Prestonwood have confirmed that Paxton was never a member, and hasn't attended there in years.
Talarico is a minister in the United Presbyterian Church, the same denomination, ironically, that Trump claims he was raised in to try and legitimize a connection to his Evangelical base. But United Presbyterians are not conservative Evangelicals. Their theology is centered in two thousand years of Christian history and tradition when it comes to their interpretation of the Bible and their belief in the nature of God, and the Christian gospel. It is quite different from the interpretation and practice of Southern Baptists, whose fundamentalist beliefs are not rooted in Christian tradition, but in a literalist interpretation of the Bible that ignores its historical and theological context to arrive at very skewed interpretations and practices thar go back to the promotion of the Scofield Bible and the premillennial dispensationalism of John Nelson Darby.
The problem that Paxton is having here is that many Texas voters, even some Republicans, are not as stupid as they think they are. They can see Paxton's corruption that resulted in a highly publicized impeachment led by some of his fellow Republicans. The evidence regarding incidents of bribery, abuse of office, obstruction of justice and retaliation against whistleblowers, all of whom were fellow Republicans, was highly publicized and irrefutable. And on top of that, Paxton's adulterous affair and eventual separation and divorce from his wife wasn't a secret. Nor were allegations of other similar affairs, or his very open attitude that he considers this a non-issue.
The effect of all of this has been to solidify support for Talarico. A clear majority of Texas voters don't have a problem with his theological or doctrinal views regarding Christianity. Most, in fact, find themselves in agreement with him rather than with the hard line fundamentalist Southern and independent Baptists and the Pentecostals and Charismatics with their heretical "prosperity gospel" and their phony miracles and revelations that go against the Christian gospel, along with their "speaking in tongues."
Texas is also now a state where the majority of the population is made up of members of minority groups, particularly blacks and latinos who Paxton and Trump have managed to alienate if there ever really was a drift in that direction in 2024. And even though Paxton, in spite of his moral bankruptcy, still has the support of a majority of white Evangelicals, that's not going to be enough to overcome what he's lost among black and latino voters, combined with the moderate to liberal white vote.
Paxton's ads aren't aimed at bringing in new voters, they are aimed at shoring up his own base. And that's a real sign of desperation. His public appearances, few and far between, can't pack a high school gymnasium, while Talarico's supporters are jamming the larger venues in towns in some of what were once the reddest counties in the state. It's hard to sell abortion restrictions in a state where there have been multiple, highly publicized instances of women dying because they couldn't find a doctor to perform surgery to save their life because of their pregnancy, or who have had to flee the state to get the life saving care they need.
Talarico doesn't hide his Christian theology, which focuses on the exact things Jesus said were important. In fact, he quotes Jesus directly, when it comes to what he had to say about loving one's neighbor being the core foundational practice of the Christian faith, in its context. Those who claim that he's "not Christian" because of specific ideology are not basing their judgment on Biblical doctrine, but on their own skewed interpretation of it.
Paxton, of course, is not the only Republican dragging out their old line political views to try and motivate their own voters. Its happening in every place where Republicans perceive, or actually know, that the polling data is moving in favor of their opponents. Why else would they be pulling out all the stops to try and suppress voter turnout?
Was he paying attention to the size of the crowds in Texas who turned out for the No Kings marches and rallies that focused millions of participants on early voting? I guess so, if we read his ads correctly.