We will probably never know.
What we do know, though, is that it would have been a lot worse if we didn't have some governors and state officials who realized they were going to have to step up and fill the vacuum created by the federal government, and specifically the Trump administration's failure to provide leadership to protect the American people.
New York and California bore the brunt of the early impact of COVID-19. This was a new thing but there was an awareness, and a measure of preparation in both states which have dealt with the spread of infectious diseases before, though not on this scale. Because of the level of travel in and out and the amount of potential contact, the early "hot spots" were in both states. But their governors, Andrew Cuomo in New York and Gavin Newsome in California, began putting measures into effect to stop the spread.
Of course there was a lot of criticism, whining and complaining, and absolutely no support whatsoever from the Trump administration which was still trying to weight its options based on what they thought they could get out of it politically Both states experienced the early, rapid spread of COVID-19. But they took measures to make sure that the hospitals wouldn't get over-topped with more critical cases, found space in convention centers, schools and even hotels to set up temporary hospitals and in California, even brought in one of the military's hospital ships to help with the influx of cases.
So how do you evaluate the success of those measures? The highest number of cases and deaths per capita in the US turned out to be in those states where the governors left the protocols up to local officials and didn't do much, if anything, to stop the spread of COVID-19 in their states. So residents of places like North and South Dakota, Wyoming, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida and Iowa had higher odds of contracting the virus, and higher odds of dying from it. States that put restrictions in place early, enforced them and worked to make sure hospitals didn't get over-topped, were states where residents were less likely to get COVID-19 and less likely to die from it. Don't get me wrong, this was a devastating pandemic and everything we did to try and slow it down was worth it. I don't care whether you think it was or not.
Over 600,000 Americans died from the effects of COVID-19. It's a semantic argument to say that many of those deaths were the result of underlying conditions. That's the bottom line for the death rate of any viral or bacterial infection. The convoluted rationale provided by Trumpie apologists attempting to minimize the death rate and claim that it was "leftist propaganda" in order to defend his inaction and failure is more ignorant poppycock conspiracy theory for those who can't think on their own. The fact is that the number of deaths due to COVID-19 infection in the US is probably higher than 600,000. One was too many. We will very likely never really know how many lives were saved because of the preventative measures that were taken and the sacrifices made.
There were certainly some political consequences, though those governors and state officials, along with members of Congress, who decided that taking precautions and standing up for the lives of those most endangered by this virus were rewarded during the 2020 election cycle. Trump was voted out, and his incompetent, politically motivated lack of leadership and action was probably the leading cause of his loss, though his entire Presidency was a display of selfish ambition and inept incompetence. California Governor Gavin Newsome is facing a recall, but polling data shows that it will be more like a confirmation of his governorship. Expect him to get more than 60% of the vote keeping him in office.
Pandemics shouldn't be political. The health and well-being of people is far more important that trying to gain some kind of political advantage.
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