An America in political turmoil and upheaval is an opportunity for Putin. It's that simple.
The United States is a superpower. It has economic and cultural influence well beyond the percentage of the world's population that lives within its boundaries. It is a politically and militarily powerful country, to the point where its enemies realize that attempting some kind of military attack would be horrendously destructive to themselves. On the other hand, most of the world recognizes that while America isn't perfect and as a nation sometimes takes action or makes decisions that have an adverse effect somewhere, it also recognizes that having a superpower with a constitutional republic founded on democratic principles which guarantees individual liberty is preferable to having a dictatorship or oligarchy bent on world domination in control.
The United States and Russia emerged as world superpowers following World War 2. Allies only for the purpose of defeating a common enemy, the two countries pursued completely different paths to their superpower status. The Soviet Union, which was the emergent Russian superpower, eventually collapsed without the old monarchial control in place and under a restricted and unworkable political and economic system. There was a brief moment when it looked like there might be a possibility of a Democratic Russia allied with the United States but that didn't last long. Vladimir Putin's presidency, which is a dictatorship, is bent on competing with the United States for what he considers to be world hegemony. The US is an obstacle to that goal.
The competition is ideological, economic, technological and in politics and public relations. Military conflict is never ruled out, as long as both countries have significant nuclear arsenals, but for the most part, Putin sees the pathway to replacing the US as the world superpower is to undermine it from inside. Interference in elections has been a regular part of that effort for quite a while.
America is a democracy, after all, and getting elected is a matter of convincing enough people to vote for you. And while the educational level of most Americans prevents subversion through the ballot box most of the time, we've entered into an era of destructively divisive politics, sharp partisan division and "winner take all" battles over self-interest and, unfortunately, for several decades now, our educational system hasn't been one of the better ones in the world and it less effective teaching history, social studies and government than it needs to be.
The words "secession" and "civil war" are part of political conversations. Fringe elements are openly operating in state legislatures. There are media outlets committed to "alternative facts," keeping people from hearing the truth, some of it for the purpose of carving out a niche and enriching their personal bank accounts like Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck and Rupert Murdock, and others funded by "who knows where the money comes from", which get a share of the same audience. Conspiracy theories are promoted by well-funded organizations on social media. There's a mountain of evidence showing a major amount of Russian interference in elections, the 2016 Presidential race in particular.
And then there's January 6th.
What the Russians See in Trump
One of the things we've learned about the Russians is that they are great at gathering intelligence. They've read Trump's book and they see the way he operates. Trump doesn't care about laws and rules, he makes deals regardless. He doesn't see boundaries, he sees everything as negotiable and getting the better part of a deal as a "win." During the four years he spent in office, he was frustrated by the Constitutional limits on his Presidency, demonstrating in public remarks and comments a total ignorance of Constitutional law, abuse of Presidential powers and the whole executive branch, and willing to exchange favors to get around the Constitution, Congress and especially the courts. His expectation that the judges he appointed would eventually rule in his favor rather than rule on the law is the very definition of corruption.
Trump made deals with the GOP leadership, Evangelical Christian leaders and big business interests in order to get into the White House. Whether the effort made on his behalf by the Russians was part of a deal he made with them or not lies in interpretation of the results of the Mueller investigation. But I don't think January 6th came as a surprise to Vladimir Putin.
Republicans who flipped and supported Trump after publicly loathing the man for years, like Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham, to name just a few, got his endorsement. Evangelical leaders, who traded their integrity to get their people to vote for someone whose character is diametrically opposed to their values at every point, got at least two out of three Supreme Court appointees they wanted and a slew of lower court slots. Big business got the biggest tax break in history, along with all kinds of government welfare help. The Russians got January 6th.
Don't Underestimate January 6th
Downplaying of what occurred at the Capitol on January 6th is a political tactic that further undermines the constitution and the American Republic. January 6th was an insurrection, a deliberate attempt to overthrow the United States government by a coup. A mob, following the instructions of Donald Trump, marched from a rally to the Capitol under his instructions for the purpose of disrupting Congress' performance of a constitutional duty. Five people died as a result, given the intentions of many of those entering the building, the casualty list could have been much higher.
It's hard to say what would have resulted if the coup attempt had succeeded, or even how to measure its success. The fact that there is enough ignorance in this country to generate a coup attempt by its own citizens is disturbing. By now, we should know better. Ignorance is difficult to deal with and even more difficult to eradicate. It's not a problem in totalitarian countries, because it can always be suppressed by force, though eventually it results in revolution or civil war. But in a democracy, it can go to the voting booth and elect politicians who will test the limits of power and try every means possible to exploit them.
Trump's business dealings prior to becoming President are a long history of an egomaniac bulldozing his way to what he wants. He has avoided taxes, legally and illegally, hired lawyers who are able to get him around the law and if they can't, they break it and try to hide the evidence. He has flaked out on paying debts, broken contracts by just walking away and "made deals" that always bring him more in return that it costs him to pay. His marriages show a similar pattern, using the women he was married to for his benefit, having multiple affairs that publicly humiliated them and "kept them in their place" then paid two of them off when he was done with them. He's a narcissist, a pathological liar and has no sense of right and wrong, no morals, and demonstrates no remorse, repentance or respect for any system that requires it. He even mocks God by claiming that he needs no forgiveness for anything.
He's exactly the kind of man Vladimir Putin wants to see in the White House, because he knows that the incompetence, the abuses of power and the confusion and government paralysis that will occur as a result gets his country one step closer to world hegemony.
And yes, they're likely gearing up to give it another try.
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