First of all let me say up front that I'm not a political scientist or a political analyst. I studied American History and Government in college, did some additional study in political science at the graduate level, taught at both the high school and junior college level and have done my share of what most people would call "lobbying" or legislative advocacy over the past 15 years. As a result of that work, I've been in places in Washington that tourists don't see, access given by Senators or Congressmen for meetings on policy and political issues, mostly pertaining to education. I consider myself a well-informed American and it is from that perspective which I speak.
The January 6th Trump Insurrection
Let's call it and label it what it is, the Trump Insurrection and coup attempt of January 6th will be a big vote-getter for Democrats. The blocks of time that this will consume in the media and the attention that it will get as information comes in and the case is made are better than buying ads. Even the extremist right wing propaganda outlets like Newsmax and Fox have to cover it, and while they are pretty good at distraction, diversion and particularly distortion, it's going to be up there for people to see.
Biden's job approval numbers aside (there's a new A/B rated Winston Group poll out yesterday that has him at +2, 46-44 with the upper 40's being increasingly common) the numbers on January 6th are high for Democrats, Independents and Republicans who see this as a horrific event, running in the 70% range and higher, while those who side with the insurrectionist traitors are under the 30% mark. That may not all translate into votes at the ballot box, but it's there to be taken and used as a campaign issue by any Democrats who want to pad their numbers and expand their base into independent and even a little GOP territory.
Trump himself is contributing to the negativity against him. His statements inciting violence and promising pardons to participants are preaching to the shrinking choir. His recent Texas rally, which fell well below its attendance expectations, just add to the 65% of the electorate who now say they view him unfavorably. That hard core 30% of his base may be tough to convince, but it is nowhere near a large enough group to win very many elections, except in places where it is concentrated. In districts where a Trumpie is "primarying" an establishment Republican, multiple seats in Congress will go to Democrats who might not have had a real chance before. And it will be about Trump's endorsement and support.
The potential for this translating into votes is enormous. More than the President's job approval rating or that of Congress, this is a very hot button issue that's going to play a major role, along with the Big Lie, in who people choose to vote for in the 2022 mid terms. The Democrats could win on this issue alone, if nothing else was lining up for them.
COVID is a Factor
Vaccinations and mask mandates provide some good insights into the political activity of the electorate. Research has shown that the majority of those who are vaccinated are Democrats or moderate independents. The majority of anti-vaxxers are Republican and Trumpie. This is an action poll rather than just asking for a political preference. People have made a decision and took steps to follow through. I think that says a lot about who is going to show up and vote when people have shown up to get vaccinated.
The numbers are pretty high from an election standpoint. Almost 70% of adults in the US are vaccinated. Most polling data shows that a little over 70% favor mask mandates A lot of that is going to translate into votes in November, and not in the Republicans' favor. Being anti-vax and anti-mask is a losing issue. People can see the progress that has been made and contrast everything that has transpired under the current administration compared to the nothing that was done under the previous administration.
Why do I think you can look at something like this and see it translate into votes? Well, the candidates who have this advantage must use it as part of their messaging. But these are people who have received good, reliable information and they've gone out and acted on it. That tells me that they are "likely" to continue to support the effort. And since virtually everything gets wrapped up in politics these days, those who support COVID mitigation efforts like vaccinations and mask mandates clearly make up a majority of the electorate.
The Trump Administration's failed response to COVID, the indecisiveness, the ignorance and misinformation, was the nail in their election coffin. I don't think he'd have won anyway, but the lack of a coherent and workable response to an emergency was just one more demonstration of the inept incompetence of the Trump administration, and of Trump himself.
It's the Economy.....
Instead of talking about policy or drawing attention to what Senators Manchin and Sinema aren't doing, the Democrats have a political foundation for victory sitting right there for the taking. It's called a roaring economy. The last three Democratic Presidencies have all brought to you economic recovery and prosperity. The Trump administration rode on the coat-tails of President Obama's economic recovery. So, with unemployment numbers drropping like a stone in the well, the stock market showing an upward trajectory, economic growth up to near-record levels, retail sales in 202I making a startling recovery and the problems that do exist, like inflation (which is the result of a roaring economy) and the supply chain in the process of resolving, Democrats are sitting in control of the best issue they've got for winning.
Money always wins out over social issues and there's no better evidence for that than the recent past Presidential administration. The Democrats are sitting on top of an economy that will give them the opportunity to reverse the trend of the party in power losing mid-terms. It's going to be a matter of controlling the narrative and the messaging and making sure all of their constituencies turn out in large numbers. That will do the trick.
A Critical Point
This November is an election Democrats must win, especially if there is to be any reversal of the anti-Democratic movement now sweeping the Republican party. By definition, Democracy, along with the civil liberties, individual rights, and free enterprise are all liberal values. The Republicans have reach a point in a political era where the majority no longer supports their values and premises and so they've had to resort to gerrymandering and other tricks to inflate minority status to remain in power, rather than change their agenda and listen to what we the people are saying.
I like what I am seeing from Biden, venturing out to promote the infrastructure plan which has become his signature legislation after just one year. Now that we seem to be past the Christmas season doldrums, the mainstream media and those committed to promoting liberal values seem to be ramping up as we head down the calendar to the election. A strong, resolute approach to January 6th, continuing to succeed against COVID and pushing the economic narrative all get votes, and should result in a sweeping Democratic victory in November.
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