This isn't rocket science, it's politics.
I'll admit up front that I'm not a political strategist. I majored in history, minored in English with the original intention of going to law school, but got attracted to a different, history-related career while still in college and along with that comes the interest in politics. Political commentary is a writing hobby and I write from a fairly unique position here, that of being a strong, committed, progressive-to-liberal Democrat and a Christian with an Evangelical background (though I no longer identify as "Evangelical" because of what that now defines).
What I've been seeing, over the past six weeks or so, is a political shift that is pushing advantages toward Democrats and changing the mid-term election outlook. The President's job approval rating doesn't seem to show much movement, nor does Trump disapproval, but there's a lot of movement elsewhere, and it seems to be heading toward a different outcome than the standard "President's party always loses seats in Congress during the mid-terms."
Follow My Reasoning Here
Regardless of the composite poll, a clear majority of registered voters think January 6th was a genuine, certified, honest to goodness attempted coup which would have destroyed representative, constitutional democracy and turned the United States into an autocracy led by an oligarchy. A more clear and certain majority believe that it was an insurrection, that Trump was behind the organizing and motivating, and that anyone involved in it should be arrested and prosecuted, including the members of the government, Congress, the executive branch cabinet and the former President himself. The polling varies from 57% up to as high as 65% on that, depending on how the question is asked.
A clear majority of voters, 58%, believe that abortion should be legal up to a period of time between the third and sixth month of a pregnancy. About that same percentage of voters believe that if a woman's right to control her own body is affected by a decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, then other rights belonging to other groups of people are all at risk, particularly women's rights.
Over 85% of voters believe that background checks and a minimum waiting period should be required before anyone is allowed to purchase a gun, and 58% believe that high powered, military-style rifles should not be available for purchase. Somewhere in there is a clear majority who believe that 21 should be the minimum age for making a gun purchase, and a similar percentage feel that someone who has documented mental health issues should not be allowed to buy a gun.
Those numbers come out of a variety of polls, similar to other numbers and other polls and they are at least as steady as some of the political stuff from the past year. That should all translate into campaign themes which translate into votes which win elections. When someone walks into a voting booth and starts touching the screen, all of this should have an effect on where the fingers go and which buttons get pushed. Democrats, being on the correct political side of all of these issues, wanting to prosecute the January 6th criminals, believing that Roe should continue to stand and that abortion is a woman's choice, and that there should be sensible, reasonable, constitutional ownership of guns, should win the lion's share of these elections.
When Democrats don't win, its because they can't motivate voters to think about these things when they go into the voting booth. The voter is thinking "defund the police," or "socialism," or "they're coming to take away your guns" or some ridiculous Q-Anon conspiracy theory. Or the price of gas at $4.50 is not worth helping the Ukrainians or saving our democracy. What they need to be thinking about, when they walk into that booth, is the people who died in the grocery store in Buffalo, the church in California and the school in Uvalde. They need to remember photos of their faces, smiles, and the fact that they left behind grieving, hurting families who loved them. They need to be thinking that what they are doing at that moment will make a difference.
Disappointment and Frustration are Everywhere
Post from Uvalde: We Are Not a Red State, we are an Oppressed State
Look at the replies to this post on Democratic Underground, mine included. There's a lot of pent-up frustration there. And why shouldn't there be? In just a few short weeks, we've gone through this seemingly endless ritual at least three times. And a group of self-interested politicians stonewalls any effort to make things better and do something about it. The Republicans are not pro-life, as much as they want to claim that position, they won't lift a finger to change things in order to protect kids in schools and that is not a pro-life position.
Don't think that what's happened hasn't made a difference. Abbott cut and ran today. That's right. He was scheduled to appear at the NRA convention in Houston, but instead, decided that public pressure was hot enough and went to Uvalde to have a press conference instead. Now don't believe a word that he said in that press conference, but the fact that he was there, instead of in Houston, is a victory on behalf of the children who died in that shooting, and their parents. They are afraid of what the voters might do in November. It needs to stay that way.
The sense of futility and frustration that is present in Kpete's post on DU is very much a reality in Texas. I lived in Texas for 25 years, including a number of years in a South Texas county very similar to Uvalde in ethnic makeup. Latino voter registration lags behind that of white voters because there is a sense of frustration that nothing gets done and there is a fear that providing the information necessary to register will lead to invasions of privacy and harrassment that white voters don't understand. That's a reality. The post correctly reflects a genuine sense of oppression. I've seen it myself. And yes, it is motivated by ethnic bigotry. If the shooting had happened in a predominantly white, middle class suburb, the way everything has been handled and the whole reaction and response by politicians would be different.
The only way things will change is for people to get involved and while it may seem that voting is futile, the fact of the matter is that there is strength and power in unity and using the ballot box does bring change. The Latino population in Texas is now at 42%, equal to the non-hispanic white population. But their voice in government, including elected officials of both parties, is less than a third of that percentage. They're not "immigrants." Most of the Latino population of Texas, especially in the southern third of the state, are native born, and their ancestors were there several generations before the first white American settlers arrived.
This isn't "politicizing" these shootings. Far from it, the right had already politicized the issue by their failure to enact reasonable, constitutional laws that would have prevented these shootings and those who were murdered where they thought they were safe would still be alive. The Democrats are the only ones with the plans and proposals that will put a stop to this insanity. I'd much rather be accused of politicizing the event than to have to face yet another day grieving over a classroom full of dead children because I didn't do what I could. And voting for Democrats committed to gun control is the least that I can do..
We owe this to the families of the victims of the shooting in the Topps Friendly Market in Buffalo, who believed they were safe when they were doing their grocery shopping. We owe it to the families of the victims of the shooting in the church in California, who thought it was safe to worship God. We owe it to the families of those precious children in Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, who were only thinking of the last few days of school and though they were safe in their classroom. We owe this to the parents of the students who died at Sandy Hook Elementary school, at Marjorie Stoneman Douglas High School, at Columbine, to every single family member of every person in this country who thought their rights were equally protected under the law.
We owe them more than just our vote. That's the least we can do.
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