Getting a perspective on reality from a mainstream media that plays to the sensational extremes in order to increase audience size, get ratings up and generate more advertising revenue is difficult. What we see are comments from journalists who have their own program, or "show," and then a panel of individuals who represent the more extreme perspectives and views to give commentary that looks balanced, but rarely if ever fits that description. And that's not just the extremist media, either, it's been the M.O. at CNN for a long time, and it's creeping into MSNBC.
I'll give a shameless plug here for the Pacifica Radio Network, which is about the only place I know of where you get pure news in a non-commercial format. The stations are located in San Francisco-Berkeley, Los Angeles, Houston, Washington, DC and New York, but all of them have an internet stream. And they are a welcome escape and break from the increasing sensationalism surrounding American elections. With a little of that peace and quiet, it is possible to gather thoughts and gain some perspective.
As Trump Sinks into Hopeless Extremism, His "Popularity" is Waning Considerably
It's become apparent, with all of Trump's screaming, raging, ranting and raving about the election that he clearly lost, and the blatant ignorance he has demonstrated in what he points to as evidence that he didn't, that he doesn't understand that getting elected is a matter of getting the most votes. He leans much more to the side of those who believe that manipulating the right people will get you what you want. Why not? That's worked for him in business all his life. And this isn't a sarcastic statement, either. It's a conclusion that can be made by listening to him, if you can keep from throwing up during his rants. He doesn't think ballots matter, what matters is having enough influence or putting enough pressure on the right people to change outcomes.
So his campaign rallies and speeches and the support and publicity he puts out tends to run to the extremes he supports, mainly those whose politics are the same as his. He's all about exchanging favors, a process he calls "making deals" to gain an advantage. He doesn't follow any pattern that is aimed at expanding his voter base. He only wants a cheering crowd in increasingly smaller venues, as a backdrop for his proclamations, which now feature background music that sounds eerily like Q-Anon themes, which he buys into like a kid with an unlimited allowance in a candy store.
The more he holds rallies and campaigns for those candidates he's endorsed, the more percentage points in the polls they lose, especially among independent voters. At the beginning of this election season, the Republicans held an advantage that, combined with the gerrymandering they've done, put them in a position to take control of Congress. The Democrats faced an uphill battle. But as Trump continues to insert himself into the campaigns, in places where his endorsees won nominations, though those who won did so by very slim margins among Republicans, the Democratic party advantage grows.
The Dobbs decision was a big motivator. But even before Dobbs, and since, there's evidence that independents and even some Republicans are moving toward support for Democrats running for house seats in close, contested districts. The alarm bells that were ringing in some competitive house races in red states with blue pockets have shifted to some red districts, even in some conservative states like Texas and Florida, where the composite poll's list of races being moved from "leans Republican" to "toss up" is twice as long as it was at the beginning of the summer.
Voters Aren't Being Offered Anything Except Complaints About Election Fraud
Conspiracy theories lack substance and evidence to prove they're accurate. And while there are too many Americans who are ignorant enough to be duped by them, it's not a large enough group to sustain long term support without the rest of the Republican party, along with at least some independents, buying into them. Having a few thousand people show up to cheer you on, though Trump rallies these days resemble athletic events where the score gets out of hand early and people leave after the halftime show, is an illusion of support.
Admittedly, Republicans had a great narrative going into the midterms, mainly inflation rates cutting into consumer buying power, due to supply chain issues and COVID recovery. They didn't offer much in the way of resolving inflation, and they don't have a great track record when it comes to their way of managing the economy, which led to a major recession under their leadership during the first Republican presidency of the 21st century. But they offered nothing as a response. That gave them an advantage, though not nearly as large as the one the Democrats had in 2006.
But the Dobbs decision united quarreling Democrats, the economy continued to soar in spite of inflation, unemployment reaching its lowest levels in 50 years under Biden, not Trump, economic growth slowed, but the administration has done exactly the right things to keep it moving along, and now inflation is also slowing down considerably, along with the price of gas dropping, which was perhaps the last GOP advantage before November. As primary results have produced some Trump endorsed candidates in some states, though not anything close to what he predicted or claimed to have helped, it's clear that Trump's conspiracy theory themes are subtracting potential voters from Republican candidates. Even the far right outliers, where Republicans have taken comfort in the face of defeat, are not showing numbers that give a lot of hope to GOP candidates who carry Trumpism on their back.
January 6th and the Mar-a-Lago Document Scandal are Taking a Toll on Trumpism
Most of the composite pollster commenters say these two scandals have given Democrats at least a ten point bump in the polls over the summer and into the fall. That, along with the backlash and continued fallout from the Dobbs decision, will be the keys that give Democrats the victory of keeping control of Congress in November, and I don't think it will be as close as the pollsters do at the present time, because I think that their factoring data is outdated and doesn't reflect the kind of on-the-ground support Democrats are getting. They missed Kansas, badly. But they also missed the Alaska special election for the house. It's not as easy to poll ranked-choice voting, but Democrat Mary Peltola picked up more than 10% more of the votes as the first choice candidate than expected, and at least that many more of the ranked choice votes which were expected.
The Mar-a-Lago scandal has opened a lot of people's eyes to the corruption of Donald Trump. The fact that he went out of his way to get his case in front of a judge he hand-picked, and then got a ruling in his favor that went well outside the boundaries of the law, requiring an apellate court to reel it back in, exposing her corruption and his, has helped demonstrate exactly what it is that Trump offers. And appointment of corrupt, inexperienced judges with the expectation of getting something out of them down the road is not a good campaign theme. The fact that people who are being interviewed in independent media are mentioning this is an indication that a lot more people are probably weighing this as an issue that will affect the way they cast their ballot in November.
So Many Crimes Make Trump the Drag on the GOP's Chances
In order to make the claim to being the party of law and order, Republicans have to show that they respect law and order, and they abhor criminals, regardless of their political affiliation or how much power and influence they may wield within their own party. Otherwise, they're hypocrites that can't be trusted. I've evaluated them as the latter for quite some time, for more reasons other than Donald J. Trump, but he's really helped clarify their position as a party that stands for little more than the ambitious pursuit of power. As long as Trump is recognized as the party political chief, they can't be what he isn't and since he isn't respectful of constitutional law, neither are they.
Even the Dobbs decision, which is proving to be disastrous for GOP midterm hopes, can be laid at the feet of Trump, who appointed the three justices to the Supreme Court that the Federalist Society and the Freedom Caucus recommended as one of his deals, and their contribution to that decision will be the decisive factor in the mid-terms. Add that to the rest of Trump's negative drag, including a disapproval rating that is heading over the 60% mark, and when the GOP fails to gain control of either house of Congress, and Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi continue as leaders of Congress, they can accurately lay the blame on Trump.
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