When the speculation of the media becomes reality, that's something worth noting.
Kevin McCarthy's problems in getting elected Speaker of the House have been talked about even before it became known for sure that the GOP would get control of the house back. Satisfying reports in the media, saying that "Republicans are in disarray," have been unusually blunt, with an edge of criticism of their handling of a process that hasn't caused so much confusion and controversy for a hundred years. Republicans truly are in "disarray," winning control of the house on the strength of their ability to gerrymander congressional districts more than on their ability to convince voters they've got the answers to America's problems. Oh, yeah, they did win a majority of the votes in the House elections, but that's mainly due to the pile-up of voters in heavily Republican states in districts drawn to favor Republicans.
In the statewide races for Senate and in gubernatorial races, they took a beating, especially in the "battleground" states.
I had to take a look this week and see how Fox News was handling this Republican debacle in the House. Predictably, they were also in disarray, if I may overuse that term. There's a painful awareness on the propaganda side of extremist conservatism of the fact that the support of the electorate, in those places where they need to win to claim federal elected office, is waning. They can downplay it all they want, and "take comfort" in the fact that they "took back the House," what they got fell far, far short of what they anticipated. The fight in the house, like a brawl on the football field where a heavily favored team can't quite put their opponents away, raised significant alarm among the pundits on the extreme right.
I'm a Believer in Accountability
Government change takes time. I'm frustrated by the fact that even though it is clear Donald Trump committed multiple crimes against the people of the United States, through his seditious behavior in inciting a riot aimed at overturning the constitution's provision for a peaceful transfer of power and then all through his presidency, up to and including his theft of classified documents from the White House which I personally believe he did at the request of a foreign power that is our enemy, in order to benefit himself, not caring about the political or international consequences of that. I'm frustrated because I think he should have been indicted long before now, and he should be held over for his multiple trials.
I'm frustrated because the 14th Amendment to the Constitution seems impossible to enforce. It's there, because of the abandonment of American values by Confederate sympathizers in Congress who supported those who took up arms against the United States to defend the inhumane practice of slavery. Any member of Congress, from fist-pumping Josh Hawley, to those in the House like Lauren Boebert, who helped insurrectionists by giving them tours of the building so they could find their way to the offices and safe rooms of their political opponents, should, at the very least, be expelled from their seats and never allowed to return, because their support for insurrection, and potential participation in it, was obvious. If that amendment had been enforced, there would now not be a GOP majority in the House of Representatives. But its weakness is enforcement. So right now, it's nothing more than words.
But, in this constitutional democracy, where the power of government is derived from the will of the people, there is ultimate accountability in the ballot box. And it worked, on election day in 2020, when voters went to the polls and issued their indictment, conducted a trial and passed sentence on Donald Trump by voting against him in numbers greater than those who still supported him. That movement actually started in 2018, when the term "blue wave" came into common use to describe the sweep of seats in a house election that Republican gerrymandering had made far more difficult than it would have been otherwise.
Why There's a "Blue Tsunami" on the Way
A lot of pundits, prior to and after the midterm election, have tried to focus attention on issues that motivate votes. Crime and inflation, which Republicans made the centerpiece of their campaign, were definitely on people's minds, but a lot of voters weren't sure they could trust Republicans to resolve them, since almost as many voters who thought these were important issues supported Democratic candidates. Democrats did control the narratives when it came to saving American democracy, and the Supreme Court Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade was a huge motivator for Democrats.
But issues don't always drive the electorate and there were voters who went to the polls motivated by other factors, including candidate quality, which was high on the list. Other than in some heavily gerrymandered districts, the Trump endorsed extremist candidates, running mainly on election denial going back to the 2020 election, lost across the board, specifically in statewide elections in battleground states. If the midterms were, as the media labelled them, a "referendum on the Biden administration," then he won the referendum. If it was also a referendum on Trumpism, election denying and approval of the insurrection as a legitimate protest, then all of that was defeated.
The Republicans lost control of several state legislatures and governorships, and squeaked out a narrow majority in Congress, where, on their first day of control, actually lost control of the process of electing a speaker for the entire week and created an embarrassing spectacle that has helped boost Democrats' chances at regaining the majority in 2024 in a way that millions of campaign dollars couldn't provide. And with the rules changes and committee assignments that were traded off for McCarthy to pick up the speaker's chair, we can look forward to two years of chaos under Republican leadership.
The chaos also thrust some of the GOP's most annoying, despicable, inept, incapable extremists to the front of the line, where the rest of the country can get a good perspective of their unpatriotic anti-American extremism. Matt Gaetz' despicable attitude and behavior last week prompted one of the members of his own party to physical violence against him. This small group of white supremacist bigots, fascist political hacks and violent thugs, are responsible for the complete disarray in which the Republican party now finds itself. The others are no less responsible for it, by not standing up for what they say they believe in, and silencing their ignorance, but these extremists, who have successfully "controlled the narrative" this past week, with complete chaos being the result, will be the wedge that drives independents and even moderate Republicans to the Biden Administration's re-election bid and will help Democrats lock down control of Congress in 2024.
Is that going out on a limb? Not any more than Michael Moore did when he confidently stated, during the week prior to the midterms, that the Democrats would keep the Senate and there would not be even so much as a red trickle. And I say that with the same evidence in hand. The extremist narrative built by Trumpism has, like the Tea Party movement before it, run its course, because conspiracy theories don't generate credibility and their politicians don't have solutions to solve their perceived problems. And they are outnumbered by those who have the education, common sense and awareness of what's going on, some of who may be attracted to populist themes for a while, but who eventually see the lack of character and values that zap the credibility of that approach.
Even among the core of white Evangelicals, where aberrant theology and doctrine, like white Christian nationalism, pulls many of them in to vote for the extremists, there are those who have become turned off by the gross immoral excesses and the obvious dishonesty and lack of integrity of Trump and his minions. They flaunt it, and while many Evangelicals find ways to excuse it because they like the politics, there are others who see that if they continue to support it, it destroys the credibility of the Christian gospel they claim is their priority, mission and purpose.
The Pendulum has Already Swung Back to the Left
I was one of those who thought, prior to Trump's election, that he would never be able to achieve enough support, even in the kooky GOP, to get elected President. His previous attempts to do so were jokes, really, I don't believe very many people took them seriously. I was genuinely surprised when he secure the nomination, as much by the fact that he actually got that kind of voter support from within the GOP, as by the passive cringing of Republican leaders like Jeb Bush, who slipped into humiliated silence after losing so badly, and Ted Cruz, who wouldn't lift a finger to defend himself against horrid, childish insults and lies directed at his family, including his own father and his wife. So much for the party of "family values."
But even though our flawed system of electing a President let him get through the door, once he did, his true self came forward, he proved incapable of handling the office, the work, the pressures, the criticism and lacked the intelligence, discernment, wisdom and knowledge to carry out the responsibilities and duties of the presidency. He failed, and the peak of his support was not enough to overcome that of his opponent, who was elected because he had everything Trump didn't have, when it came to public service.
But it was his response to the loss, the corrupt manipulation of the power of the Presidency to set himself up as dictator, thwart the will of the people, subvert the constitution, declare war against the people of the United States and their elected government, that has been the end of his era. That's where he lost any hope of ever being trusted with public office again, and any chance of gaining enough support from voters to even get close enough to think there might be a chance at re-election. His political career is over and he will end either in prison, or, like Nixon, a disgraced and isolated paranoiac.
Those who continue to grab on to Trumpism, and who push themselves to be the face of the GOP will bring the whole party down with them. There will always be the pockets of disgruntled, unhappy, uneducated ignorance where Republicans have few challengers, but I believe we are on the verge of seeing Democrats gain and hold Congressional power for at least a decade. The pendulum always swings, but perception and discernment, along with understanding that this is a democracy where the will of the people is sovereign, is the trademark of leadership. As long as Democrats realize that, like Joe Biden has done, they will have the mantle of leadership.
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