The 2022 midterm elections were a gift to the Democratic party. I've never believed Republicans ever represented the mainstream of America, since I consider myself in the mainstream, and I have little in common with the GOP, less now than ever before. But I think the narrative heading into 2024 is being written as we speak, and I think that there are some personalities within the Democratic party who are picking up the themes and crafting them into what I believe will be an overwhelming advantage for Democrats running for anything in 2024.
This is my list of things that need to be in the narrative, so to speak, not necessarily prioritized, but which, by observing trends, polls, listening and reading, lead me to conclude that they are vote getters and winning issues. Democrats always get accused of being too much on the side of policy, less on the side of feeling. But these issues all seem to be producing a lot of feeling, and they're moving forward pretty rapidly.
All Things Trump
This is the largest gift-wrapped package under the tree. The presence of Donald J. Trump as a candidate for President is enough to tilt the Presidential election back to Biden by at least as much as he won the last time. This time around, the independent voters have dwindled and melted away, below the 30% favorability threshold, and Republicans who are not likely to vote for the orange headed buffoon are in double digits. If he manages to get all the way through the nomination process and into the election, I would find that very concerning, even more so that he would get votes. But it won't be enough, not by a mile.
An even better scenario would be that he gets the GOP nomination and then picks a raving lunatic nut job for a running mate out of those popular with his base. Then, he winds up getting convicted of seditious conspiracy and is no longer eligible to run. I don't think he's smart enough to pick a Republican who might actually be able to win. He'll grab one of the extremists vying for his attention and really weaken the ticket.
His 2016 win was an electoral college accident that won't be repeated. Instead of focusing hours of news coverage on his orange head, focusing it on his lack of a comprehensive agenda of any kind will do the trick. And while it may seem anecdotal, among the extremists I know who have been his biggest flag wavers, the enthusiasm is pretty low. Maybe his supporters just naturally get beaten down by the atmosphere in a state like Illinois, but there's not nearly the kind of enthusiasm about him running as there has been the past two cycles.
Tennessee is Providing a Gun-Control, Racism Double Punch
Another gift that has been given to Democrats by hard line Republicans aiming to control state legislatures without the constitutional protection provided for minority viewpoints has come through Tennessee. In their zeal to smack down a couple of younger, African American legislators to show their own bigness, they made a gigantic mistake. They gave them a national platform. They also made themselves look a lot less potent than they intended. Justin Jones was reinstated by the legislative body that had the authority to do so, unanimously, I might add. It looks like Justin Pearson will also be reinstated.
The attention that has been drawn to the Tennessee legislature, and its locked-down Republican majority has been damaging to the far right extremists who run it. Several years ago, a political reporter for the Nashville daily newpaper, The Tennessean, said it would take a major political awakening in Tennessee among moderate to liberal voters who have been lulled into inaction by Republican dominance, to turn things around. This looks very much like that's happening.
There will be more interest from the far right in curbing unrestricted assault weapon acquisition with this particular shooting, which took place on their turf, in a conservative, Evangelical Christian school in an affluent, white neighborhood. Democrats will, of course, be out in front on this issue, and may actually experience some success. People are tired of school shootings committed by insane people with assault weapons. The poll numbers are great for those who want to take action and put a stop to this madness. That would be the Democrats, by the way.
We will see how tired they are of the same old white supremacy rearing its ugly head. Every African American, Latino and Asian adult over 18 who lives in Tennessee should be registered to vote and ready to wait in line, along with whites who are tired of watching economic opportunity go elsewhere because the state's racism is so repulsive to businessmen and women of color. Who in the world thought that it would be a good idea to expel three legislators for participating in a protest? That was bad enough, but it really turned into a major mess when the one white legislator who was part of the protest was spared expulsion while the two youngest members of the legislature, who happened to be African American males, were kicked out. I don't think the effect of that horrible move can be effectively measured in terms of political damage done to the GOP, especially in Tennessee, as a result of that mistake.
The Dobbs Decision is the Gift that Keeps on Giving
Didn't we know that, in the wake of any court ruling that overturned either part or all of Roe v. Wade, there would be idiocy and stupidity on the right that would boggle the mind? We did, but I don't think anyone really imagined that it would turn out to be as bad as it is. In their zeal to force their will on everyone else, the right is simply helping to set the table for the return of Roe more quickly than they imagined it would happen if it ever were repealed.
I concur with most of the commentators and pundits on the left, that the Dobbs decision was the single most important factor in turning back what could have been a disastrous mid-term election. But the plunge into confusion and disarray (one of my favorite words) that has overtaken the Republican party in the aftermath of the election has turned into a political advantage that may only come around once in a century. It's been heartwarming to see how Democratic politicians have responded to this. The Republican party, the Republican-led Congress and the Supreme Court are all under water in a flood of political contempt.
The polling data on this keeps widening as various legislatures do their thing. I even have some good words to say about the media on this. They were pointed to Idaho as an example of where the Dobbs decision and the overturning of Roe would be the most extreme, and do the most damage. I think MSNBC got the ball rolling but other networks have followed up on the story. Women in an entire state are losing access to maternity care, because their state legislature has been so extreme when it comes to the follow up on Roe. What kind of political thinking leads to putting women at risk by making some of them drive up to six or seven hours to find a hospital that will treat them if they are pregnant?
A Simple Message That Motivates Voters
Modern Presidential politics has come down to a numbers game. Assess the situation, collect the money and put it in places where there's almost a guarantee of shoring up the numbers and preserving the status quo. Win where it's a sure thing, minimize the risk in marginal elections and let the rest of it go. And that is exactly why Democrats find themselves gerrymandered out of legislative control in states where they have a 50-50 split, or even a slight majority.
That's not good enough. Red counties, or congressional districts, or legislative districts, also contain Democratic voters. And they also have a number of adults who are eligible to vote but who don't register because of the apathy created by years of single party domination. They may be sympathetic to Democrats, but they've become apathetic about voting. Those people, along with independent voters, are the kind of people Democrats need to reach with what is clearly a successful and winning narrative involving the protection of individual rights guaranteed under the constitution.
Tennessee has some of the lowest voter turnout in the nation. It remains to be seen how these events, including the shock of a school shooting and the expulsion of two young black men from the legislature, will affect voters but in the few days since these things have transpired, it has put literally thousands of people in the streets of the Tennessee capital city, making their voices heard and their opinions known. In the wake of the Dobbs decision, legislative houses in seven states flipped to the Democrats in a mid-term year when they are the party in power in the White House, an unheard-of occurrence.
So the narrative works to motivate voters. Now is the time to be smart, to take advantage of the gains, to keep this at the forefront of the news cycle, minimizing the "Trump did this or that today" message and emphasizing the fact that Democrats are fighting for individual rights. Read some of the news stories coming out of Tennessee this week. Democrats in the state are as energized and positive as they have been since the days of Al Gore. The Republican governor, who, up to this point, has been one of the biggest obstacles to any kind of movement on gun control, is sending signals that show the pressure has been turned up and he is worried that the party's control may be in danger.
Let's keep it simple, Democrats. Take advantage of every gift, especially as indictments come down on Trump. The 2024 election season is shaping up to be the party's best moment of the new century. Be generous with financial support and vote in every election.
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