Poll Shows Biden Beating Trump Big Even if Manchin Runs Third-Party
Newsweek: Monmouth Poll Shows Trump's Unpopularity at Highest Levels Ever
Just a couple of weeks ago, the news media, in which the name Donald Trump is featured multiple times every day, was all over the place with the announcement that, in some obscure polling data picked up by one of the major networks, the failed former President 45 was "closing in" with polls showing him either tied, or just a few points behind President Biden in head to head polling. Now, in going to the websites of composite polls, places like 538 and Real Clear Politics, there's a whole array of daily tracking poll data available from which to pick and choose one's favorites, based on the data that is presented. But aside from fluctuations caused by what must be a plethora of phone conversations, text messages and emails used to gather the daily data, the trends have been pretty clear. Trump's "favorability" rating as a Presidential candidate runs constently underwater by a good 15 to 20 points, and while Biden's job approval rating still hovers in the 40's, his unfavorability is nowhere near that high.
Head to head, or with other factors put into the mix, it's been pretty clear that by a very slight margin, the nation seems to wish that some new candidates would break onto the scene. But the numbers show a solid and consistent preference of a majority of voters for re-electing the President, given the current possibilities and choices. While there may be a desire to see new faces, none of the new faces that have emerged up to this point are the ones that voters want to see.
It's the GOP, not the Democrats, who Have the Problem Here
It's become clear that, other than a shrinking MAGA base, there's no real desire among the American electorate to put the man who was the most corrupt, worst President in history back into the White House. A majority of Americans never wanted him there, he never got the confidence of the voters, winning only because an anti-democratic, antiquated Electoral College skewed the will of the people in 2016, largely due to third party interference, and then, for four years did absolutely nothing to establish himself as a competent, effective commander-in-chief. And the end result of his failure was a defeat in 2020, one that, in spite of the Electoral College, and of partisan single-mindedness, was solid and decisive.
And now, because of the base of MAGA support, and because of absolutely no other reason than that, combined with the sharp, partisan loyalty that George Washington labelled as a negative influence in his farewell address, the Republican party is stuck with a candidate that two-thirds of the electorate won't vote for. That's if this recent Monmouth poll, not one that is particularly well known or acclaimed, is correct.
A Significant Change in Political Factors
This has been out for a couple of days, and yet, I've not heard any of the round-the-clock cable media news sources say much about it, not nearly as much as they do when Trump gains a point here or there. A poll showing Biden ahead by nine points might not be really newsworthy, except that this one shows him even further ahead when Joe Manchin is factored in as a possible independent, third party candidate. Manchin is between a rock and a hard place right now. He's going to have the toughest fight he's ever had in West Virginia for his senate seat. He's played his "guy in the middle" card to the point where he has practically zero support from Democrats, and almost that low level of support among independents who aren't all that conservative themselves. He also has little support among conservatives, because the polarization of American politics leaves nothing in the middle for fence sitters and self-promoters like Manchin.
But this is big news. Democrats have feared a third-party candidate, like Manchin, could put Trump back in office. Jill Stein's Green Party candidacy was directly responsible for subtracting just enough Democratic votes in several states in 2016 to cost her the election, and that's a mathematically provable fact. Yet, while Biden's percentage of the vote in the poll drops with Manchin factored in, the presence of the third party actually takes more support away from Trump, dropping his percentages to levels that represent only the very hard core of his MAGA base.
That's news. So where is the media jumping on this? Yeah, that's what I thought.
Stay Tuned Because There's Much More to Come
The President has strong support within his own party, and no other candidate has anything anywhere near what they will need to qualify for a debate appearance. If Manchin runs on some sort of third party candidacy, it will be the very end of his political career. He has to weight whether or not he has a better chance at winning back his senate seat, odds of which are 50-50 at best right now, though he does have a slight lead in the polls over his best known potential challenger. Either way, Democrats don't have to worry nearly as much about a third party candidacy by Manchin as they would from one on the left, along the lines of Stein's misguided and disastrous run in 2016. Manchin activity in the senate these past two years has been aimed at gaining support from West Virginia conservatives, so he's not going to pull many votes from Democrats. He sunk his chances at that with his record these past two years.
Indictments are finally raining down around the failed former President 45, and it appears that the bulls eye of January 6th indictments is about to be hit with more of them in a court environment much less favorable to the Orange-headed buffoon. He is getting smacked down in efforts to use his candidacy as a shield from prosecution, an argument that is getting tiresome and weary, and is, in my opinion, one of the reasons why an increasing number of Americans don't want to see him as a candidate for any elected office again.
I'm optimistic enough, at this point, to think we are going to get our wish.
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