A Welcome and Unexpected Turn of Events Tells the Tale of a Much Different Election

During my morning coffee break, while checking the news, I came upon two different sources announcing that the most recent New York Times/Siena College polling data shows Kamala Harris has shifted the national lead, and has equal, four point leads in the "blue wall" states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.  In fact, most news sources are now saying that Harris is in the lead, both nationally and in battleground states that would put her well past the 270 votes she needs to win.  The Times/Siena stood out because it has been particularly negative and sharp when it comes to criticism of the President, his administration, and his campaign.  

My interest in what the New York Times has to say about politics, which, I must admit, I have always taken with a grain of salt so to speak, evaporated almost completely during the 2022 mid-terms as they injected a somewhat gleeful tone into reporting that broadly hinted at the big red wave which was coming, the inevitable downfall of Democratic party Presidential administrations in the first mid-term after claiming the White House.  They depended heavily on the Siena College poll, citing it like it was as authoritative and accurate as a dictionary and thesaurus.  

Of course, the "red tsunami" never materialized, and turned out to be, as critics of the media called it, "the pink trickle."  Thanks to Michael Moore, who kept insisting that the mid-term shift wasn't going to be anything close to the traditional prognostications, and Nicole Wallace of MSNBC, who kept pinning pollsters to the wall to provide actual evidence out of their data that even justified the use of the term "red wave," I did enjoy some peace of mind during the week prior to the election.  I haven't taken the Times or it's Siena College Poll, seriously since then.

So when I saw the data put out by the Times, I am prompted to start thinking about what is happening in the Democratic party as something we haven't really seen before.  Memory does fade over time, but I can't think of any past election since the Second World War that would even compare to what we have been seeing happening over the past three weeks. 

We have gone from the shock of the President's unexpectedly muddled debate performance, on which Democratic party leaders were placing expectations that were far too high for change, even if it had gone well, to inexcusable confusion and chaos as money interests used high profile pressure to try and get the President to step out of the campaign, to overwhelmingly nominating Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Tim Walz as the "ticket."  The uncertainty about how the party would go about nominating a candidate literally weeks before the convention without a clear path forward had many Democrats, including myself, in despair, believing that the way we were headed was guaranteeing a Trump victory.  That's all gone.  

I thought President Biden's record had earned him a second term, and I believe he'd have gotten it.  But that's all old news now.  What President Biden has earned is the admiration and respect of every Democrat in this country for an unprecedented and selfless sacrifice of what he had earned, and deserved, and for the leadership he continued to exercise, in the midst of chaos, in endorsing his Vice President in order to avoid wasting even more weeks of valuable campaign time on almost certain confusion and bickering over picking a nominee long after all the primary ballots had been counted.  That was the only way to make sure those fifteen million Democrats who supported the President during the primaries were not disenfranchised.  And I think, as these last three weeks have proven, it was the best possible move the Democratic party could have made in choosing a candidate.  

Guarded Optimism Doesn't Prohibit Thinking About Possibilities

The turnaround that has occurred since then has been miraculous and remarkable.  It is a testimony to the political savvy of the Vice President and her team, and to everyone who has become involved, that this has happened.  It's a testimony to the unselfishness and political experience of President Joe Biden, to make this decision in the first place, and then make sure the party coalesced around Harris before any time passed at all.  It worked.  

Like Tim Walz, I was a social studies teacher for 20 years before moving into administration.  I actually wrote the curriculum objectives for, and taught, a class for both high school and middle school students, to be taught alongside American History in election years, called "The Modern American Presidency," which looks at, and compares every election since 1932.  The class compares, and contrasts each election, looking at trends, similarities, differences, voter responses, what drives turnout or keeps people at home, and ultimately works to encourage students to register and vote when they are old enough, and to engage in the political process beyond that.  

If I were to teach that class this fall, it would be difficult to find anything in the past, going back to 1932, that compares to what we see happening now.  The partisan divide is so much sharper, and the radicalization of so many voters into impenetrable information silos has created circumstances which defy predicting what's going through people's minds and how they will vote.  

But there are a couple of things that have become much clearer over these past six weeks.  One is that there is a very large segment of the electorate which clearly recognizes the significance and scope of the threat Trump poses to American democracy, freedom and patriotic values. The other is that constitutional protections of individual frreedoms, the rule of law, and the values and virtues that characterize the American spirit are still very much present and evident in our society and culture.  

I don't want to sound overly optimistic, and get too far ahead of where things really stand.  But I think this election is shaping up to be much different than what we have seen as typical patterns in voting since 2000.  There are some margins along which staunch partisanship is breaking down, as Republicans in places where voicing their opinion can, and in some cases already has, cost them their position, speaking up against the total and complete collapse of values represented by the Trump campaign and his MAGA base.  

There's been a clear resurgence among Democratic party constituencies, evidenced by a burst of volunteers, money, mostly small contributions from millions of contributors, and in voter registration, that are setting records in terms of their rapid pace.  We've been talking about fixing a lag in minority voter support for the past two election cycles, 2016 and 2020, and that has rapidly closed during these past three weeks.  Major union endorsements, which have sometimes been less than enthusiastic, have come in unprecedented swiftness, especially the UAW, which is still a key to carrying Michigan, and the Culinary Workers Union in Nevada, which is key to carrying that battleground state.  

But it's just the overall enthusiasm of this campaign, and the unity which coalesced within days around Kamala Harris, that makes me think we may be looking at one of the largest popular vote and electoral majorities won by a Democratic candidate in an election this century.  I believe we are looking at margins along the lines of Obama's 2008 victory over John McCain, who had integrity and believed in values that escape Trump altogether.  

We've been damaged heavily by the polarization that has occurred, and by Trump's open use of racism and bigotry to divide and conquer.  I really hadn't realized, until he came along, how much reticent racism exists in this country, protected as it is in several cultural institutions, particularly the conservative, Evangelical churches.  So I'm not expecting a Johnson-Goldwater kind of election, in which there was a similar political climate.  

But I do think that the Harris-Walz ticket will comfortably clear the electoral college hurdle, and I think their number will get past Biden's 2020 figure.  The media claims that certain conditions have to happen and certain events have to trigger reactions to get to this place or that place as far as the vote turnout and results are concerned.  I think we have already seen some of this, even in the flip flop of Utah's governor Spencer Cox.  Clearly he has doubts about Trump, in spite of also having a weak will that can be exploited and bought.  But there are way more than the usual number of other similar Republicans dropping off the Trump train, including 21% of the primary electorate.  

Ultimately, though, I think the Harris-Walz campaigns themes, especially their joy, and their positive approach to the campaign, and their ability to ignite, activate and move Democratic party constituencies to action will be what wins this election, and it will win it big.  Of course, look at what they're running against.  That's a losing ticket if there ever was one, and they are showing out big time.  And while they do have the advantage of most Americans knowing that Trump is a con artist, a grifter, and, by definition, an antichrist, they also have the advantage of a message with a long list of political advantages which appeal to a clear majority of the electorate.