How do we even evaluate the success of efforts that are working towards getting enough people on the march, and on the move, to bring about a change in the direction this country is headed under the most ideologically and politically unAmerican President we've ever had in office. In fact, Trump, in terms of his complete and utter lack of patriotism, lack of understanding of American history and the Constitution, and his racist bigotry, is in a category all by himself when it comes to "UnAmerican Presidencies." There haven't been any others.
I must admit, I've had my doubts about the effectiveness of this direction the opposition to Trump has taken. For the most part, at least at the beginning, the GOP, and more specifically the MAGA wing of it, serenely ignored the protests and marches, as did Trump and most of his administration. Personally, I thought that it was too passive, that it was getting people out, but not really directing the energy anywhere, while the Democratic party leadership in Congress seemed to be kind of separated from it, disengaged, cowering behind the excuse of "well, we don't have a majority."
We didn't do what we could have when we had a majority.
New leadership, badly needed, came into the DNC. I had high hopes until the status quo decided that the risk taking energy of new leadership like David Hogg wasn't going to fit, and forced him out. And to be honest, the energy, and a lot of the money, has gone with Hogg. The DNC remains stuck in its moribund existence, shuffling papers and passing meager cash donations around here and there. So much for that.
Signs That the Protest Movement Might Be Having an Effect
The far end of the spectrum that I use to measure the effectiveness of these protests is their ultimate success in getting Trump and his administration out of the White House before the midterm elections can be rigged in favor of the GOP. That would be a huge success. And the prospect of that happening might be highly unrealistic, for sure. At the opposite end of the spectrum is that nothing really happens at all. No motivation from the support generated by literally millions of people out in the streets would be disappointing. And unfortunately, it is also a much more realistic outcome.
I know there's supposedly some kind of political "law" that claims a certain percentage of the politically engaged population getting out in the streets is a threshold for change, but we don't seem to be able to generate that kind of engagement, and this is a much larger country than those who promote this theory have ever used as an example.
So, the primary value of these protests so far seems to be the creation of an increased awareness of exactly how bad things are, and to move people, especially those who sat out the last election, to the ballot box. If the trends of the more accurate polling data continue in the same direction, the Democrats will have a House majority after 2026, and it is also likely that they will have at least one more seat in the Senate than the Republicans can overcome with the Vice-President's presence. That would, at least, put a stop to the MAGA agenda.
Will enough Republicans get the message to make a difference now? That's doubtful. But they are paying attention.
Signs of the Effect of Protests on the GOP
Republicans, especially the MAGA core of the party, have gone from ignoring the protests, as much as they can since the size of some of them have been at record proportions and they are hard to ignore, to name calling and labelling. Inventing "Antifa" presence, because it sounds unAmerican, claiming the huge number of protesters are paid, or are Hamas allies, or terrorists is a change from simply ignoring them early on, are signs that the GOP is not only well aware of the size and scope of the protests, but they are intensely frightened of the potential outcome of them.
A couple of the GOP's less intellectual fascists have already broken cover and run.
Kristi Noem, in particular, waging a campaign with Homeland Security tax dollars, has broken the silence indicating that Republicans have taken note of just how badly their support has dropped since Trump got back in the White House. Television ads promoting free trips for those here "illegally" back to where they came from, complete with cell phone contact app, and promise that "if you leave now, you can come back legally some time later on," seem to be pretty pathetic efforts, if you ask me, to try and get some success out of what has been a major publicity flop. Now it's blaming the Democrats for the shutdown, on the screens in airports where their system, the one the GOP runs, is causing massive delays.
And J. D. Vance has also broken the silence, whining, complaining, frustrated when reporters shut down his spin aand make him face the truth, looking very foolish and beaten. He tries to stick to the party line, and when confronted repeatedly with the truth, loses his composure, and gets humiliated by the interviewer. George Stephanopoulos is not exactly the most intellectually strong television interviewer, but he sure smacked Vance down when it came to Tom Homan. And boy did he fall right into the trap Chris Hayes laid for him. He's feeling the pressure, too.
What little bit of a bump they tried to get out of the Charlie Kirk assassination has gone away. Today's "No Kings" protests are sucking what little bit of gas was left right out of that balloon. The government shutdown is not turning people against Democrats, they are, in larger and larger numbers almost every day, blaming the GOP.
Well, why not? They're the ones in charge. Democrats don't have a majority in either house. It's stupid to think that people don't know this.
Then, there's the approaching midterm elections themselves. Of course the Republicans are scared spitless that they are going to lose at least the House, which would be the end of anything Trumper or MAGA. There are signs they believe they are going to lose the Senate as well. So they are exploring all possibilities and taking every step to try and stack the deck in their favor, including the open possibility of simply figuring out how to get the Supreme Court to help them disqualify enough votes to favor their candidates.
Their little scheme, starting in Texas, seems to have stalled out. There's no guarantee that redrawing districts in a state where Democratic voters are over the 45% threshold now, and may actually be in the majority, given Trump's shenanigans since January, will net more than a couple of the five seats they are hoping for, if that much. The last time they tried this, they barely flipped one seat. Other states poised to join them, Missouri, Indiana, Florida, haven't even reached the point of introducing the legislation yet.
Of course, the blue states who say they will counter this move if the GOP tries it in Texas can flip about an equal number of seats, according to the data from the 2024 election. So there's that. But the fact they are doing this is evidence these rallies indicate to GOP political leadership that they are going to lose. And that's one reason they are successful and should continue.
So Keep Them Up
I have hopes that as the level of frustration about Trump's attempts to make himself a dictator keeps ramping up, protests and marches will become more directly focused, and will start to have an effect on a lot of Republican politicians who want to keep their seats but see their chances of doing so slip away. The polling data on Trump, on the average, is -16. How much of that will jump over and have an effect on individual Republicans will translate into the number of house seats the Democrats will gain in 2026, and right now, some are saying that's looking like 30 to 35 seats.
Some GOP members of the house, and a few in the senate, have been squeezed pretty hard by this. They aren't reliable or predictable, but keeping the pressure up at least takes them out of some of the more extremist activity.
Then There's Epstein
No one is expecting to be surprised by what comes out of the Epstein files. That's because the efforts made by Trump's defenders and apologists, and by Trump himself, have given away the contents. It's just a matter of time. Then we are going to see whether this country is really nothing more than a morally degenerate mob, or whether we still have a sense of decency and morality when it comes to protecting our children. I don't expect Trumpers and the MAGA crowd to understand that this is an issue which separates moral, decent Americans from their despicable selves, but there will be a lot of Americans who do see it for what it is.
I struggle with the thought of giving something like that the kind of attention it will get at these protests, but then, people need to know the truth.
So, enjoy another march and protest. Get your bunion pads out, and wear a good pair of sturdy shoes.
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