The fact of the matter is that if his name had been on the ballot, the results of last night's off year elections would have very likely been much worse for Republicans than they were.
The very early tweets in the evening, when it became pretty obvious shortly after 8 p.m. Eastern time that there wasn't an election happening on November 4th that was going to go the way of any Republican, were as predictable as snowfall in Chicago in the winter. Trump's fragile ego fractured before 20% of the votes had been tabulated in the New York City mayor's race, where he invested most of his personal influence and the lies poured forth.
It's a political pattern we have seen every time Trump has inserted himself into politics. He won a quirky, and perhaps rigged Presidential election in 2016, and within two or three months of being in office, his gross negligence, personal ignorance, ego-driven policy and general incompetence cost the GOP all the way down the road until he was beaten by Biden in 2020. And then, as practical and legal inaction on the part of the Justice department kept the door open for the indicted criminal to run again, the same thing happened. He wins a very narrow election victory, highly questionable given the number of reports of possible rigging and cheating, and then the Republicans start on another downhill slide to the next election threshold.
Everything about yesterday's election indicates that the biggest factor in every Republican loss--and in almost every case they weren't just "losses," they were total bomb-outs--was the ever present essence of Trump's influence, from open endorsements to his putting in an awful lot of time and energy himself in support of Republican candidates, especially his endorsees, not one of whom came close to winning. There is absolutely no question in the analysis we have seen up to this point. Trump was the biggest reason Republicans were beaten into the ground yesterday.
Yes, the Shutdown Was a Factor
One of the clues as to just how badly Trump is taking this loss is that he actually agreed with the pollster's conclusion that the shutdown has had a monstrously bad effect on the Republicans. No question about the veracity of that statement, even though few of the election results reach inside Congress. The blame for the shutdown has fallen squarely and heavily on the Republicans. People are not as stupid as Trump and Mike Johnson think they are.
I'll take bets that we see moves this week to get it back up and running, after Tuesday's complete and total wipeout of the GOP.
But much of the blame for the shutdown also falls on Trump, and the voters made that pretty clear.
I Don't Understand the Memory Lapses of the Electorate
Trump is simply an incompetent boob when it comes to his political career. He doesn't have the intelligence, competence, energy or will to do the job, he's a pathological liar who has no grasp of reality and therefore the decisions he makes are based on fallacies, not facts. He hasn't had a single success in anything he's done since he's been President, everything he touches fails, or he backs down and changes his mind. "Taco Trump" isn't just a bad nickname, it's the way he operates. He's a big mouth with nothing to back it up.
And the GOP suffers as a result.
The opposition that has been building, noticeably massive, poured out yesterday and showed itself in turnouts that were not predicted or expected, and results that reached right inside the White House, or what's left of it. Even the relatively small scope of this election was a massive failure for the GOP and they lost is badly.
Where the Alarm Bells Should Be Ringing the Loudest
Three Democrats were returned to their seats on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court yesterday, preserving the Democratic majority, but also winning big, against some of the most well financed opposition in the history of Pennsylvania judicial elections. More than either governor's race yesterday, or the mayor's race in New York City, MAGA and Trump invested heavily in their attempt to get rid of the Democrats on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. This was, after all, a state Trump won, though barely, and questionably, in 2024. But the margins in favor of the Democrats in those races sure didn't look like a swing state. Exceeding 20 points in each case, "Blue Tsunami" isn't a forceful enough word for that Republican defeat.
Democrats have rarely seen the kind of turnout in an off year election that they got yesterday.
Warning: The Corrupt and Lawbreaking GOP WILL cheat and try to Steal the 2026 Midterms
Eyes need to be opened, people. The Republicans are not honest. They are completely corrupted by Trump. And they are going to try and steal an election they are increasingly seeing as one they are not only going to lose, but lose big. We got caught off guard in 2024, and they stole that one from us because we had painted outselves into a corner we couldn't defend.
We KNOW this is going to happen. It's their M. O. It's part of the way they operate. So what are we going to do to stop it?
Trump will also be on that ballot, whether his name is there or not. He must now be the most unpopular man in the history of the American Presidency and every bad move he makes dooms Republicans to an election loss. We've got to keep that moving in the right direction.
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