"Blue Tsunami" is the Correct Term to Describe How the Mid-Term Elections Seem to be Shaping Up

Watching political poll numbers in the United States can be a full time occupation.  There are now a plethora of polls, covering every possible angle and opinion in politics.  It's still true that it takes four or five different polling averages on the same question to get a solid read on public opinion but there is now enough data being recorded to the point where it is possible to determine, down to the precinct level--almost--how an election is going to turn out.  

There is a lot of polling data out there on this coming mid-term election at every level.  Taken as a whole, the predicted result is that the Democratic party is very likely to gain control of the House, and less likely to gain control of the senate.  That's because polls are still based on the outcomes and turnouts of the 2024 election which are used as part of the way raw data is factored.  Predictions take into consideration how voters cast their ballots previously, and then factor in things like the typical lower turnout in a mid-term, and how shifts and swings in previous elections have gone to determine their guess.  

What seems to be happening in the current set of polling data is that information being gathered and sorted isn't always matching up with the level of voter enthusiasm for a particular candidate, or the actual outcome of the election.  The primaries have been particularly difficult to pick with some surprise results going well outside the margin of error of the polling data.  Angie Nixon's win over Alexander Vindman in Florida was, perhaps, the biggest shock.  Not only did he outspend her 20 to 1, she focused on progressive issues normally not a popular position to take in Florida, and had endorsements from the far left wing of the party.  But she focused on the issues that the polling data shows are big in people's minds, namely affordability, health care, housing and food assistance, and she pulled some publicity stunts which got a lot of media attention.  

She won big.  And she is the favorite in the general election.  

Her win mirrors other similar victories for candidates from the left side of the Democratic party who have, for the most part, been at the forefront of the "No Kings!" rallies, marches and protests.  This is a very large and very active and enthusiastic group of potential voters who are committing to turning out at the polls, and following through.  Their presence, which is starting to show up in polling data everywhere, is going to be a major influence in which Democrats get into which office.  And it is a big factor, not only in the fact that Democrats are favored to win control of the House, but in getting enough voters to the polls everywhere to also gain a Senate majority for the party.  

It's Looking More and More Like Democrats Will Take Control of the Senate

As things have turned out, the "most vulnerable Democrat" in the Senate seems to be becoming the most likely Democrat to get re-elected.  Jon Ossoff is running away with his race in Georgia, which Republicans once thought of as the best place to flip a seat.  That possibility has travelled north to Michigan, where Gary Peters is stepping down, but following their late-in-the-season, highly contested primary, as that race shapes up, Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee, is edging out Mike Rogers, the MAGA backed candidate.  It looks to be close, but it is interesting to note that since the primary, El-Sayed's support is inching forward, while Rogers is slowly losing points.  

As far as potential flips go, no one could have predicted that Texas and Iowa would be Senate battlegrounds with Republicans clinging on for dear life to try and hold seats.  James Talarico, the Democratic nominee in Texas, has held a slight one to two percentage point lead ever since he won the nomination, in spite of polling stalwarts like Cook Political not changing their factoring based on previous outcomes.  And as more recent polling data piles up, we are now seeing several polls where Talarico is crossing the 50% threshold, which is a milestone in a race as close, and as ugly, as this one.  

Trump unpopularity is definitely a factor in this one, while Paxton carries baggage of his own, including a highly publicized affair and divorce.  The liberal religious perspective of Talarico, who is a United Presbyterian clergyman, has been used to attack him, even though the religious points have nothing to do with the issues.  But even that seems to favor Talarico, who responds by simply asserting his beliefs, not by backing down.  

In fact, over the past couple of weeks, it is starting to look like the Democrats may actually flip all of the Republican seats where they were considered legitimate challengers, including Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Alaska, North Carolina and Michigan.  Mary Peltola, the Democratic party nominee in Alaska, won a straight up primary against her Republican opponent a couple of weeks ago, causing many pollsters to name Alaska as the Democratic tipping point.  North Carolina looks like a sure thing for Roy Cooper, and Maine is starting to look that way as well.  Sherrod Brown is pulling ahead in Ohio.  

It might be a bold prediction, but I think Democrats may actually take all seven of those states, and get control of the Senate.  As we get closer to the election, the vast majority of polling data coming in reflects mostly declining numbers, especially for MAGA Republicans, and growing support for Democrats.  

Trump-Instigated Redistricting Has Lost It's Punch

The gains that Republicans hoped to make in states where they redrew district lines last spring have faded and dissipated in the most recent polling data.  Hoping to save up to as many as 17 seats, not enough to stop a Democratic majority from winning, but enough to mute the overall effect of a blue tsunami, the redistricting Republicans tried in several states has fallen kind of flat.  I've seen three recent polls, including an Emerson, which indicate the possibility that Republicans may not actually win any of those seats.  Well, the drop in support and approval of Trump has been staggering and none of the districts they redrew gave them a significant enough majority to overcome a 10 point drop in support.  And the drop for most MAGA candidates across the board has been about 14%.  

So it does indeed look like we are going to see an even more overwhelming blue tsunami than we did in 2018.  History does have a tendency to repeat itself, and it seems that we needed a reminder of just how bad Trump has been as President, and how bad Republican leadership has failed, to get to this point.  All that corporate money has been matched on the Democratic side by individual contributions, in spite of some whining and complaining.  And the advantage Progressive Democrats are giving the party is a clear and concise message that is well delivered.  That goes a lot further than slick advertising does.

This wave will surprise most of the pundits.

Some Bold Speculation About the Coming Blue Tsunami 

240.  

Keep your eyes on that number, because I think that's how many Democrats will find themselves elected to the House after November.  That's ten more than the pollsters are cautiously predicting now, using their 2024 voter data.  But it looks like the progressive side of the Democratic party is going to produce the most enthusiastic voters this time around, along with the almost 70% of independents who are fed up with Trump.  So I think that's going to be bigger than the pundits and pollsters are predicting.  

I am also going out on a limb and saying that the seven current GOP held seats that are considered the challenges--Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, North Carolina, Alaska and Iowa, will all fall to the Democratic party.  That's how it's trending now, and I think it will be a close, but firm win for the Democrats come November, when things "tighten up."  And I think there might be a "pick one off" among what the GOP has left.  Darlene Graham was just nominated by the South Carolina GOP, and I think that's not going to turn out too well.  She's even more loony toons than her brother was, and that can be an appeal in a state like South Carolina, but I think there's going to be enough of a fall off in support to allow a Democrat to slip in.  

I also wish the Democrats had taken a closer look at West Virginia, and put some money behind Rachel Fetty Anderson. They might have made their "do nothing for decades" Senator Shelly Moore Capito get out and try and run on a record of having done nothing for the people of West Virginia for 12 years in the Senate.  I'm not sure they could have won the seat, but the Republicans there weren't all that excited about Capito this time around.  No wonder.  The sheet listing her accomplishments and benefits for her state as a senator is blank.  

I'm usually pretty good at this.  I underestimated the Democrats in 2018, and overestimated Trump.  Everything this guy touches eventually rusts and crumbles, including his political support.  And I think the second term, for Republicans, will be a disaster that will be hard from which to recover.