This Week in Politics: Polls, an Off-Year Election, and the GOP Doubles Down on Losing Strategy

As late as Thursday evening, on Alex Wagner's MSNBC time, conversation was still focusing on the New York Times-Siena College, CBS and CNN polls that came out over the previous weekend, suggesting, from however they decided to factor the data they collected, that Donald Trump might have a slight lead over Joe Biden in five of six battleground states.  Several other polls from that same period of time came up with a different conclusion from their factoring of the data, including one from a marketing and law firm in Arizona that suggested Biden might be ahead by as much as 10 points in that state, but the media, almost all of them, seemed determined to create a laser focus on these three polls.  

I'll give credit where credit is due.  Jen Psaki and Nicole Wallace, both of MSNBC, both with experience working inside a Presidential administration on, among other things, diseminating information from polling data, pointed out inconsistencies and flaws in the data that was reported, and noted that these polls in particular, especially the Times-Siena, have had a poor record of accuracy with their numbers this far ahead of an election.  Good for them, and for whoever was listening.  

Apparently, the Biden Administration was also annoyed by the incessant nattering of negativity, and issued their own statement, pointing out that the coverage seemed one sided, since the data wasn't conclusive.  But the fascination with these polls, and somehow getting some kind of jump on everyone else's reporting, led to some embarassing moments for those who kept harping on them. 

An Election is Actual Voter Data, but a Poll is Only Speculation  

Tuesday night rolled around, and some news outlets had been bold enough to cast doubt over potential election results in Virginia, Kentucky and Ohio, as a result of the data from these polls, hinting that a poor showing by Democrats would be a bad omen for Biden's campaign.  Conversely, if that were the case, it seems that a good night for Democrats would be good news for the strength of Biden's campaign, and of his position, since he is the undisputed leader of the Democratic party right now and that would be an accurate statement.  Only a couple of commentators, MSNBC again, seemed willing to take that step.  

Solid wins for Democrats materialized very early in the evening.  Before Lawrence O'Donnell had the opportunity to come on at 9:00 p.m. central time and do an excellent job of demonstrating how these wins were indicators of the strength of Biden's administration and its achievements, the results had already conformed it.  Even in Mississippi, where the Democratic candidate for governor lost, the vote totals he secured, compared to the previous Presidential races, were an impressive display of Democratic party advances and strength.  

So much for the polls, right?  Well, no.  A smashing humiliation of the Republican party aside, news commentators, who apparently didn't plan very well ahead, and didn't anticipate the impact of those election results, turned back for another go at the polls.  Alex Wagner even gave some time to trying to draw comparisons and contrasts between the data from the polls and the results of the election and left a lot of conclusions hanging, including the most obvious one, that these polls are outliers.   

A Real Conclusion

I'm only a journalism minor, and an amateur.  My observations don't follow the dictates of a commercial news outlet's sense of direction.  What I've noticed is that since Joe Biden won the Presidency in 2020, and the Democrats took full control of Congress at the same time, the Republicans have had some of the toughest election battles in, literally decades.  There are few bright spots that they can point to and say, "here's a sign we're on the rebound."  They eked out a narrow majority in the house, flipping fewer seats than the minority party has achieved in mid-term elections going back to even before the Reagan Adminisration.  And it isn't improving, it's getting worse, and eating into their majorities in states that have long been red.  

What can I conclude about this week?  The election results do not match the media's evaluation of the position of the Biden administration and his candidacy for President.  

Some pollsters probably need to revamp and re-evaluate their factoring methods, and their gathering of data.  Some news commentators and news outlets need to spend some time changing their narrative.  

The Republican Party needs to figure out what went wrong and make adjustments.  And that should leave us all rolling on the floor, laughing.  

Doubling Down on a Losing Agenda

It didn't take the GOP very long to go right back to the mess that cost them dearly in 2020, and again in 2022, and now in 2023.  One day.  On Wednesday, the Republican candidates for President, sans the alleged front-runner, doubled down on themes that voters have repeatedly told them, with their ballots, will not win elections.  Not only that, but voters also told them, through a series of local elections, that their attempts to suppress votes and subvert the will of the people will not be tolerated either.  

The Republican party is losing for several very clear reasons.  One, it is still dominated by Trump, and as long as that is the case, it will not win elections, no matter what the polls say.  The extremism, while appearing to have a following among hard core Trumpie supporters, doesn't appeal to anyone who isn't a hard core Trumpie, and that's a clear majority of the population and the electorate.  So no matter what the "factoring" issues might be, to get numbers to move in a particular direction, it is pretty obvious that a clear majority of those who go to the polls will not support anything associated with the Trump brand.  

At the ballot box, by the way, that involves the vast majority of Democrats, somewhere around 65% of Independent voters, and about 10% of Republicans.  Stick that in your poll data and smoke it 

The biggest mistake the current dysfunctional Supreme Court ever made was to wade into politics and overturn Roe v. Wade.  Regardless of which side of the issue one takes, messing with settled law, that has been established for 50 years, is not a good political move.  It has not achieved the purpose those conservatives who have advocated for its overturning envisioned, and it now, very clearly, will not achieve that goal.  I have little doubt that if the issue appeared on the ballot as an initiative in Florida or Texas, voters would put the right to choose right back into the law.  

And we haven't even come to the issue of the economy.  Yes, the Biden administration is having quite a time dealing with inflation, and perceptions of an economy that isn't working.  But inflation doesn't happen in a functioning economy, it's a symptom of prosperity and growth.  That's why raising interest rates, which slows the economy down, is one solution to slowing the inflation rate.  The Biden adminstration has succeeded in doing that, by the way, precariously but it's working.  

What is it that the Republicans have proposed to deal with the problem?  That is, if they have time and can get to it between their frivilous time wasting in Congress right now.  I haven't heard anything yet, so post a comment and let me know if they ever come up with something productive and useful.  Right now, they're mired in pointless minutia. 

Another Loser Joins the Presidential Race

And what a perfect week it was for Jill Stein to decide that she will accept the Green Party's nomination for President once again.  If there's a candidacy with less direction and purpose than Donald Trump's, it would be this one.  

The Green Party has some good ideas, but has no idea at all how to implement them.  It seems they exist for "getting their ideas out there," but fall very short of even that goal, much less actually achieving something.   Stein successfully helped Trump win the White House in 2016 by syphoning off enough votes that could have gone to Hillary Clinton in the three states she needed to win.  Now in all fairness, it's not a foregone conclusion that Green party voters would have picked Clinton.  Stein's fascination with and closeness to Putin casts some suspicion on her motives and those who are aware of this aren't likely to support a Democrat.  But what is clear is that a Clinton presidency would have been far more sympathetic to, and far more willing to listen to Green party issues, than Trump would be, and that makes them pretty darn stupid for running a candidate of their own.  

From Trump, the Green Party gets contempt and less than nothing, and so nominating Stein again is a demonstration of bithering ignorance and stupidity.  Albert Einstein said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.  Jill Stein will run again, will get fewer votes this time than she got last time, a prediction you can take to the bank without a single poll to support it, and she will lose again.  That's insane.  A vote for her is a vote for Trump and that theme needs to be at the core of the Democratic party's political campaign in 2024.  

And We Move Forward with Optimism

For Democrats, it was a great week.  It's time, as Paul Waldman of the Washington Post said on Wednesday, for Democrats to start trusting the courage of their convictions, and show some confidence in their strength.  For all of the hoopla surrounding Trump, and the media's fascination with how it is that people think that's something of value, the Democrats have had the most success against Republicans in politics since Trump has co-opted the party's politics.  

Is Media Suppression of Biden Achievements, and their "Doom and Gloom" Prognostications Deliberate?

We keep hearing about how terrible things are for Democrats: how they've alienated working class whites, how President Joe Biden is destined to lose and how they can't do anything right.  Yet in election after election, Democrats rack up victory after victory.  If they keep winning, it might just get even the most fainthearted Democrats to finally trust the courage of their convictions. --Paul Waldman, Author and Commentator for the Washington Post, MSNBC, November 8, 2023

Here's the full article, Virginia Just Showed Democrats the Way to Win

All day Tuesday, I had to avoid the temptation to click on news sites just to see if anyone had any predictions, news, or insights as to how key elections were going in the states that got a lot of publicity.  American politics is quite predictable, and in spite of polling data that is not very consistent, and reflects an "all over the place" kind of feeling, at least until election day, and accountability, draws close.  After the weekend news about the poll results that came out, I was anxious about what might transpire in the elections that Democrats were pointing to as indicators of where things are headed in 2024, and not wanting to engage with Republicans who would be gloating over wins.  

Jen Psaki and Nicole Wallace helped relieve a little of the tension I was feeling about the polls, by pointing out, among other things, similar polling data from a year prior to the mid-term elections during which, specifically, CNN and the New York Times polls used the phrase "red wave" that some Republican politicians were gloating about.  Psaki also had some insights with regards as to how the White House would take the information, and what they would be doing with it, and was clear that it really had no bearing, at this point, on real election results.  Wallace more or less said the same things, from her own experience in the Bush administration, noting that information about voter preferences goes far deeper than what any single poll that gets reported on television has to say.  

But whatever anxiety I might have had, it was relieved very quickly by yesterday's election results. 

A Great Night's Sleep

Long before bedtime, it became apparent that the news about the weekend polls would be covered up and largely discredited by some whopping Democratic party election wins.  Pollsters, and the news media, had cast a shadow of doubt over this off-year election, at least as far as Democrats are concerned, and made an effort to associate what they are claiming is the Biden Administration's unpopularity with potential Republican victories in key elections.  

In spite of their attempts, nothing resembling the gloom and doom they tried to spread over the weekend showed up in those election results.  In Kentucky and Ohio, red states in the last several elections, Democrats won big. I was concerned, again mainly from news reporting, that Virginia might not deliver.  And I wasn't expecting much from Mississippi, where we got better news than one might think in a Democratic candidate's loss.  

It was all over well before Lawrence O'Donnell came on at nine.  I slept soundly. 

Even Mississippi, where the Democratic candidate for governor, Brandon Presley, lost to Tate Reeves, there was good news.  Reeves barely won in a state Trump won by 12 points in 2020, and where hard line conservative, Evangelical whites are a dominant constituency.  It turns out that it wasn't as much of a long shot as some people thought, and it shows that Democrats can activate their constituents and get them to the polls. 

Everywhere else, it was just an overwhelming victory for Democrats and issues that the party and its candidates support, in mostly red territory.  Coupled with the Democratic victory this past summer that elected Janet Protasiewicz to Wisconsin's Supreme Court, a host of other special elections, the mid-terms in 2022, and the Presidential election in 2020, election results in favor of Democrats are dominant.  And that calls any polling data that doesn't match up with what's happening in the ballot box into question. 

Controlling the Narrative and Getting the Message Out

Joe Biden's predecessor gets far more media attention than he does.  He's the single most accomplished President in the White House going back to Lyndon Johnson, or at least to Barack Obama, but you'd never know it from news coverage.  When there is coverage, it's critical, it involves the question of his age, or it is bad news in the polls about his job approval, and it rarely focuses on the benefits of his legislative achievements as President.  After Tuesday, that almost looks deliberate.  

Tuesday was great news for Biden and for his chances of being re-elected.  Democrats won on the issues and they won with candidates who articulate their position strongly and clearly.  There's not any other message that can come from those results, except that Ohio is definitely in play and its electoral votes on Biden's behalf is not wishful speculation, but a very real possibility.  It's pretty clear that some media outlets were preparing to tie any Democratic failures directly to Biden.  After the fact, there are few of them who are tying Tuesday's success to Biden.  They don't like him and they're not cutting him any slack.  

It appears what people do in the voting booth isn't what they're telling pollsters they're going to do.  It also appears that when certain news media sources want to make a critical point about the President, they'll go looking for proof after they've drawn their conclusions.  Most of the mainstream media, it appears, wants to see the Democrats nominate someone other than Biden.  Public opinion can be manipulated, when news reporting becomes propaganda, and I have to wonder, out loud, whether that's not what's happening here.  

The reports regarding the New York Times-Sienna College poll, CNN and CBS news that came out last weekend actually got a rather terse response from the Biden Administration, which pointed to several other polls, six or seven altogether, that showed Biden with a lead, in most cases outside the margin of error.  There's an answer to a question in that response that I'd like to hear from the media:  Why cherry pick polls that have Trump in the lead instead of reporting that this is very early, and for various reasons, polls are all over the place.  Psaki and Wallace, from their experience inside Presidential administrations, were able to point out the flaws and inaccuracies in the details, so why couldn't other news sources do the same?  That's why I think this is starting to look deliberate.  

Democrats:  Trust the Courage of Your Convictions! 

Of all of the Democrats who ran for President in 2020, Joe Biden is the most representative of the party's values.  He's had the experience of making, and learning from, mistakes, of having to adjust personal feelings and preferences to serve the constituency, and is still enough of the old-fashioned politician to believe that negotiation and compromise is essential to effective government.  Anyone who thinks he's too old is not paying attention.  I can't think of a better image of this President than the walk he took with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy from the government buildings through the streets of Kyiv, after a ten hour train ride in a war zone.  Without hesitation, he flew to Israel for direct talks with Netanyahu after the Hamas attack.  Age is not an issue with Joe Biden.  

Even if it was, any worries about a transition have been dispelled by the competence of Vice President Harris.  This country is in good hands.  

I'd be willing to invest some cash on a bet that if the Presidential election had been held this past Tuesday, Joe Biden would have easily won a landslide on issues that are based on the convictions of the Democratic party.  And that's my emphasis, in agreement with Waldman's opinion piece.  If a Democrat can win re-election as governor of Kentucky, that tells me that a Democrat can carry the state and get its electoral votes.  Since it's one of the first states to be called on election night, it would be nice to see the shock waves that would be caused if its squiggly little shape was colored blue.  

As a party, it seems we still have issues with control of the narrative.  If this is a deliberate attempt by the media to smear the President and try to bring about some kind of change of candidate, then the DNC needs to confront that, and the Biden campaign, which has already responded, needs to figure out a way to get on top of it.  

I'm tremendously disappointed in the manner in which the justice system in this country is working, with regard to a former President who tried to subvert the Constitution, steal and election and stay in office after the will of the people voted him out.  I'm disappointed that we had enough people in the electorate who either couldn't see through his phony image, or wanted something that destructive in the presidency to vote for him and put him in office in the first place.  But this hasn't worked the way it should have, from the very beginning, and it remains to be seen if convictions can stop it before the Republican party destroys itself with another candidacy.  

Nevertheless, I think President Biden is the best choice for President, and I think he will win re-election, especially if the indicted, failed ex-president is the Republican nominee, because Biden is a Democrat who trusts the courage of his convictions.  

Some Initiative can end this Tragedy

It's not anti-Semitic to be opposed to further bombing of Gaza.  We've had more than enough bloodshed and violence.  It is time for both sides to stop.  

The Hamas attack on Israel was inexcusable terrorism, and everyone associated with it needs to be brought to justice.  However that is achieved, it should not be at the expense of what looks like a vengeful attack against civilians, just because they're not big supporters of Israel's right to exist.  Gaza is a relatively small area, and bombing civilian housing, hospitals, schools and places of worship is not acceptable practice for any reason. It was certainly not acceptable when Hamas crossed the border into Israel and perpetrated an act of terrorism against the Israelis in the various kibbutzim in its southern district.  It should not be acceptable going the other direction, either.  This has gone on long enough.  

Former President Obama gave a pretty good rundown of the historical circumstances that have been responsible for the violence and bloodshed that has taken place, basically since the region transferred from the imperial rule of the Ottoman Turks to the imperial rule of the British empire in 1917.  

"No one is blameless," was the key statement he made, among other comments from wisdom and experienced gained from eight years as President of the United States.  

Could We Not Have Known? 

There's no going back from here, that's obvious.  Whoever thought that it would be a good idea to open Palestine to almost unlimited Jewish immigration wasn't paying attention to the circumstances, or they thought that this could somehow be controlled in the way that things are always controlled by imperial power, by force.  The Arab Palestinians have more or less been treated the same way native Americans were treated over the course of our history, as inferior people predestined by God to be in the way of a favored, chosen people, worth less because of their ethnicity, color of skin, and culture, including religion.  

Ironically, for the most part, the Jewish population isn't monolithic in their feelings about this issue, and their own past experiences, especially those who are descendants of Holocaust survivors, don't always like the approach to this.  There's a wide variance of opinion among the Jewish population of Israel, including many who are willing to take the steps necessesary to bring about security and peace.  Some of that comes from religious tradition, though most Jewish people in Israel aren't necessarily religious.  A lot of it is from their own past experiences with anti-Semitism.  I like the optimism of those who, in the face of terrorism, think that a peaceful solution is possible.  

There are those among the Evangelical Christian community who go so far as to use modern day eschatology, from a futurist perspective, to justify their support for the violence and war that takes place in the middle east.  Taking prophetic portions of the Bible completely out of context, putting them in a modern historical setting for which they were not written and not meant to address, they've used this false prophecy to justify the dispossession of Arabs in Palestine from the homes and land their ancestors have lived on for 2,000 years.  That stands against every principle of the Christian gospel.  It is antichrist.

Any form of interpretation of Christianity that involves violence to achieve God's perceived will is heretical and anti-Christian.  And futurist eschatology falls in that category.  Jesus himself placed the context for interpretation of all the prophecy and law in the Old Testament and under the old covenant when he declared that he was the fulfillment of all of it, law and prophets, and that not one jot or tittle of it would pass away until all is accomplished.  His resurrection was the accomplishment of it, and the symbol of the old covenant, the Temple in Jerusalem, was levelled in 70 A.D. by the Romans.  

But, here we are, with the resources of the western World War 2 allies basically devoted to establishment of a Jewish political state in the middle east, on land occupied by Arabs whose ancestry also entitles them to the land, under the Abrahamic covenant.  Steps cannot be retraced, and the solution to the problem, which was to put the Palestinian population into small strips of land on the West Bank and in Gaza, has only created Palestinian misery, and a big security problem for Israel.  Like Bernie Sanders, and Santita Jackson, I believe Israel's security is married to justice for the Palestinians.  

That the resources and intelligence of two of the world's great powers--and the British should still be held accountable for creating this in the first place--cannot come up with a resolution, along with the leaders of the Palestinian people, not the terrorists, is not a reasonable expectation.  We can, and we must, find a workable solution acceptable as just to the Arabic Palestinians, and secure to the Jewish population of Israel.  

It's a key point of Christianity, a timeless principle without exception.  "Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called the Children of God."  Jesus Christ, recorded in Matthew 5:9.  So where are the politicians who claim that the Bible is their worldview?

We Can't Repeat Historical Mistakes

Hamas perpetrated terrorism, using Gaza as an operational base.  No doubt, there are many Palestinians in Gaza who see Hamas sympathetically, as a result of their own oppression.  That doesn't excuse the terrorist tactics.  Terrorism is a contributing factor to the problems and it must be brought to full and complete justice.  That's the first step toward resolution of this problem.  

There is no going back.  So, for the sake of peace, something we claim to value along with the sanctity of human life, there must be a reasonable way to stop these senseless attacks on Israel and on the Palestinians, and make peace.  Terrorism must be outlawed and brought to justice, and neutralized by taking away the conditions that have perpetuated it and led it to be welcomed as an ally and a rescue operation.  The rest of the world must be brought to an understanding of this.  

This will take a long, long time.  In the meantime, someone must broker a cease-fire and use the means available to preserve the peace.  The United States has that kind of power.  It is time to use it to save lives.  

A Word from one of the Christian Apostles

I'm just going to end with this.  These words, from the early church apostle, John, representing the core value of the Christian faith, may provide some hope and comfort, if properly applied. 

God is love and those who abide in love abide in God and God abides in them.  Love has been perfected among us in this: that we may have boldness on the day of judgment, because as he is, so are we in this world.  There is no fear in love, but perfect love casts out fear; for fear has to do with punishment and whoever fears has not reached perfection in love.  We love because he first loved us.  Those who say, "I love God," and hate their brothers and sisters are liars; for those who do not love a brother or sister, whom they have seen, cannot love God whom they have not seen.  

The commandment we have from him is this:  those who love God must love their brothers and sisters also.  

Hatred is evil.  

 

Follow-up on the Weekend Polling Data: No Hand-Wringing Here, Just Caution

In yesterday's post, Weekend Polls are a Wake-Up Call for Democrats, the Signal Press acknowledged the inaccuracy of early polling data, compared with the prior record of pollsters.  It's a year away, all of the polls are within their margins of error, and it is too early to start wringing hands and conceding elections that are a long way off.  

But, given Trump's record, the prosecutions, his post-election behavior and his open attempts to steal a legitimate, fair election, combined with his continued harping about it as the only theme he has for a campaign for re-election, I think we should be disturbed by the fact that Biden is not 20 percentage points ahead at this point, and running away with it.  That is concerning, considering that the President has been among the most successful and accomplished in several decades, and Trump has been the most corrupt.  

I have confidence that the Biden campaign staff, the President himself, and the Democratic party, are looking at all of this, analyzing it and figuring out how to approach the data they consider credible.  Personally,  I will do everything I can do, from blogging and promoting the blog, to engaging on social media, to talking to people, to making phone calls, knocking on doors and committing a percentage of my income to campaign donations, to make sure that Biden gets a second term, and the Democrats get control of of both houses.  We can't let up and we have to make the right choices.  There's too much at stake. 

Part of that process means taking a look at what is happening, being realistic about it, and changing what needs to be changed.  

Perception can be Deceiving

Trying to figure out why the prosecutions and information about Trump's corruption, and there's a mountain of damning evidence, doesn't seem to contribute to peeling off any of his core support can be frustrating.  But it's pretty simple.  They see this as political revenge for his winning in 2016 and as an attempt to keep him off the ballot.  They've already looked past the fraud and corruption that is characteristic of his entire adult life and passed on all of that to make deals to get what they want in exchange for feeding his power hungry cravings.  The charges, upcoming trials and all of the information about his corruption have likely convinced everyone who see it for what it is.  

I've even heard some Democratic commentators say that maybe it is too much, and he should be let off the hook in order to focus more on defeating him based on his incompetence and inability to function as President.  I was horrified to hear this, which amounts to a complete abandonment of American justice.  I'm already disgusted with the games that have been played by this, the foot dragging and the slowness of the process that runs counter to effective justice.  But this is where we are.  And playing the persecuted victim of a witch hunt is among the things that he can actually do well.  

Covering up Everything in the News Cycle

Yesterday's post mentioned the fact that Joe Biden is very likely the first President in modern American history to serve three years in office and be in the complete shadow of his predecessor with regard to media coverage.  The fact that many conservatives consider the mainstream media controlled by far left wing liberals is a laughable joke.  They are controlled by commercial interests and money and dependent on ratings.  So the soap opera and drama surrounding this totally corrupt and worldly former President gets two thirds of the time devoted to political coverage on every major network, and it's a 24 hour a day rerun on the outlets controlled by far right wing extremist conservatives.  

This is where Democrats lose the ability to control the narrative.  Hard line conservatives aren't paying attention to mainstream media anyway, that's no longer the most effective way to carry a political message to the people.  And until Democrats figure out how to get control of this again, and reduce the Trump soap opera to its rightful place while getting the President double the face time, this will be a nagging problem.  It is one of the reasons I believe Trump is still considered a viable candidate. 

The Effect of Foreign Relations

Ukraine, and now Israel-Hamas, would be turning into unmitigated disasters for the United States, as well as for those involved, if Trump were President.  But both of them have been the victims of the propaganda war that Republicans are controlling.  The rally in Washington this weekend should also have been a huge wake-up call to Democrats, and to the President.  The irony of the situation is that the Republican Party and Donald Trump are the sworn enemies of every single protester who participated in that protest.  A Trump Presidency would be devastating to both the Americans in the protest, and to the people of Gaza and any hope Palestinians might have for reprieve.  

But there they are, and that's not a good look for unity within the Democratic party, nor for American idealism and humanitarianism.  And it has the potential to be explosive come election time. 

There is an Erosion of Support 

Biden has only temporarily been able to shake the effect of a job approval rating hovering in the low 40% range.  The consistency that is showing up in most polls is that his approval is sagging among constituencies that are more progressive and further left, but that are going to be essential to unite to win the election.  That would include younger voters, under 35, African Americans and Latinos.  He needs more than 58% of the Latino vote, 78% of the black vote and 65% of the younger vote, which is where those numbers run pretty consistently across the board now, in order to win.  

Trump has given working class Americans absolutely no reason at all to vote for him.  He won in 2016 on the strength of their vote, and then turned around and sold them out in the first year of his Presidency with a tax cut for the very rich, saddling most of the working class with tax increases, reduction in government benefits and dropping wages.  And they still supported him in 2020, out of a lack of awareness, and because Republicans controlled the narrative enough to shift the focus to conservative social issues.  

The temporary effect of the shock of overturning Roe v. Wade is wearing off.  It helped Democrats avoid a red wave during the mid-terms, and it has helped Democrats win the lion's share of elections since then.  But more is needed if the President is to be re-assured of his re-election.  And if this poll does nothing else, I hope that it gets the attention of every Democrat in the Biden White House and in his campaign and gets them working on building back a coalition that clearly needs shoring up.  

A Little Optimism Goes a Long Way

These are the kind of moments that turn things around.  The fact that everything going on around Trump should be giving Biden a 20 point lead means that the potential is still there for that to happen.  People need to find this out on their own terms.  Trump isn't gaining support, and his negative numbers don't get smaller.  But in the midst of inflation, expanding war and a lot of social confusion, the Democrats need to get their message out and demonstrate their commitment to democracy and to the people.  So here, in what's going on, is the motivation to get this moving, now.  

The Biden Campaign will apparently be very well funded and capable of a ground game, especially in battleground states, that are necessary to the electoral college win.  He's outraising Trump by a considerable amount, and right now, not spending it on a primary run.  That's how Obama won in 2012 over Romney, who had a five point lead in the polls and was in control of all of the "battleground" states in November of 2011.  

Inevitably, Trump will do or say something to alienate potential marginal voters.  With two major trials coming up in the spring, where the potential for sabotaging himself is unlimited, no doubt there will be a lot of votes lost by Trump as a result.  He can't help it.  

But I would like to see the Biden Administration, hard upon this news, become more pro-active in reaching out and resolving problems that are election sticking points.  That would give those of us who are big supporters a measure of much needed confidence right about now.  Trump has nothing to offer any of the constituencies where there is apparent erosion of support for Biden at the moment.  They're not turning to Trump, they're asking for another Democrat to be the candidate.  And the message I see in that is for Biden to become the other Democrat they're looking for.  

Weekend Polls are a Wake Up Call for Democrats

Gaps and errors in polling date are more commonplace as an increasing number of pollsters try to make room for themselves in a growing marketplace.  Hard upon the inaccuracies of polling data in both 2020 and 2022, that many pollsters either corrected after the fact, or saw a trend coming and made a quick adjustment just before an election and then afterward claimed accuracy, we have a set of polling data coming out this weekend that shows Biden trailing Trump in key battleground states  

I remain unconvinced that half of the voters in this country would really cast a ballot for Trump, after the shenanigans he pulled to try and overturn an election and stay in office when voters sent him packing.  I have a hard time seeing how segments of Democratic voters, most of whom fall to the left of center, and would be far worse off under a Trump administration, would stay home on election day, effectively letting Trump win and defeating everything they are fighting to establish.  I don't believe younger voters are as fickle as some of the pollsters make them out to be, and that they do not understand what is at stake.  Nor do I believe that African American and Latino voters are turning to a party that is increasingly more openly racist and specifically bigoted against their interests. 

A Major Shift in Public Opinion Doesn't Just Happen Overnight 

Trump didn't lead in any polls over Biden a month ago. Not one. Now, all of a sudden, in a couple of weekend polls, he's ahead by three points, and ahead in five of six battleground states where Democrats swept the mid-term elections except, ironically, the one that was actually the closest in the 2020 election and in the mid-terms. And Trump, with a disapproval rating of 57% to 63% in virtually every poll, is the choice of 51% of voters?  How does that happen?  

My personal speculation, and I'll make this clear, is that it doesn't happen.  Pollsters are collecting data on a daily basis, and getting raw numbers without any real context all the time.  They all have their "factors" that they use to calculate, "scientifically," of course, their polling data.  A year away from the election, they are safe reporting just about anything they want to report.  There's no election by which to measure their accuracy.  So they can claim a small "margin of error," but it doesn't really matter because they're a year away from accountability.  That's why the polls "tighten up" before an election.  

A lot of them got caught with their pants down, so to speak, following the mid-terms in 2022.  After the fact, they were claiming to be "within the margin of error."  But it turns out that there was evidence of a lot of phony data floating around that skewed the composites and caused them to have to make adjustments for it after the fact.  I read the narratives on three composite polling sites the night before the mid-terms, and while a lot of the language is vague and obfuscating, "the odds say," "it is a high probability that," "there's a possibility this could change," they all left the clear impression that we were going to see a red wave in Congress, and a Republican-controlled Senate.  But couched in terms so that they could come back a few days later and say that they didn't predict that at all.  Such is the nature of what we're looking at here.  

Fox News polling has consistently put Biden ahead of Trump in battleground states and across the board.  I believe their purpose in doing that is to frighten their viewers into making sure they go to the polls and vote.  And while it may seem cynical to assign the motive of manipulation to pollsters, almost all of whom are funded by one party or the other, or by television networks looking for ratings that boost revenue, I remain unconvinced that they are all just trying to report facts and let us decide.  

Democrats and the President Do Not Have Control of the Narrative 

When has it ever been the case that the sitting President of the United States has not received the majority of the time major news networks devote to political coverage?  Yet, that has been the case since the first day Joe Biden moved into the White House.  His predecessor has received the lion's share of news coverage in the time the media devotes to political reporting.  I haven't seen an analysis of it, but I'm willing to bet that Trump gets three times more minutes on a daily basis than Biden does.  And that puts Republicans in the spotlight more than Democrats.  

The candidacy of former Vice President Pence, who failed to attract a following of even 1% of GOP voters, gets more coverage than Vice President Kamala Harris, who has been actively engaging with voters.  In proportion to the time he gets in the media, Trump should be the clear front runner and ahead by 30 points.  That's exactly why he stays in the lead in the GOP field, the media doesn't talk about anyone else.  

So there's the first order of business for Democrats, and for those who are going to work for the President's re-election.  Get the media coverage the President deserves.  Surely, there are Democrats in positions of leadership who can figure out how to do this.  There aren't as many people who watch mainstream media any more, but still, if two thirds of the political coverage is going to a former president then some stragegy is needed to get that to change.  The President's achievements, and whatever else it takes to get in front of cameras and make news, should be high on the agenda now. 

When they shut the government down, Democrats need to control the news coverage and get ahead of the messaging, making sure Republicans, not Democrats or Biden, get the full blame.  That's the GOP goal, pretty clear from how direct they are about it, so will Democrats do anything to put the blame for that squarely where it belongs and work to make it stick?  Remember, these are the people who tried to blame Democrats for McCarthy's downfall and the inability to secure a speaker of the house for weeks.  When do they get pilloried for that?  They haven't been so far.  

What's the Alternative? 

Four years of a Trump Presidency would be a dictatorship of white supremacist Christian nationalism.  That's the only way to describe it.  The Constitution would be a worthless scrap of paper, as would be the individual rights of any American who was not white, rich and conservative.  Crime would be a matter of definition, and those who have committed crimes against humanity and against the Constitution would be in charge.  Convincing Americans this is where things were headed after Trump's first election, and where they would go if he ever gets back in the White House is the task at hand.  I hope there are people in the party who see this, are up for it, and are willing to make this an ongoing theme.  

All that Democrats identify as wrong with House Speaker Mike Johnson's ideology and approach to governing is exactly what we will get if Trump is elected.  

The strategy of the GOP following Trump's defeat was to figure out how to divide and conquer in order to win on the margins, using antiquated states' rights provisions and an outdated electoral college since they know they can't win elections at large.  They've done a fine job, getting Biden's age to the center of the divisiveness, turning the criminal proceedings against Trump into a political issue, rather than being about his crimes, and they've succeeded because they control the narrative, and they have media at their immediate disposal.  They are funding third-partiers, though up to this point, those they've found and are willing to help are fixated on Republican issues and would take more GOP voters away than Democrats.  

Case in point, RFK Junior has faded from coverage, once he decided to become independent.  He'd take more votes from the GOP and Trump than Democrats.  And all that "no-labels" talk about Manchin and Hunstman has also died down, at least for now, since they, too, would take more GOP voters.  

The alternative to a second Biden term is disaster for representative Democracy in America and for freedom and individual rights.  If these polls are even close to accurate, they signal a problem that we must begin to deal with right now.  This is a wake up call and we cannot waste any more time.  Public pressure needs to push for these trials to move forward and render verdicts.  But more than that, the pettiness and divisiveness that has crept in needs to stop, and we need to unite this country around a common enemy to its democracy and constitution.  Now is the time, Democrats, for all good men and women to come to the aid of their party.  

Israeli Security is Tied to Palestinian Justice

The credit for this statement can be given to several people who have been saying this for a long time.  I hear it from Santita Jackson, daughter of civil rights leader the Reverend Jesse Jackson, who points this out as something her father says frequently, and supports with Biblical principles that are part of the value system of the Christian gospel.  Last week, on her early morning talk show in Chicago, she had several guests, among them a professor from Ohio State University, who gave a crystal clear rundown of the history that led to the existence of the modern country of Israel. going back to its roots in British imperialism following the first world war.  

There are elements in the establishment of Israel that resemble most British imperialism.  Great Britain came to control the Middle East, from the Mediterranean to Iran, following the disastrous Treaty of Versailles that ended World War I.  It had been part of the Ottoman Empire, which sided with the Central Powers during the war against the interests of its enemy, Russia and the Czar.  To the victors go the spoils, and this oil and mineral rich territory, controlling trade routes between three continents, went to the British and French who then, in true imperialist fashion, proceeded to administer it in accordance with their own interests, and with little consideration of the interests of the inhabitants.  

The entire history of European imperialism, with the British Empire at the top of the list, is one of political upheaval for imperial interests, which includes treating native populations everywhere with a racism that brands them as uncivilized, uneducated and unworthy of any kind of life except one that works for the benefit of their "masters."  Much of the exploitation was done under the claim of "civilizing" the uncivilized and "Christianizing" the heathen.  It suited their interests to consider the growing Zionist movement among European Jews, with little to no consideration given to dispossessing the Arabic population of the region in order to facilitate the settlement of European Jews.  

That's a brief history of the region, not anywhere near doing it justice in terms of explaining all of the nuances of the wars, political maneuvers, outright destruction and the turning out of several million Palestinian Arabs from the homes and land their families and ancestors had occupied for two thousand years.  They had accepted the small Jewish community that already existed among them, and had generally accepted the small trickle of Jewish immigration that had occurred for centuries as Jews sought refuge from European pogroms aimed at keeping them segregated and limiting their economic influence.  But when this new development occurred, the only Arab leaders consulted were those who were backed by the financial benefits of being part of the empire.  

The Holocaust, of course, turned world attention, and sympathy, to Jewish survivors who decided to "return home" rather than continue to live in what appeared to be a very hostile, anti-Semitic environment in Europe.  Most westerners and Americans were completely ignorant of the fact that there had been no Jewish state in Palestine since the Hasmonean Dynasty fell around 37 B.C. and the events that transpired as a result of the establishment of the modern state of Israel, pushed and supported by world powers who had just won the Second World War, were the inevitable result.  Hence, the hostility and animosity of the surrounding Muslim populations toward Israel's presence.  They have a different perspective.  

Imperialism is difficult to resist, and impossible to undo.  The result of the powerlessness felt by those whose lives were discounted and disrespected in order to achieve the ends of foreign interests is that the oppressed eventually rise up and fight.  The last resort, when feelings of despair and futility blend with poverty and economic depravity is terrorism.  That's what we have seen in the development of militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, who only enjoy popular support because there appears to be no other way to get relief.  And as long as that futility, poverty and oppression exist, it will breed and produce terrorism that will always be a security threat to Israel.   

Bernie Sanders also puts this idea into understandable terms.  "For the sake of the Palestinian people, and for the people of Israel, we must create a process which ends the hatred, the cycle of violence, and allows all to live in peace and security," he said.  

There are some factors and influences in this that make finding any kind of solution an extremely difficult job.  

Christian Zionism

"Eschatology" is that part of Christian theology which deals with death, judgment, and the final destiny of the soul and of humankind.  Starting in the early 20th century, just before the First World War and the events leading to the emigration of European Jews to Palestine, a distinctive cluster of "end times" prophets began springing up, putting a futurist interpretation on the passages of the New Testament that they claim describe events leading to the second coming of Jesus Christ, and the end of the world.  Within this interpretation are various perspectives related to what I call an "Armageddon Calendar" which outlines specific events leading up to the second coming, including what some believe will be a disappearance of Christians from the earth known as the "rapture," and speculation about whether Jesus will come back before a seven year period known as "The Great Tribulation," in the middle of it, or after it is over.  

One of the key components of futurism, which is accepted by a majority of conservative Evangelicals, is that the political state of Israel, ruled over by Jews, within the historic boundaries of the tribal allocations of the Old Testament, must be in existence in order for the second coming to take place.  It must recognize Jerusalem as its capital, and there must be a restoration of the Jewish Temple at its original site.  

The problem with this view of eschatology, is that it is completely erroneous, contrary to even literal interpretations of the book of Revelation, from which most of it is drawn.  It ignores the author's clear contexts in setting the timetable for the prophecy in the book, and it ignores the words of Jesus himself, when it blends similar apocalyptically-worded passages from the Old Testament book of Daniel, incorrectly applying his prophetic words, which Jesus clearly says he fulfilled by his first coming, to the second coming and the end times of the world.  

What allows those who hold to this view to set aside the core values of the Christian gospel and lose their claim that all human life is sacred, and that all human beings are created by God in his image and are, therefore, the children of God, is a heresy known as "dispensationalism."  This compartmentalizes interpreting various parts of the book of Revelation, claiming that God put human history into specific periods with boundaries around them, known as "dispensations," and that the gospel of Jesus Christ is set aside in the last dispensation in order to bring about his second coming.  It provides justification for the destruction of the enemies of Israel, as being God's judgment.  So, in their mind, there's no need to consider the oppression of the Palestinians as anything but a necessity to usher in the return of Jesus.  

Not all Christians share that view of eschatology.  However, it does have an influence on American politics, with the United States being the primary world power supporting Israel, and that affects the ability to provide the kind of justice for Palestinians that would bring peace and security to Israel.  It's an influence on the root problem.  

No Justification for Terrorism

There's no justification whatsoever for the Hamas attack on Israeli civilians on October 7.  The attack achieved its purpose.  It created surprise, inflicted pain and suffering, it created a renewed sense of insecurity and fear across the whole country of Israel, and it got the attention of the world focused on Gaza.  Under Netanyahu, the planners expected a quick and violent retribution, missiles raining down on Gaza, and a military invasion at a high cost of civilian lives, and a hopeful turn of world opinion away from favoring Israel.  

It was an exhibition of complete evil through everything that it accomplished, including the brutal deaths of more than a thousand Israeli civilians, the capture of hostages for whatever purpose deemed necessary.  It was a demonstration of contempt for the people of Gaza, knowing the past history of such attacks, Hamas made absolutely no provision for the protection of the people, half of whom are children.  If they are the governing authority in Gaza, then their failure in all aspects of protection, provision and safety is as criminal as their attack on Israel.  They bear the responsibility for the killing of innocents on both sides.  

Hamas would have no base of operation, nor would Hezbollah, if there were, as Bernie Sanders says, a "process that would end the hatred, the cycle of violence, and allows all people to live in peace and harmony."  

So how does that happen?  

An Appeal to Higher Values 

"Violence is not the Answer," Says Group of Muslim Imams, Jewish Rabbis and Christian Pastors, Gathered Together

Earlier this week, Santita Jackson's early morning talk show featured an interview with a Jewish woman and a Palestinian Muslim man, both in Oregon, both part of a group that comes together for solidarity and encouragement.  Both were mourning the story of this man's family, many of them killed at once when a missile hit their home in Gaza.  That conversation exhibited a very high level of understanding on the part of both people, almost miraculous when the circumstances are considered.  

The group featured in the link above is in Oregon, too, not Israel or Gaza.  It's a long way away from the violence, physically, but there are connections there to people on both sides.  The fact that these people can exhibit that high level of understanding, come together, and have a civil discussion about what it will take to end the terror and violence is, in the political atmosphere we now live in, remarkable,  and if I may say so, miraculous.  

We have an imperial problem which cannot be undone.  So we must figure out how to live with it.  My responsibility, as an American, who doesn't experience the deprivation and despair of the Palestinians in Gaza or in the West Bank, and who doesn't experience the fear of an Israeli, is to support peace and contribute to security.  In the middle of this awful episode, there have been strong voices come out in favor, not of promoting things that lead to violence, but of promoting unity that neutralizes terror groups like Hamas and lets people live in peace.  If we're not willing to trust that's going to happen, instead of always believing the worst, then there is no hope for any of us.  

May the God of steadfastness and encouragement grant you to live in harmony with one another, in accordance with Jesus Christ, so that together with one voice you may glorify the God and Father of our Lord Jesus Christ.  Welcome one another, therefore, as Christ has welcomed you for the glory of God. May the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace.  Apostle Paul, Romans 15, various verses. 

I don't believe God, as revealed by the writers of the Bible, is in or behind any theology that would lead to the kind of violence and terrorism we've seen.  Unfortunately, some people who claim to be his are behind it.  Most of us aren't in a place to have an effect on what's going on in the middle east, but we can affect what's going on here, and for us, this is where it starts.  Look what's happening in Oregon.  Three weeks ago, a young, six year old Palestinian boy was murdered in a Chicago suburb because of his race.  Jewish rabbis approached his family and asked to come to his funeral as a statement of solidarity with the family.  

It does, indeed, start with us.

Democrats Better Keep a Hawk's Eye on Elections, with This Stuff Going On!

This editorial appeared in the October 29 edition of The Sierra Vista Herald, the only daily newspaper in Cochise County, Arizona.  Crosby is one of three county supervisors, two Republican, one Democrat, in a county where Republicans hold a little over half of the registered voter total.  Following the mid-term elections in 2022, the two Republicans, Crosby and Peggy Judd, threw an absolute fit over the vote counts from the county, even though the majority of the votes were Republican.  Following the Maga ignorance, they shrieked and threw fits over the machines used to count ballots, in spite of the fact that all of the evidence and auditing that was done showed there was no problem.  

Their insistence on hand-counting ballots, and on not certifying the election results until that could be accomplished almost led to not certifying something like 55,000 votes from the county.  That would have led to at least two Republicans who were elected, one to state office, one to Congress, not being elected, along with the disenfranchisement of every voter in the county.  

Crosby's and Judd's public statements and continued insistent on not believing facts staring them in the face made them and the county a laughing stock nationwide. But, far worse than that, it cost the county the services of a long-term election supervisor known for accuracy, efficiency and honesty, and a lawsuit over the work atmosphere the two supervisors had created leading to her resignation, which the county had to settle.  In addition to that, Crosby's continued insistence on not certifying the ballots, even when ordered by the court, led to additional lawsuits which has cost taxpayers into the hundreds of thousands of dollars.  

Both Crosby and Judd have proved that they are incapable of the public office they hold by staring the evidence of their folly right in the face and continuing to make comments that call their competence into question.  In this case, justice is coming.  The evidence is overwhelming, he's admitted to most of it and his refusal to certify in defiance of the state's supreme court is on the record.  At the very least, he and Judd will be ousted, and possibly imprisoned, that's how serious their crimes were.  

But people like this are in counties and precincts and states everywhere.  They are mindless automatons, incapable of rational thought or clear judgment, following the party loyalty line.  And they are going to do everything they can to keep votes from being counted, because they know that the politicians they support can't win on the strength of ballots alone.   

OUR VIEW:  The Cult of Tom Crosby 

Sierra Vista Herald, October 29, 2023

The megalomania that has defined Tom Crosby’s tenure on the Cochise County Board of Supervisors ascended to the rarefied air of messianic delusion this week. In response to a criminal grand jury subpoena sent to him — a sealed state document that Crosby, himself, leaked — the District 1 Supervisor told Herald/Review reporter Terri Jo Neff that he {span}is “praying for (Arizona Attorney General) Kris Mayes every day and I encourage others to do so as well.”

This passive aggressive facetiousness demeans the very sanctity of prayer itself and is a brand of arrogance that never ends well for a movement’s leader or his followers.

Crosby, who survived a recall attempt earlier this year and has a primary challenger awaiting him next year, campaigned on the always appealing rhetoric of cutting government spending, eliminating bureaucracy and standing up to the liberal policies of state and federal authorities who are always “threatening our very way of life.”

After sufficiently organizing and mesmerizing his followers, Crosby has proceeded to make a mockery of the trust we held in local elections; he has spit on the highly regarded reputation of the legal profession, denied his constituents — especially those of lesser financial means — the funding to improve health care, pursued meaningless disputes that have cost Cochise County taxpayers hundreds of thousands of dollars, and openly violated the sanctity of public transparency to benefit his agenda and assure its adoption.

Nonetheless, his arrogance has been bolstered. Responding to an action from Mayes, the highest-ranked law enforcement officer in all of Arizona, Crosby urged his followers to pity and pray for this wayward soul, all the while denying the authority her office holds over investigating his repeated disregard toward even the basics of open meeting laws.

The potential crimes the state is investigating Crosby for may go beyond open meeting law violations. In the fall of 2022, Crosby and fellow supervisor Peggy Judd were hellbent on making Cochise County the laughingstock of the nation by refusing to do their duty and certify the county’s election results. They also got hit with a lawsuit for ordering a hand count audit of all cast ballots, even though County Attorney Brian McIntyre told the board such an action was patently illegal.

This resulted in the BOS retaining private legal counsel with an initial payment due of $10,000.

Mysteriously, that item disappeared from the board’s agenda as a private party ended up picking up the tab instead, with no public naming of the source. This is yet another violation of the public trust and yet another example of Crosby’s certainty that the laws we all live by don’t apply to him.

He’s about to find out that they do.

Such arrogance, even if believed in sincerely, never ends well. Eventually the hubris leads both the exalted and the loyalists onto a path of failed martyrdom and shame.

History will repeat itself, sooner than later, we hope, and this dark period in Cochise County will only be remembered for its passionate idiocy.

The Sierra Vista Herald-Review, October 29, 2023