Chicago, America's third largest city, with a population larger than 16 states, will elect a mayor and council on February 28. With nine candidates in the mayor's race, including incumbent Mayor Lori Lightfoot, who is in a very tight race as a result of a low job approval rating, it is likely that the race will go to a runoff, and not be decided until April 4. Chicago is dominated by the Democratic party, something like 70% of the registered voters in the city limits are Democrats, and the constituencies don't always line up like they do with ethnic and racial populations nationally.
As a result of both the size of the city's population in relation to the cities and states that are in the same region, it's influence within the state of Illinois itself, including the power of the business and financial dealings in the city that dwarf the rest of the state, and the size of its influence on the nation's 6th most populous state, the most populous in the Midwest, what happens in Chicago city elections has an impact on the Democratic party in the region and in the country. And this election is turning out to be a very interesting one.
The incumbent mayor, Lori Lightfoot, ran four years ago as a genuine progressive during a time of police turmoil in the shadow of some high profile police incidents. Lightfoot terminated the previous chief of police Eddie Johnson, who had only served three years, for cause, and hired David Brown, a former chief of the Dallas police, as a permanent replacement. Brown hasn't been able to get a handle on internal difficulties, including shortages of personnel, and complaints about restrictions and disadvantages, and he and Lightfoot are paying a political price for an increase in the crime rate that isn't enough to make much of a media stir except for being against the backdrop of the violence that got out of hand following the George Floyd murder and after the COVID lockdown.
Being Mayor of Chicago hasn't really been a political career launching position. The city is so large, and has so much economic and political influence in the state of Illinois and in the whole upper Midwest, that the mayor's office ranks right up there with the governor and the state's two US Senators in terms of political influence. If Lightfoot, who is the city's first African American LGBTQ mayor, and only the second female and third African American mayor of the city, had any political ambitions beyond this point, she hasn't said much in public, and the media hasn't speculated.
But it is a very influential position among Democrats. By its population alone, one out of four of the state's legislative districts lie completely within the city limits with another four districts representing parts of it. Seven of the 17 congressional districts in Illinois contain a majority of their constituents in the city. Three recent governors, one US senator and one former US President count themselves as Chicago Democrats.
The two biggest issues that are unfolding in the mayor's race include the combination of police department reform and getting a handle on the crime rate, and on making significant changes in the city's public schools, which are managed by the municipal government. There's an inequitable distribution of resources in the school system, and for a "world class city" that is a major hub of finance, corporate headquarters, manufacturing, agriculture, retail, and transportation, the schools are lacking the ability to help their students transition into the local job market at the executive level.
There are nine candidates running. In recent polling, Lightfoot leads the field, at 25%, with Paul Vallas, former school superintendent, surging close behind at 22%. US Representative Chuy Garcia, the early frontrunner, has dropped to third, at 18%. The only other candidate out of the nine with double figures in polling is Brandon Johnson, a local businessman and previous mayoral candidate, at 10%. Only one of the candidates, Willie Wilson, is not a member of the Democratic party, he is an independent who is the preferred candidate of 9% of the voters. Only 10% say they are undecided.
Vallas would be the biggest departure from Lightfoot's progressive policies, and among the other Democrats in the field, has the weakest party credentials. His presence in the campaign has attracted the interest of the gigantic Chicago Teachers Union, which fought against Lightfoot's COVID policies for schools. The union has long advocated for an academic overhaul that would, among other things, bring a much larger vocational training presence in to the city schools, as well as focus heavily on skill levels where standardized test scores show the students are not making progress. Vallas has a lot of supporters in the union, as the former school superintendent.
Garcia, who now trails Lightfoot and Vallas in the polling, at 18%, has been connected to an investigation into former Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, and that is the likely reason for his drop in the polls as attack ads mentioning this contact have come from both Lightfoot and Vallas campaigns. Polls show that a two-way race between Lightfoot and Garcia would favor the latter, while she has a slight edge in head-to-head polling over Vallas. About 25% of Chicago voters are Latino, a constituency which heavily favors Garcia, but he actually has higher poll numbers among white voters, who make up over 35% of the electorate.
Garcia is the second US congressman from the city to run for mayor in recent years. Former Mayor Rahm Emanuel represented Illinois' 5th district, currently represented by Mike Quigley. Garcia represents the 4th district, immediately to the south and east.
There are no Republicans running in the mayor's race. So the issues which drive Chicagoans to the polls are likely to have an influence on voters looking ahead to 2024. The education issue is somewhat unique to the city, where the school system is not governed by an elected board, but by administrators chosen by the city council. Because teachers are city employees, they are ultimately under the mayor's authority. There has been a major push to change this structure in recent years and it ranks high on the list of voter's concerns. Lightfoot claims, by statistical analysis, that certain categories of crime are actually down in the city, technically true, but the perception, because of high profile attacks randomly occurring in more affluent and safer neighborhoods, since COVID, do not help support that contention. It is the top issue according to voters.
When gas prices soared last summer, one of the candidates, the only independent, non-Democrat in the race, local businessman Willie Wilson, spend about $5 million by announcing gasoline give-aways at several stations scattered throughout the city. Wilson claimed it was just to "help," not because he intended to run for mayor, which he announced later. Wilson sits at 9% of the vote, which is about where he polls every time he decides to run for office. He was a candidate for US Senate last November.
Keep an eye on Chicago. It will provide a wealth of campaign information for 2024.
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