White Evangelicals and Catholics Turn to Political Power to Compensate for Steep Decline in Membership, Influence

Robert Jones:  The Desperate Turn to MAGA by White, Evangelical Christians

The Desperate Turn to MAGA by White, Evangelical Christians 

Robert P. Jones is the author of a book published in 2016 called The End of White Christian America.  Coming out right at the time that Trump was elected President, the book actually chronicles the decline of conservative, white Christianity and concludes that a shift has occurred, at some point in the first decade of the 21st century, and that demographic changes and religious disaffiliation have led to America, for the first time in its history, no longer being a white, Christian majority country.  

That fact, according to Jones, is one of several reasons that white, conservative Evangelicals have become so extremist in their politics, turning to the MAGA political cult as their power wanes and their numbers continue to decline, rapidly according to the data provided by Jones.  It has been somewhat baffling to understand why white, conservative Evangelicals, in particular, have been willing to abandon their convictions, gathered from a literal interpretation of the Bible and the belief that it is the written word of God, infallible in its content and inerrant in its "original manuscripts," to support someone like Trump, whose worldly lifestyle and lack of values is the complete opposite of their worldview.  

The growth of megachurches in the eighties and nineties produced a deceptive picture of conservative, Evangelical Christianity.  While a few churches grew around the personalities and dramatic preaching of personalities, smaller congregations were having the life strangled out of them and were declining and closing their doors in increasing numbers.  For example, within the Southern Baptist Convention, membership and other church statistics are tracked as churches send in a form called the "annual letter."  Seeing their membership begin to decline around the middle of the first decade of the 21st century, they blamed the drop on an increasing number of churches not sending in their letter.  But the fact of the matter is that many of those churches in their previous records no longer existed to send them in.  In spite of the presence of megachurches within the denomination, membership in Southern Baptist churches has fallen by almost 3 million since its peak in 2006, and more than half of that drop has happened since 2010.  

This article provides a chart produced by the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) showing a sharp decline in the percentage of white Christians in the American population dropping from 54% in 2008, when Obama was first elected, to just 42% in 2022.  That would account for some of the political gains made by Democrats in recent years, though the party is still hobbled by gerrymandering that took place when Republicans overwhelmingly controlled state legislatures in 2010.  

That 42% figure represents all white Christian subgroups in America, including conservative Evangelicals, Catholics and mainline Protestants.  A second chart, which tracks the decline of Christian subgroups, shows that the sharpest, steepest declines in membership over the past decade have occurred among white, conservative Evangelicals.  Aging of churches has accompanied the decline as the median age of conservative, Evangelical churches is significantly older than the population at large.  A growing wave of next-generation adults, whom Evangelicals in particular have not been able to reach, is pushing the political pendulum to the left.  

So Here's Where the Sense of Desperation is Coming From

These numbers don't work for winning elections, without some strategic alliances, such as the odd mix of white Evangelicals with the rest of the MAGA crowd, mainly anti-social, paranoid conspiracy theorists and the corporate wealthy.  The gerrymandering wasn't just a product of political manipulation, many of the leaders and media personalities like Rush Limbaugh have advocated every possible means to cut democracy off at the knees and use the system to set up dominance by the minority, as they have seen this drop in numbers coming into the GOP's largest constituency for quite some time.  

So this attempt to overturn the constitution, falsely challenge election results and sow doubt and fear in people's minds is an attempt to solidify, and make permanent, the culture war issues like overturning Roe, through establishing an autocracy, manipulating the democratic process and if possible, gain just enough power to gerrymander districts, appoint extremist judges and block the majority from winning elections.  They know that they can no longer establish a "white, Christian America" by democratic means.  They are unwilling to accept the fact that they, like everyone else, has guaranteed religious liberty and freedom of conscience in a culturally, socially, economically and religiously pluralistic America.  

Here's a direct quote from Jones: 

(White, conservative Evangelical Christians) greatest temptation will be to wield what waning political power they have as a desperate corrective for their waning cultural influence.  If this happens, we may be in for another decade of closing skirmishes in the culture wars, but white Evangelical Christians will mortgage their future in a fight to resurrect the past.  

But as alluring as turning back the clock may seem to White Christian America's loyalists, efforts to resurrect the dead are futile at best--and at worst, disrespectful to its memory.  Like Mary Shelley's Frankenstein, resurrection by human power rather than divine spirit always produces a monstrosity. 

Evidence of the "Monstrosity" that Far Right Wing Conspiratorial Politics has Made of the Evangelical Churches in America

I grew up in a small, Southern Baptist church, outside the deep South, but with two thirds of the congregation being from there somewhere.  We were near a military base, and two of the larger local employers were based in Texas and Mississippi, so we had a lot of members from those two states.  Embedded in the instructional program of the church, through its Sunday school and through a program unique to Southern Baptists, called "Church training," I was taught Baptist history and the "distinctive" aspects of theology and doctrine. 

Baptists, unlike most denominations, including the Roman Catholic Church and most other Protestant denominations, do not have a central governing authority, like a presiding bishop or pope.  There are four core "freedoms" that distinguish Baptists, and many other Evangelicals, in this regard: 

Bible Freedom is the belief that every Christian has the ability to read, interpret and apply the principles of the Bible for themselves, within the context of the congregation to which they belong, guided by the leadership of God's Holy Spirit.

Soul Freedom is the belief that every individual is accountable to God individually, without the imposition of creed or consultation with clergy.  There is no "clergy" because there are no "sacraments" to administer on behalf of members.  Pastors and church leaders are called and ordained by the churches they serve.  

Church Freedom means that each individual church is free to determine its own doctrine, conduct its own worship and ministry, and function without connection to a hierarchy or to any other congregation.  Churches are ruled congregationally, usually by consensus of the membership.  

Christian Liberty is the belief that churches are free from any control or interference by the political state.  No laws sanction the practice of any religious belief and the church, is subject only to civil law and regulation, and not to any law dictating belief, doctrine or faith practice.  Baptists were influential in helping to establish the constitutional principle of religious liberty and of the separation of church and state in America.  

These have been historic Baptist principles, at the very core of Baptist identity, since Christians first appeared and were identified by the label "Baptist," in the 1600's.  Not only were these core principles taught in the church in which I grew up, and subsequently in churches where I was a member as an adult, but I had a comprehensive course in Baptist History in the Southern Baptist-related university I attended, and courses in both Baptist History and Baptist Church Polity at the Southern Baptist seminary from which I graduated.  

The political alliance that has formed on the right between some Evangelicals, including many Baptists, and the Trumpist brand of Republicanism, is exactly as Robert Jones describes it, a monstrosity.  Nothing about this resembles what I see as a church community, or even where we were in the days before churches became political action committees.  It's a failure to educate and inform and it has allowed individuals in political positions to claim "The government isn't supposed to tell the church what to do, the church is supposed to tell the government what to do."  Nothing characterizes this monstrosity more than that statement does.