Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Past Their Prime, Southern Baptists Are Rapidly Losing Members and Political Influence

The Southern Baptist Convention just wrapped up a two-day meeting in which they attempted to assert their conservative influence by signalling their approval for an overturning of the Obergefell v. Hodges decision that enshrined the right to same gender marriage in the United States.  There's been muttering and fussing at the current Supreme Court, hinting that in the current political atmosphere of extremist Trumpism, this might be something that can be done.  

Ironically, it was this focus, which took the form of a non-binding resolution passed by the messengers to the annual Southern Baptist Convention in Dallas this week, and not the denomination's abysmal failure to come up with workable solutions to resolve a nagging clergy sexual abuse crisis within the ranks of Southern Baptists, that grabbed most of the headlines.  In spite of claiming to be the "largest Protestant denomination in the United States," and one in which many leaders and members arrogantly claim spiritual superiority over other denominations because of their conservative doctrine, especially Catholics, Southern Baptists have been stymied in their efforts to even address the crisis in their midst, largely because their executive committee engaged in covering it up and diffusing the evidence because the denomination's structure is not hierarchial, and the denomination's executive committee has no authority over local church actions or decisions.  

The "Less Conservative" Southern Baptists Once Again Carried the Day 

The vast majority of Southern Baptists are doctrinally, theologically and politically far to the right.  It is an overwhelmingly white denomination, born when churches in the south left the Triennial Baptist Convention in protest over that body's decision not to permit slave-owners to serve as missionaries.  But there is a more educated element within it that has stepped away from the anti-education bias and influence of fundamentalism, and has, for about five straight convention meetings now, prevented the ultra-conservatives from having their way.  

The focus of the far-right wing over the past half-decade has taken two tracks to assert its influence.  One is to attempt to abolish the Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission, the SBC's lobby arm in Washington.  The other is to codify a conservative interpretation of the denomination's doctrinal statement, the Baptist Faith and Message 2000, into a bylaw that would exclude churches who have a woman on their ministerial staff using the title "pastor" or "elder."  Motions to bring these two actions about have met with consistent defeat at the hands of the messengers, representatives from churches who gather at the annual convention meeting.  

The third attempt to exclude women from the pastorate as a requirement of "friendly cooperation" went down to defeat on Wednesday afternoon, June 11, shortly after the attempt to defund and disband the ERLC was overwhelmingly defeated, giving its current leader, Brent Leatherwood, a vote of confidence. 

The consistent defeat of these fundamentalist-driven initiatives signals the waning influence of far right wing conservativism among Southern Baptists.  Their attack on Obergefell is an indication that they are still quite conservative, but they are apparently being more discerning and cautious as a result of the criticism they have had to endure over what amounts to a disastrous, confusing, and utter failure when it comes to the sexual abuse crisis in their churches.  Some Southern Baptists still seem to see humility as a virtue. 

Affirming the ERLC is an Indirect But Clear Distancing from Trumpism 

The ERLC, which functions as a political lobby primarily on religious liberty issues, was highly favored among Southern Baptists, until its executive director, Russell Moore, theologically, and correctly outlined why it was un-Christian and against the practice of the faith for Christians to support a defiant, morally bankrupt egomaniac like Trump for any public office.  Moore, unlike Al Mohler, the other prominent Southern Baptist anti-Trumper, stuck with his guns and only got more shrill and firm in his opposition to Trump as he took all kinds of personal attacks from Southern Baptists acting like heathens instead of Christians, in their anger and rage over Moore's public anti-Trump stance.  

Moore, ironically, landed on his feet, as editor of Christianity Today, with influence over a much broader segment of the American Christian faith community than he ever would have had over the shrinking Southern Baptist constituency.  But the anger and rage of some fundamentalist Trumpers in the SBC could not be tempered by principles of Christian faith and practice, and they turned against the ERLC trustees and staff that they themselves had elected.  

But the ERLC has some integrity, and a clear and narrow focus to which it has remained faithful.  The angry mob has never been able to gather enough support within the denomination to bring any actions that would either defund the ERLC, or disband it altogether, and today, the messengers overwhelmingly affirmed its leadership, work and influence.  Along with the third defeat of a motion to amend the constitution to ban churches that call women as pastors, it was a good afternoon for those in the Southern Baptist convention who, while they may be theologically and politically conservative, still practice the historic Baptist tradition of keeping politics out of the church. 

Along With Conservative Evangelicalism, Southern Baptist Political Influence is Waning as Its Membership and Attendance Drops Rapidly 

Various religious researchers have been telling us that the dangerous blend of right wing extremism with far right wing Evangelical conservatives has been causing the decline of church membership and attendance among conservative Evangelical churches, going all the way back to the Reagan administration.  But the sharpest declines in attendance and membership, almost 25% of those who self-identify as "conservative" or "Evangelical" in the United States, have taken place since Trump was first elected in 2016.  And while he remains popular among conservative Caucasian Evangelicals, there has been quite an exodus from churches by members who value their faith practice above the corruption of politics. 

The Southern Baptist Convention is a denomination that is meticulous in keeping statistical data.  A sharp drop in its overall membership and attendance, just under 25% of what was the total membership at its peak of 16.2 milliion in 2006, has finally caused alarm bells to ring.  And while their own researchers are loathe to associate this decline, the steepest in the history of the denomination, in a relatively short period of time, with the intrusion of Trumpism and its politics, which run completely counter to Christian principles and values, those who are leaving are happy to disclose their displeasure with this intrusion [see Jude v. 4].  

Southern Baptists, the largest of all Evangelical denominations, have seen their membership drop by 3.5 million since the peak in 2006, with over 3 million of that coming since Trump was first elected in 2016.  Any researcher who doesn't draw the conclusion that these rapidly dropping numbers clearly establish is in denial.  

But Southern Baptists using church membership as a measure of their numerical strength is misleading.  The fact of the matter is that in any typical Southern Baptist church, the membership is much greater than the average weekly attendance, and in fact, many of those who are on church rolls as members have either not attended the church in decades, or cannot even be found by the church clerk.  On any given Sunday, there are just over 4 million people sitting in the pews of a Southern Baptist church somewhere in the United States.  And over the course of a year's worth of Sundays, the total non-duplicated attendance number is around 5.5 million.  That means there are about 7 million members of Southern Baptist churches that are not active in the worship life of their church, and are not likely supporters or advocates of the denomination's theology, doctrine or political positions.  

And the attendance has taken quite a hit as well.  In 2006, at its peak, average weekly attendance in Southern Baptist churches for worship was 5.5 million.  So it is quite possible that political influence of the far right has pushed a fourth of the membership of its churches right out the door.  And there are some liberal, mainline Protestant denominations who are seeing a bump in their numbers as a result. 

And while those who are leaving the churches may not be putting aside conservative theology, there is evidence to suggest that those who are leaving are those who are among the more educated members of the churches.  Southern Baptists have an extensive system of colleges and universities, and six theological seminaries where the vast majority of pastors and church leaders are trained.  These are people who tend to object to the kind of stark condemnation in the language used in some resolutions that are considered by the denomination, especially pertaining to this year's advocacy for the overturning of Obergefell.  

"Love your neighbor as you love yourself," is part of what Jesus identified as the "greatest" commandment.  It is not easy to figure out how to do this, it is something Christianity has struggled to do, and has largely failed to do, over the course of most of its history.  Hating those who do not immediately accept the same matters of conscience as we do is much easier than figuring out how to love them as much as we love ourselves, and to accept the fact that our presence and influence in their lives may not be the catalyst that prompts their "conversion."  And yet, the command to love them does not get repealed or set aside.  It stays, as a permanent principle, the one way by which true believers in Christ are identified as Christian.  

Southern Baptists would be more effective in achieving their mission and purpose if they realized their theology, on this point, is at odds with that of Jesus Christ. 


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