In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the election by failing to overcome razor thin Republican margins in the "blue wall" states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. There was too much counting on tradition, and too little money spent and campaign time devoted to those three states that had been reliable for Clinton's predecessor, and for Democrats going all the way back to 1992. A couple of rallies, a few campaign offices, and she would have been the first female President of the United States.
So it is no surprise that the focus, in 2020 and now again in 2024, is on those three states, along with four others that have flipped their past tradition and supported Democrats in recent election cycles, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada.
There's a lot of talk about this election coming down to razor thin margins in these "battleground states" because of how close they were in 2016, and then again in 2020. But really? When it came down to it, Biden campaigned in all of them, and won Pennsylvania by over 80,000 votes, and Michigan by over 100,000. Wisconsin was close, just over 20,000, and that was the closest one that he actually needed to win the election. Arizona, Georgia and Nevada were closer, but he didn't really need them after Pennsylvania put him over 270.
The media is doing a lot of hollering and pointing attention to this microscopically close race in seven battleground states that will make the difference in who is elected President of the United States. "Razor thin" is the common phrase. And of course, they have their polls, those eternal polls, which, somehow always manage to fit the media's narrative better than they do the outcome of elections. They have their apologists, who will fine tune the numbers and twist the rhetoric to make it sound like the way to know how an election will turn out is to listen to them.
I don't think it is "razor thin." I think it's more wide open than it was in 2020. And there is evidence from other actual ballots having been cast to support this contention. Polls don't vote. Democrats do, and they have taken control of the politics in four of these battleground states since Biden won in 2020.
So I have a slightly different take than our somewhat biased media. It's based on reading between the lines, on data that we have and know how to interpret, on past voting patterns that polls often use to adjust their own numbers and it also contains some common sense. You're reading this as it is, a guess by an amateur who has a background teaching high school students government, economics and American History and who has watched, and observed trends and elections for 40 years. Take that for whatever it's worth.
Pennsylvania, the Eternal Battleground
Pennsylvania has been politically diverse since before the Revolutionary War. Shay's Rebellion, in the Western part of the state shortly after the Revolution, may have been a warning of what was to come.
I don't know what signs pollsters are looking at to make us think Pennsylvania may be wobbly for Democrats. Here's what I'm looking at.
Since Biden carried the state in 2020, Pennsylvania has moved in a decidedly Democratic direction. Democrats captured the state House after Republicans, at one point, held a supermajority. Tom Wolf, who originally defeated one-term Republican Tom Corbett in 2014, took a double-digit landslide win into the governor's office for a second term. Then, in 2022, Josh Shapiro, who had been Attorney General in Wolf's second term, won a double digit landslide, becoming the first back to back Democrats in the governor's mansion going back to the beginning of the 21st century.
Also, during this time, Pennsylvania's congressional delegation went from 5 Democrats and 13 Republicans to 9 Democrats, 8 Republicans. The state flipped its second senate seat in 2022, when John Fetterman won by 5% of the vote over Mehmet Oz, in a race that far exceeded the poll predictions of an Oz win.
So Democrats have gained ground in every election where ballots are actually cast in Pennsylvania, going back to 2018. With Josh Shapiro being Harris' primary surrogate in his state, and his approval rating soaring over 60%, it's easy to see Harris carrying Pennsylvania with a margin well over 100,000 votes.
Michigan, Where Democrats Get Women Elected to Office
The Democrats have won a hard fought ground battle in Michigan, initially campaigning against Republican leadership's gross mismanagement and mistakes, and then won re-election on their ability to GSD. Gretchen Whitmer, who is herself a potential Presidential contender at some point down the road, has led the way. Since Biden won in 2020, Michigan has replaced their Republican majority with a Democratic one, taken all of the state executive offices and won with larger re-election margins than the initial election. Biden won here in 2020 with a margin of 154,000 votes, 3% of the vote rounded up.
With approval ratings of the state government running in positive numbers, and the strength of a second term, solid Democratic governor along with strong candidates down ballot, including Representative Elisa Slotkin running for Senate, it's difficult to see Michigan being won by Trump. I'm comfortable saying it goes the other way, especially with an energized black voter electorate, and Harris wins by more than 250,000.
Wisconsin Looks So Much the Same
Wisconsin is in the second term of a popular Democratic governor's service to the state. This state, where the congressional districts and state legislative districts define the term "gerrymandered," is about to emerge from that hold as well. The key event in Wisconsin's electoral history since 2020, aside from the re-election of Evers and a complete Democratic sweep of every statewide office, was the election of Janet Protaciewicz to the Wisconsin Supreme Court, flipping its majority from Republican to Democrat. She won by 11 points, in a landslide. The implications of this, including redistricting the gerrymandered state and congressional districts, was huge.
So Wisconsin looks a lot like Michigan and Pennsylvania in many ways. I listen to a Wisconsin-based political talk show, "The Devil's Advocate," on WCPT Chicago in the evenings, and I give them partial credit for my prediction that Wisconsin may actually be "safe Democrat" for Harris.
"No one has ever seen the kind of crowds at Wisconsin rallies like Harris-Walz has."
I hope that doesn't sound too much like some other candidate.
Arizona's Rapidly Changing Political Landscape
In 1980, Arizona had 2.7 million people, 6 electoral votes and was 65% Republican, one of the highest percentages in the country. In 2020, Arizona had 7.4 million people, and while party registration still favored Republicans, the vote went for the Democrats, as Biden won by 15,000 votes. But the state continued trending to the left, when Katie Hobbs defied the polls and won election as governor in 2022. To say it's 50-50 now is no exaggeration, as every statewide seat except Superintendent of Public Instruction was won by Democrats.
I've always referred to Arizona, my home state, as the most politically backward in the nation. Straight Republican since 1952, including the 1964 disaster when favorite son Barry Goldwater barely carried his home state against Lyndon Johnson, it has a quirky past with Republican governors who couldn't stay out of prison.
But already a purple state, a large in-migration of people from both California and the Northeast makes it increasingly Democratic in outlook. It is on the verge of flipping both of the houses of the state legislature. Congressman Ruben Gallego, running for Sinema's abandoned Senate seat, has a sizeable lead over Kari "Loon" Lake. With Mark Kelly and Gabby Giffords as her surrogates, my best guess says Harris wins Maricopa County with an 80,000 vote margin, and carries the state by 40,000.
Nevada May Be As Close as a Turn of a Card or a Roll of the Dice
And then again...it may not be.
The Culinary Workers Union is the biggest mover of election priorities in Nevada. With a fairly popular Senator on the ballot, Jacky Rosen, and the endorsement of the union, in the largest population centers of the state, where 80% of the voters live, Harris has the advantage. It will be close here, probably closer than in other battleground states. But Harris has energized women voters, a large part of the Nevada electorate, and Latino voters, where polls show her percentage of support is as much as 6% higher than Biden's was.
Nevada does look a little different than the first four. It has a Republican governor, and the other Senator, Catherine Cortez-Masto, won a very close race in the mid-term for re-election. If the enthusiasm from the DNC can get this far, and the rally that Harris and Walz had in Las Vegas might be an indication of how contagious that was, then Nevada could continue to be a blue state.
Nevada works as a swing state in combination with Arizona or Wisconsin, adding 6 votes to Arizona's 11 and Wisconsin's 10. If she wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, then Arizona or Wisconsin is all she needs to put her over. Nevada is just icing on the cake.
Georgia May See a Surge in Black Voters Again
Like Arizona, Georgia is a state where rapid population growth has changed the makeup of the population and moved the state back toward having a majority of Democratic party voters. Though Georgia's statewide offices remain in Republican hands, since 2020, both senate seats have flipped to Democrats Jon Ossoff and Rev. Rafael Warnock. Biden carried the state narrowly, by the number of votes quoted by Trump minus one, 11,780 votes. The two senators won by a slightly higher margin and when the regular election for Warnock's seat came up again, he won a narrow but not quite as close election.
Harris has energized black voters. There is talk that she may get black voters back up to the level that Obama had in 2008, and 2012, seven percent higher than it was in subsequent elections, which made a difference. In addition to the black vote, Harris also has energized younger voters, which make up a higher percentage of Georgia's electorate than some of the surrounding red, southern states have.
Warnock depended on the metro Atlanta vote to win, but he succeeded in getting Democrats out to vote in many of the rural counties. Sometimes, it is the character of the candidate that makes the difference and in Georgia, that might just be the case once again. How much will the feud between Georgia's governor and secretary of state and Trump affect the GOP electorate?
Harris also has quite a ground game and a lot of volunteers in Georgia, far more than Trump has on the ground here. And she's gone after Democratic voters in rural areas that are usually very red. She got quite a reception on her bus tour of South Georgia, and that may be one of those things that makes a difference in a close race.
North Carolina has Also Shifted by Population Growth
Most of the state officers of North Carolina are Democrats, and since Trump barely won this state in 2020, it is a battleground again. The high percentage of black voters could push Harris over the top here, if they are as energized as they appear to be, and reach those 2008 Obama levels. That's enough to overcome the highest level of support Trump got here in 2020.
One of the huge issues in this state is women's healthcare choice. It ranks as high on the political issue list here as in almost any other state. And ironically, one of Harris' advantages in North Carolina is that Josh Stein, the Attorney General, the Democratic candidate for Governor, has a huge lead over Mark Robinson, the Lieutenant Governor, running on the GOP ticket. Two of the most recent polls have Stein at +10 and +11 respectively. That will help Harris.
So in my analysis, looking at the trends, I think North Carolina will be a +2 or +3 point win for Harris.
For What It's Worth, What About Florida and Texas?
As close as most of the available polling data indicate this race is in both of those states, I also understand why the media and the pollsters are not moving to talk more about them or to try and keep it appearing as if these are deep red states, when they're really not at all. Any big news about a polling shift in either state, both of which are absolutely essential to Trump, would throw his cash strapped campaign into chaos. Trying to defend those two states at the same level that a battleground state campaign requires would be fatal to Trump. So the media will wait as long as they can.
I don't need to wait. She's within the margins of error of most polls in both places. With hard line right wing state governments, and two governors who are almost as crazed and insane when it comes to power grabbing as Trump is, it doesn't seem likely that either state would flip. Texas' notoriously undemocratic, unpatriotic Attorney General, Ken Paxton, has tried to deplete the voter registration rolls by millions of voters, to make some margin for Trump. But the problem he is facing is that Beto O'Rourke, who, in two campaigns, one for Senate, one for governor, not only broke out of the mediocre percentages of Democratic votes, but also helped register millions of Democrats to vote, and has an ongoing registration campaign that is well past the half million mark in its most recent efforts.
The big question in both of these states is whether or not the results will get certified if Harris wins, especially if she lifts Collin Allred to a win, who leads over Cruz in the key senate race, and Debbie Murcarsel-Powell, who is running neck and neck with Rick Scott. We are dealing with Republicans who are more than willing to find ways to subvert the power of the people's vote if they think they can get away with it. And if either one of these hard line right wing governors, neither of which is known for their honesty and good character, decide to test the waters and see what happens if they try to put unelected electors in place to cast ballots. If I were in charge of the justice department, I'd send the FBI to enforce the law, and arrest them both if they failed to do their job.
Polling in Florida, if it can be trusted, is actually moving toward Harris and Democratic candidates for office, especially Murcarsel-Powell, who leads in some polls now. I hope Democrats in the state are immediately and powerfully ready to face down Desantis and the state officers and force certification once the ballot count has been confirmed. And the same goes for Texas.
So Yes, I'll Pick 'Em
With Democratic state administrations, I think Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are safe for Harris. Winning those eliminates her need for any other battleground state. But I think she's going to get the other three as well.
And that might be overly optimistic. The again, it may not be accurately estimating what Harris and Walz, and their campaign have brought to the table.
I always though Biden's presidency would be transitional. We needed relief, badly, from the incompetent, inept, ineffective and dangerous Trump, who showed he could not be trusted the day he visited the North Korean dictator and determined to make that a centerpiece of his foreign policy. When it didn't appear that there would be a move within the Democratic party to reorganize a campaign for 2024, and Biden decided to run again, I was fully supportive. And I still believe that had he stayed in, he would have beaten Trump. I may be setting myself up for disappointment, but I've never believed Trump has the character to convince enough of the American people he can handle the job. I don't think he did in in 2016, and that's why the Mueller Report and everything associated with his election has been covered up, never to see the light of day.
And there's the whole issue of Trump's age, stamina and competency. Age and claims of hiding dementia in Biden were harsh media criticisms a month ago. Now, with an obviously unhinged, demented, senile Trump, that no longer seems to be an issue. Well, so the media might have moved that to the back page to protect Trump. But it may also backfire with a vengeance. He can't hide among his MAGA crowd forever, or he won't win.
I not only believe Harris will win, 7% more of the popular vote and over 300 electoral votes, but she will also have long enough coattails to bring the Democratic controlled senate with her and get the House back under Democratic party control.
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